Chances of winning 1, 2, or all 3 games: Revised probabilities

[UCFProf]

With a win vs. Tulane and revised higher odd (new ESPN Power Ranking odds) for remaining games:

Pr(Win vs Cincy) = 75%
Pr(Win vs Tulsa) = 51%
Pr(Win vs USF) = 23%​

UCF's new probabilities (from summing the 8 possible combinations) are:

Pr(0 wins) = 9%
Pr(1 win) = 41% (three ways to achieve)
Pr(2 wins) = 41% (three ways to achieve)
Pr(3 wins) = 9%​

The two obviously most likely specific outcomes:

Pr(WLL) = 28%
Pr(WWL) = 29%​

 

[G-Knight]

Why is the probability so high for USF? They look like a better team then Cincy.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Why is the probability so high for USF? They look like a better team then Cincy.

We'll be the home team.***

 

[UCFProf]

Why is the probability so high for USF? They look like a better team then Cincy.

Sorry. That's a typo. It's 23% as you can tell by our much greater chance of winning 2 but not 3.