UCF +1 vs. BYU
The 7-0 Cougars have to be toward the top of the list of 2024 college football surprises in a season that has had many.
With that said, I’m not fully buying into this BYU team that has benefited from as much turnover luck as any team in the country.
It’s gone 3-0 in one-possession games and probably should’ve lost at home against a beat-up Oklahoma State team last week, especially if Garret Rangel and Ollie Gordon II don’t get hurt.
Even the blowout wins on the surface were extremely misleading with the two most obvious examples coming against Arizona and Kansas State.
The Cougars won those games by a combined 52 points despite being outgained, 656-630, thanks to a +6 turnover margin, 1-for-7 opponent fourth-down conversion rate and multiple non-offensive scores.
That’s simply not sustainable.
Speaking of unsustainable, quarterback Jake Retzlaff continues to put the ball in harm’s way too frequently, which will eventually come back to bite him harder than it has to date for an offense that grades out below the national average in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate.
However, the biggest mismatch for me comes on the other side of the ball.
UCF features one of the best rushing attacks in the country (top five in both EPA and Success Rate), which should cause major problems for a BYU defense that has really struggled to defend opposing ground games.
That’s especially true when it comes to opponents with mobile quarterbacks, which the Knights certainly have with new starter Jacurri Brown, who ran for 154 yards last week against Iowa State.
He and RJ Harvey should pose major problems for a BYU defense that really struggles to set the edge.
I was really impressed with UCF’s effort in Ames last week in a game it arguably should have won.
Looking back, its three losses prior to that have aged much better than they looked at the time with Florida, Colorado and Cincinnati all trending up.
And keep in mind those all came before UCF made the official quarterback change, which I think makes this team much more dangerous.
Give me the Knights in a coin-flip in the Bounce House, where they have historically thrived in these exact spots.
from Link:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ot...s-indiana-illinois-vs-oregon-more/ar-AA1sOE8a