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Big 12 Expansion Update...

IsOwenThere

Four-Star Recruit
Dec 11, 2015
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"J ‏@UCONNfan145h5 hours ago

According to dude of WV: 6 schools have been contacted since announcement: UH/BYU/CINCY/UCONN/CSU/USF what is missing from that list MEMPHIS"

Can you guys think of another worthy school that may have been omitted?
 
The dude of WV. Now that is a reliable source. Waiting for a comment from dude of South Dakota.
 
The dude of WV. Now that is a reliable source. Waiting for a comment from dude of South Dakota.
The Dude from South Dakota is our Big Ten insider. He probably won't have much information for us on the Big 12...
 
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. If the next generation of media rights is streaming, and UCF is already making arrangements to broadcast their sports via streaming content, we may be able to rely on our students and alumni as the second largest university and in the country to garner enough revenue that we don't need a P-5 conference affliation to succeed. We shouldn't need to pimp ourselves to the Big 12 and be UT's and OU 's bitc*, like the rest of the big 12 and expansion candidates. The Big 12 has no vision, no leadership, and deserves to be exactly where they are as the weak little sisters which are the 5th wheel in the P-5 landscape. The Big 12 will be the first casualty during the next round of conference consolidation in 2025. UT and OU will then preen for inclusion in the B1G and SEC and jump ship leaving their former conference mates holding the bag and scrambling to assemble the next rung of a mid major conference behind the already established AAC.
 
I agree with what you are saying but if we are offered a seat at the Big12 table, you can't turn down the $ that comes with that. So let's say UT and Oklahoma jump ship in 2026, we still have a lot more $ for the program and are in a much better position to go to the ACC or even SEC from another P5 conference.
 
The Dude from South Dakota is our Big Ten insider. He probably won't have much information for us on the Big 12...
I agree with what you are saying but if we are offered a seat at the Big12 table, you can't turn down the $ that comes with that. So let's say UT and Oklahoma jump ship in 2026, we still have a lot more $ for the program and are in a much better position to go to the ACC or even SEC from another P5 conference.

Agreed, we wouldn't turn down the $ and be in better financial shape, but if we don't receive that invite all is not lost. I think that we would be in a better position after the Big 12 loses P-5 status (after UT and OU leave) than other schools located in such large urban centers such as Ames, Manhattan (Kanas), Lubbock etc.... Irrespective of their former association with the Big 12.
 
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..., but if we don't receive that invite all is not lost. I think that we would be in a better position after the Big 12 loses P-5 status (after UT and OU leave) than other schools located in such large urban centers such as Ames, Manhattan (Kanas), Lubbock etc.... Irrespective of their former association with the Big 12.

[cheers]
 
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The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. If the next generation of media rights is streaming, and UCF is already making arrangements to broadcast their sports via streaming content, we may be able to rely on our students and alumni as the second largest university and in the country to garner enough revenue that we don't need a P-5 conference affliation to succeed.
Not at all possible. The P-5 power today means it's get in or be relegated to the peanut gallery. The control the rankings, and the only post-season games that pay out 95% of the bowl money. It definitely looks like the NCAA has been forced to virtually cede much of its power to the P-5. With the P-5 moving to pseudo-paying its players and severely limiting OOC games to mostly other P-5 opponents, we've already moved to a de facto 2-division split between the half of I-A division teams in P-5 conferences and those on the outside looking in.

When UCF went from 1-AA to 1-A, there were fewer than 100 1-A schools. Now there are nearly 130, with nearly all non-P-5 programs losing millions a year. At UCF and USF, over 40% of operating costs are borne by students in outrageous student fees per credit hour. As SEC's UF, they wealthy students have to cover only 3% of athletic program costs. Most other of these 70 non-P-5 sports programs are also between a rock and a hard place. Remain mediocre and still lose revenue because of low revenue, or raise your revenue by pouring added millions into facilities, personnel, equipment, and marketing which balloons your costs, may still not be successful. Even if you enjoy success, P-5 conferences always hire away your winning coaches because were are their minor leagues develop P-5 future coaches. So if you grandfathered your way into a P-5 conference, like MSU, Washington St., or Vandy, you're set for life.
 
Not at all possible. The P-5 power today means it's get in or be relegated to the peanut gallery. The control the rankings, and the only post-season games that pay out 95% of the bowl money. It definitely looks like the NCAA has been forced to virtually cede much of its power to the P-5. With the P-5 moving to pseudo-paying its players and severely limiting OOC games to mostly other P-5 opponents, we've already moved to a de facto 2-division split between the half of I-A division teams in P-5 conferences and those on the outside looking in.

When UCF went from 1-AA to 1-A, there were fewer than 100 1-A schools. Now there are nearly 130, with nearly all non-P-5 programs losing millions a year. At UCF and USF, over 40% of operating costs are borne by students in outrageous student fees per credit hour. As SEC's UF, they wealthy students have to cover only 3% of athletic program costs. Most other of these 70 non-P-5 sports programs are also between a rock and a hard place. Remain mediocre and still lose revenue because of low revenue, or raise your revenue by pouring added millions into facilities, personnel, equipment, and marketing which balloons your costs, may still not be successful. Even if you enjoy success, P-5 conferences always hire away your winning coaches because were are their minor leagues develop P-5 future coaches. So if you grandfathered your way into a P-5 conference, like MSU, Washington St., or Vandy, you're set for life.

I get what you're saying, but I'm talking about revenue sources, and to counter your statement that its "not at all possible," I've got two words for you. Boise State.
 
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I get what you're saying, but I'm talking about revenue sources, and to counter your statement that its "not at all possible," I've got two words for you. Boise State.
And the reply: that was before the P-5 made such things impossible, no matter what color your field is. And of course, Boise lost it's coach Peterson to Washington (just like most non-P-5 top do) which ended its future dreams. Also, no way they could get the strength of schedule anymore as P-5 teams increasingly must play each other OOC. The preseason coaching poll has only non-P-5 Houston ranked. That even deprives them of big pay days to be human sacrifices at P-5 Coliseums.
 
If the Big does decide to expand, which at this point they have not (though it seems likely) it is entirely possible the mothership will seek to destroy this conference in 2026 when the Big 12 GOR is up. Remember it wasn't that long ago that the Big East was offered a very decent TV contract, I think it was somewhere between 16-19 mil/ school, and the Big East sought to shop their rights. ESPN then "encouraged" Pitt and Syracuse to leave the conference. IMO it is likely ESPN will do the same thing to the Big 12 if they force ESPN to pay them $1 billion for a 4 team expansion (I know they split the cost with Fox). My guess is they would throw a pile of cash at OU and UT to join the SEC. The SEC network is entirely ESPN. Fox owns the majority of the Big 10 network- 51%. So I would imagine ESPN would do what they could to try and prevent OU and Texas from joining the Big 10.
 
So I would imagine ESPN would do what they could to try and prevent OU and Texas from joining the Big 10.
Recall that UT tried the SEC on for size balked when they discovered they'd be just one among several equals; and the SEC made it clear they could live without their outrageous demands. So Texas decided it wants lots of control and deference, which means a conference where it's the unchallenged top banana. That's why even an Oklahoma threat to leave for the Big 10 or SEC (or PAC 12?) won't get UT to budge. Perhaps they have deceived themselves to believe they could pull a one-team conference in football like Notre Dame if Kansas and Oklahoma are raided (i.e., the choice stuff left in the Big 12). That's why I say it is silly to attempt to forecast what they do about expansion because they will immediately regret whatever they decide.
 
And the reply: that was before the P-5 made such things impossible, no matter what color your field is. And of course, Boise lost it's coach Peterson to Washington (just like most non-P-5 top do) which ended its future dreams. Also, no way they could get the strength of schedule anymore as P-5 teams increasingly must play each other OOC. The preseason coaching poll has only non-P-5 Houston ranked. That even deprives them of big pay days to be human sacrifices at P-5 Coliseums.

With attitudes like yours we'd still be under British rule, we would have never put a man on the moon, Boise State wouldn't be receiving 73 votes in the coaches preseason poll, and Al Gore would have never "invented" the internet!
 
Recall that UT tried the SEC on for size balked when they discovered they'd be just one among several equals; and the SEC made it clear they could live without their outrageous demands. So Texas decided it wants lots of control and deference, which means a conference where it's the unchallenged top banana. That's why even an Oklahoma threat to leave for the Big 10 or SEC (or PAC 12?) won't get UT to budge. Perhaps they have deceived themselves to believe they could pull a one-team conference in football like Notre Dame if Kansas and Oklahoma are raided (i.e., the choice stuff left in the Big 12). That's why I say it is silly to attempt to forecast what they do about expansion because they will immediately regret whatever they decide.

Texas will probably leave the Big 12 once the money begins to dry up (speculation).

Texas makes about $15 million per year (increasing to $20 million plus) from the LHN which has a contract with ESPN through 2031. ESPN is losing money (about $48 million so far) on the LHN so it probably won't be renewed.

The Big 12 has a contract with Fox and ESPN which expires in 2025 along with the Big 12 GOR's.

FOX and ESPN are pushing back on the "pro-rata" clause and are threatening to go to court on the Big-12 money grab (article:TV networks pushing back on Big 12 expansion (8/1/16) if interested it is listed in a thread on the Pitt board). Edit: I just noticed this article has been discussed in another thread.
Additionally, Fox and ESPN are saying they may not support the Big 12 when they have to renew in 2025 if expansion takes place. FOX and ESPN could also agree to pay the Big 12 additional money to stay at a 10 member Big 12.

Have to wait to see how this all plays out because of Network involvement (money issues).

In 2023 Texas may say they are leaving in 2025 and could go to where they want (B1G,PAC,SEC and ACC).

I think the ACC has a shot because ESPN who broadcasts the LHN and ACCN (2019) could incorporate the LHN into the ACCN and pay Texas even more money.
It also could be possible that Notre Dame and Texas join the ACC together.

Other Big 12 teams are concerned about this (aka Oklahoma) and developing their own strategy if they have to leave.

Again have to wait to see how it all plays out.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
 
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With attitudes like yours we'd still be under British rule, we would have never put a man on the moon, Boise State wouldn't be receiving 73 votes in the coaches preseason poll, and Al Gore would have never "invented" the internet!
to quote donald and bernie, it's rigged! So it's better to become a rigger than than remain a riggee.
 
I agree with what you are saying but if we are offered a seat at the Big12 table, you can't turn down the $ that comes with that. So let's say UT and Oklahoma jump ship in 2026, we still have a lot more $ for the program and are in a much better position to go to the ACC or even SEC from another P5 conference.
The benefit is not only $$, but also the higher profile in conference competition and the resulting enhanced recruiting leverage.
 
The benefit is not only $$, but also the higher profile in conference competition and the resulting enhanced recruiting leverage.
But that also translates to dollars. Recruiting is easier and more successful and generating more revenue. Better competition gets us more lucrative cable contracts, more donors, higher gate revenue at much pricier rates, more concession sales. If Frost is successful, we won't automatically lose him to a P-5 school because we'll be one and we can pay him and his asst. coaching talent more.
 
What may defeat the point of revenue streams is, how many graduates actually will pay for it? Surely UCF has enough graduates by now to constantly fill the stadium. Constant sell-out. But, it rarely happens. I wonder what % of graduates pay attention to our sports. If we don't move up, that % won't change and will probably remain low, because the P5 or 16 team P4 will circle their wagons and stop playing G5. Hence, we still have the "who-cares" coming to play at home. We move up, the casual "fans" start paying attention and come watch us play Texas etc. The online revenue stream won't be anywhere close to Big 12 $ until we play someone the casual fan has heard of. FIU won't cut it.
 
What may defeat the point of revenue streams is, how many graduates actually will pay for it? Surely UCF has enough graduates by now to constantly fill the stadium. Constant sell-out...

I think two things must change to turn attendance around and make it a hot ticket, "must see" event:
1. There needs to be some sort of participatory activity for folks in the stands. Canned, cheesy commercially-sponsored contests and scoreboard games get old fast. In the first few years, it was zombie nation stomping in the stands that made fans know they could be deafening enough to beat almost anyone. But since they tightened all the lug nuts just so the place won't collapse and kill everyone (what wimps!), students felt it wasn't nearly as cool anymore, even when we were beating everyone. What can we do to re-create a "be there or be square" atmosphere. How about new types of cheers with dueling sections? A new Zombie Nation type of theme song? Some strictly UCF inside joke gestures, signs, or cheers that makes opponents and visiting media scratch their heads?
2. End the empty sections of elite corporate donor seats on the sidelines of football and basketball. Anyone who doesn't go through the turnstiles by, say, 10 minutes before game time, has their seats available to students (just like airlines and many venues do). Start a tradition of students lining up to go to those sideline seating areas first (they tailgate til the last minute anyway). The other benefit would be to prevent fans from strolling in during the second quarter and wake up the sleeping sideline "fans" who never stand and cheer. Students are already paying a hefty athletic fee, so let them get a chance at a decent seat, too! Long lines to get in, first come, first serve for students would increase the anticipation of the game ahead. That's what we students used to do when I was at college eons ago.
 
The water gets muddy before it gets clear as UCF gets visit today...

http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2016/...2-expansion-cincinnati-houston-oklahoma-texas

The above article claims no BYU and CINN given to Oklahoma rep.
Another article claims SMU is battling UH for slot within state legislation.
Another article claims Kansas doesn't want to compete with UH for Big 12 recruits.
Another article claims that it's hard to get 8 schools to vote for any of the choices.
Another article claims that only 2 teams will get selected due to TV.
All the articles speak about 0-12 UCF record.

I've always liked us being the underdog. At least that's in our favor :)
...
 
The water gets muddy before it gets clear as UCF gets visit today...
Another article claims Kansas doesn't want to compete with UH for Big 12 recruits.
Another article claims that it's hard to get 8 schools to vote for any of the choices./QUOTE]
Question: What to keep a Kansas and Oklahoma from getting so bummed out by this chaos that they make overtures to jump to the PAC12, which is still 2 teams down from 14? Right now, rather than 2026! Can't they do that, or does the Big 12 have an ACC raid-proof contract clause for its conference members?
 
I think two things must change to turn attendance around and make it a hot ticket, "must see" event:
1. There needs to be some sort of participatory activity for folks in the stands. Canned, cheesy commercially-sponsored contests and scoreboard games get old fast. In the first few years, it was zombie nation stomping in the stands that made fans know they could be deafening enough to beat almost anyone. But since they tightened all the lug nuts just so the place won't collapse and kill everyone (what wimps!), students felt it wasn't nearly as cool anymore, even when we were beating everyone. What can we do to re-create a "be there or be square" atmosphere. How about new types of cheers with dueling sections? A new Zombie Nation type of theme song? Some strictly UCF inside joke gestures, signs, or cheers that makes opponents and visiting media scratch their heads?
2. End the empty sections of elite corporate donor seats on the sidelines of football and basketball. Anyone who doesn't go through the turnstiles by, say, 10 minutes before game time, has their seats available to students (just like airlines and many venues do). Start a tradition of students lining up to go to those sideline seating areas first (they tailgate til the last minute anyway). The other benefit would be to prevent fans from strolling in during the second quarter and wake up the sleeping sideline "fans" who never stand and cheer. Students are already paying a hefty athletic fee, so let them get a chance at a decent seat, too! Long lines to get in, first come, first serve for students would increase the anticipation of the game ahead. That's what we students used to do when I was at college eons ago.


Unfortunately all that kind of proves my point. If you need gimmicks to get butts in the seats then you'll get a mediocre online presence. If there's "nothing" to watch on the field and you need some stupid beach ball, or the wave, or some other gimmick to try to get some twit who couldn't care less about the school he's going to, to come to the game, then he' just going to keep on watching uf or fsu once he graduates. In those moron type of people, you're not playing football unless you're playing someone I've heard about. Floridians like to think they're football-mad but they aren't. They only madly follow UF, FSU and a small amount Miami, or some other known commodity. If you are truly football mad they'd watch any game they can regardless of celebrity status. (I'm not, I don't even watch the Super Bowl if there isn't a UCF grad in it)
 
Question: What to keep a Kansas and Oklahoma from getting so bummed out by this chaos that they make overtures to jump to the PAC12, which is still 2 teams down from 14? Right now, rather than 2026! Can't they do that, or does the Big 12 have an ACC raid-proof contract clause for its conference members?
With the GOR signed by the Big 12 a few years back, those schools would forfeit any TV contract dollars they got in a new league. I believe the Big 12 GOR is up after the 2024-2025 year. Might be 2025-2026.
The new ACC GOR would also include concessions, and gate sales. Nobody is leaving the ACC for another 20 years, including Notre Dame. As part of the ACC GOR, if Notre Dame were to join a conference, it has to be the ACC.
All of this is assuming that GOR contracts are iron clad. There may be a few schools (and a network) they may challenge this towards the end of the GOR.
 
Unfortunately all that kind of proves my point. If you need gimmicks to get butts in the seats then you'll get a mediocre online presence. If there's "nothing" to watch on the field and you need some stupid beach ball, or the wave, or some other gimmick to try to get some twit who couldn't care less about the school he's going to, to come to the game, then he' just going to keep on watching uf or fsu once he graduates. In those moron type of people, you're not playing football unless you're playing someone I've heard about. Floridians like to think they're football-mad but they aren't. They only madly follow UF, FSU and a small amount Miami, or some other known commodity. If you are truly football mad they'd watch any game they can regardless of celebrity status. (I'm not, I don't even watch the Super Bowl if there isn't a UCF grad in it)
Sorry. Sport is ONLY entertainment in it's the purest form, because it doesn't affect anything in the world (even in the case of the Olympics). It is incapable of ever mattering. That's why we (or at least guys) love it. Total escapism like Suicide Squad or a Van Halen concert. Escape from everything that does matter, stresses us out at work, argument with a spouse, dealing with a teenage daughter (where's my panic pills?), worrying about either of two power-crazied equally-hated nominees getting elected, fear of climate change, worry if you'll be able to retire.

80s Knight, we both absolutely agree. Gimmicks, and lame ones at that, are what we now have at Football and Basketball games. UCF fans DID not come when we were winning, nor does winning affect attendance at Michigan, Ohio State. They attend because they have "bought in" to the team like we do to our favorite band or the cable show we binge watch. "Spectator" sports are long gone. You can get that at a sports bar or in your man cave. You fight traffic and put up with heat or rain because it is YOUR team. You don't go to a game because you have a bet on it or its the only thing out there. You attend because at least for those 3 hours, you share there triumphs and failures.
 
As if Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas schools would care about offending anyone. But it ain't happening because UT has made it clear they won't ever consider BYU.

Keep in mind, the population of those states are not making the call, the Presidents of the universities are.
 
just read a blurb that B12 officials are at UCF today

Brad Crawford ‏@BCrawford247 22m22 minutes ago
Source tells me Big 12 reps are on campus at UCF today, looking around for feasibility survey. Bunch of enhancements this week, too.

seeing the Campus in person can only help UCF vs just going over feasibility reports that are mailed in
 
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