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Biden up 16 points in CNN poll

Crazyhole

Crazyhole

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Does anybody think this is actually realistic? This basically would mean that Biden is more popular than Obama or Reagan were and that Trump is more unpopular than any incumbent in history. I just can't believe either of those two things are possible, let alone both being true at the same time.
 
firm_bizzle said:
He's polarizing. Very popular with 42%, Very unpopular with 55%.
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Objectively though, it's very hard to quantify what the unpopularity means. I know people who absolutely can't stand him or his rabid base, but who are still going to vote for him. I would imagine people like that get thrown into the 55%.
 
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firm_bizzle said:
He's polarizing. Very popular with 42%, Very unpopular with 55%.
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On the flip side, how "very popular" is Biden? It can't be 55-60%, can it? I would think that level would be reserved for a transformational candidate like Obama, but in this scenario it would be even moreso. 16 points nationally would mean 450 EC votes or more. That just seems impossible to me.
 
Crazyhole said:
On the flip side, how "very popular" is Biden? It can't be 55-60%, can it? I would think that level would be reserved for a transformational candidate like Obama, but in this scenario it would be even moreso. 16 points nationally would mean 450 EC votes or more. That just seems impossible to me.
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This isn't an "A vs B election", it's a "Do you like or dislike A election". As VPOTUS you'd already cross the threshold of being qualified to be POTUS.
 
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OLearyLastCall said:
Trump has very consistently had 42% of support. Giving him the incumbent boost, I'd say his ceiling is about 45% at absolutely most. That means we're looking at Biden getting 53-54ish% of the vote. It's possible.
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I would put Trump's absolute max ceiling at 46% and Biden's floor at 47%. This is Trump's only shot but with no strong 3rd party candidate Biden will be at 53-54% like you said.
 
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firm_bizzle said:
but with no strong 3rd party candidate
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Capture.jpg
 
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Crazyhole said:
On the flip side, how "very popular" is Biden? It can't be 55-60%, can it? I would think that level would be reserved for a transformational candidate like Obama, but in this scenario it would be even moreso. 16 points nationally would mean 450 EC votes or more. That just seems impossible to me.
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Polls dont measure popularity, they measure who people are going to vote for. Biden doesnt have to be overly popular, for Trump to be very unpopular.
 
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Franklin Pearce / Boston Herald poll had a really interesting split they published. The poll ran Sept 30 thru Oct 4.

The polling done prior to Trump's diagnosis was running 46-41. The polling done after was 55-34 !!! The net poll result was 51-37.

I saw some comment about another poll that had a similar (but not as extreme) type of swing.

In no way do I expect Biden to win the popular vote by 20%, but it does make me wonder if this is the nail in the coffin. We know Trump is bleeding in the suburbs, particularly among women.

I can see plenty edge Republican leaners being put over the edge here. The debate just sort of reinforced what you already knew about Trump, so that might not have really added new information.

But these are the same voters putting their kids in masks every day to go to school, avoiding crowds, wearing masks in their day-to-day activities, and generally trying to do their part to be responsible. Trump is painting a pretty stark contrast.
 
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Boosted87 said:
Franklin Pearce / Boston Herald poll had a really interesting split they published. The poll ran Sept 30 thru Oct 4.

The polling done prior to Trump's diagnosis was running 46-41. The polling done after was 55-34 !!! The net poll result was 51-37.

I saw some comment about another poll that had a similar (but not as extreme) type of swing.

In no way do I expect Biden to win the popular vote by 20%, but it does make me wonder if this is the nail in the coffin. We know Trump is bleeding in the suburbs, particularly among women.

I can see plenty edge Republican leaners being put over the edge here. The debate just sort of reinforced what you already knew about Trump, so that might not have really added new information.

But these are the same voters putting their kids in masks every day to go to school, avoiding crowds, wearing masks in their day-to-day activities, and generally trying to do their part to be responsible. Trump is painting a pretty stark contrast.
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I think the debate was the last opportunity Trump had to turn things around. Maybe he knows that? What he is doing now (and until the election), might turn a 5 point loss into a ~20 point loss. Stay tuned.
 
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Doubt Trump wants to win honestly. He’s trying to limp the stock market to the finish line so he can claim a successful presidency. The next 4 years will have a lot of economic cleanup to do and we will still be dealing with Covid next year as well. We haven’t seen the full brunt of the economic impact in the equities sector because people have been moving savings from traditionally safe investment vehicles into equities because the safe investments now return nothing. This can only buoy the market for so long.
 
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Boosted87 said:
these are the same voters putting their kids in masks every day to go to school, avoiding crowds, wearing masks in their day-to-day activities, and generally trying to do their part to be responsible. Trump is painting a pretty stark contrast.
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It's completely irresponsible behavior, especially for someone who is supposed to be leading this country.

The only good thing about it is that he's helping us avoid any Constitutional crisis surrounding the vote.
 
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hemightbejeremy said:
Doubt Trump wants to win honestly. He’s trying to limp the stock market to the finish line so he can claim a successful presidency. The next 4 years will have a lot of economic cleanup to do and we will still be dealing with Covid next year as well. We haven’t seen the full brunt of the economic impact in the equities sector because people have been moving savings from traditionally safe investment vehicles into equities because the safe investments now return nothing. This can only buoy the market for so long.
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They are forecasting a huge recession next year. I'm sure that Trump will be tweeting next spring about how poorly Biden is doing. The fed has said that they won't raise interest rates for 3 years and the Dems will probably pass $10-12T in stimulus over the next couple of years. Covid will hopefully be over in the Spring 2022 and things can get back to normal.
 
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firm_bizzle said:
They are forecasting a huge recession next year. I'm sure that Trump will be tweeting next spring about how poorly Biden is doing. The fed has said that they won't raise interest rates for 3 years and the Dems will probably pass $10-12T in stimulus over the next couple of years. Covid will hopefully be over in the Spring 2022 and things can get back to normal.
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Lol.
 
ElprofesorJuan said:
If He loses Florida he is done....He needs Florida. If the Hispanic vote comes out He won't win. Will they vote who knows.
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While I do not disagree with you about this, I would be willing to bet this state is a repeat of 2000 where it's a very slim margin of victory--for either one.

Even if he takes FL, Donald has problems elsewhere. I don't think he will sweep Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina like he did in 2016. I mean look, it's possible--anything is in this year--but I don't think that sweep is in the cards this go-around.

We shall see...
 
ElprofesorJuan said:
If He loses Florida he is done....He needs Florida. If the Hispanic vote comes out He won't win. Will they vote who knows.
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Hispanic men seem to favor Trump. Florida is always close. If there were an election between ice cream and a kick in the head, it would be 50.1% ice cream to 49.9% kick in the head.
 
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How tone deaf does Trump have to be to publicly say that catching the corona virus "was a blessing"? WTF?
 
Something about all of these polls doesn't seem right. Biden may win, but there is no way that Trump is going to get a lower percentage of republican votes than any candidate since GHWB (who had to run against Perot). Republican voter registration in PA, MI, WI, and FL is outpacing what we saw in 2016. Why would people be registering republican just to vote against the party? Trump got 88% of the republican vote in 2016 and now he's only going to get 76% even with increased republican registration? Do you know anyone that voted for Trump last time but is voting for Biden this time?

Something about this doesn't add up.
 
Crazyhole said:
Something about all of these polls doesn't seem right. Biden may win, but there is no way that Trump is going to get a lower percentage of republican votes than any candidate since GHWB (who had to run against Perot). Republican voter registration in PA, MI, WI, and FL is outpacing what we saw in 2016. Why would people be registering republican just to vote against the party? Trump got 88% of the republican vote in 2016 and now he's only going to get 76% even with increased republican registration? Do you know anyone that voted for Trump last time but is voting for Biden this time?

Something about this doesn't add up.
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I know plenty of people who voted for Trump last time and will be voting for Biden this time. I think you underestimate the number of people who hated Hillary that much. It's probably the biggest single factor that Biden has going for him.
 
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KnighttimeJoe said:
I think a more thorough dose of humility would have been better to appeal to anyone out there who might be undecided.
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This is what's frustrating. He should've run away with this election but he's simply incapable of not being a lunatic. It's just not in his DNA.

His supporters respond with, "well what would you do if you were attacked unfairly and mercilessly since day 1?" I get it and I can 100% agree the media and others have gone out of their way to make sure he's disparaged and never given credit for anything. And yet here we are...

Nobody ever said rising above it is easy but my God does he not do himself any favors. Yall can be upset about that and say get over it but is the goal to be right or win?
 
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