Early 2015-2016 Football Season Projections

[UCF 10 Georgia 6]

FIU (W) 35-17: Unless TY Hilton or Jonathan Cyprien decide to come back and play for FIU, we should be alright in this game.
Percent chance of winning: 80%

@Stanford (L) 34-13: I just don't see us winning this game. Stanford is always solid up front and our D line will get abused against their offensive line. You think NC State was bad, wait until we play Stanford out west.
Percent chance of winning: 25%

Furman (W) 45-10: Barring a major upset, this game shouldn't be an issue.
Percent chance of winning: 95%

@South Carolina (L) 38-24: Although a winnable game, I don't see us striking up the offense necessary to keep up with a normally strong South Carolina team.
Percent chance of winning: 35%

@Tulane (W) 31-17: Certainly not a cupcake opponent (especially on the road). That being said, this is a series we have dominated as of recently.
Percent chance of winning: 65%

UCONN (W) 48-21: George O'Leary will not let us lose this game again. He already has this circled on his calendar for sure. As corny as this sounds, if we play them at home last year we kill them. Fluke
Percent chance of winning: 75%

@Temple (W) 27-20: I expect this game to be fairly close. PJ Walker has regressed and I have more confidence in Justin Holman getting the job done against a mediocre Temple team.
Percent chance of winning: 60%

Houston (W) 31-24: This will be another close game. We will edge this one out due to our home field advantage.
Percent chance of winning: 55%

@Cincy (L) 34-27: I don't think we are strong enough to go undefeated in conference play. On the road against Cincy will be our toughest conference test, one I see us losing. However, it wouldn't surprise me if we pulled it out.
Percent chance of winning: 45%

@Tulsa (W) 35-14: This was a bad football team when we played them at home last year. I don't see them getting that much better next year.
Percent chance of winning: 75%

East Carolina (W) 38-28: Although we lose a lot of quality players, ECU arguably loses more in Shane Carden and Justin Hardy. Unless they have a good QB ready to take over this is our game to lose.
Percent chance of winning: 65%

USF (W) 27-17: Another team with poor QB play. I can't complain too much about a 17-0 shutout last year, but we honestly could've beaten them by 30-40 if it wasn't for countless mistakes on offense. This will be the game that pushes Willie Taggart's "bus" off the cliff.
Percent chance of winning: 60%

Overall: 9-3
Conference: 7-1

We shouldn't lose any conference games outside of Cincy on paper, but I would't be surprised if we slipped up against a team like ECU or Houston along the way.

Best Case: We beat Cincy and upset either South Carolina/Stanford (15% chance)

Worst Case: We lose the games we are supposed to (USC+Stanford) and slip up 3 times in conference against ECU, Houston, and Cincy



This post was edited on 2/21 8:18 PM by UCF 10 Georgia 6

This post was edited on 2/21 8:31 PM by UCF 10 Georgia 6

This post was edited on 2/21 8:38 PM by UCF 10 Georgia 6

This post was edited on 2/21 8:40 PM by UCF 10 Georgia 6

 

[Mikesi]

Looks about right. Hard to see USC blowing us out even on the road, so we are good there. Could be an upset. They had a horrible defense last year, but ECU didn't score a lot on them (I think 22) and our offense won't initially be as good as ECUs last year, and they still have SEC defensive players. Since USC lost their QB and RB I expect them to score less than 38.

So.., I think that we are looking at more of a 24-17 loss.


I'm not completely sure that Stanford will abuse our defensive line, but i do see their QB abusing our DBs if they don't mature quickly. Look for a lot of Stanford passing offense.

This post was edited on 2/21 8:42 PM by Mikesi

 

[hendu1976fl]

Originally posted by Mikesi:
Looks about right. Hard to see USC blowing us out even on the road, so we are good there. Could be an upset. They had a horrible defense last year, but ECU didn't score a lot on them (I think 22) and our offense won't initially be as good as ECUs last year, and they still have SEC defensive players. Since USC lost their QB and RB I expect them to score less than 38.

So.., I think that we are looking at more of a 24-17 loss.


I'm not completely sure that Stanford will abuse our defensive line, but i do see their QB abusing our DBs if they don't mature quickly. Look for a lot of Stanford passing offense.

This post was edited on 2/21 8:42 PM by Mikesi

Stanford was not a great passing team last year, and I believe Ty Montgomery (their only deep threat) graduated. I know our DB's will be young, but I would imagine they will be scheming for Stanford in preseason camp. I don't expect to beat Stanford on the road, but I wouldn't be shocked if that game ended up being a lot closer than people are predicting.

Cincy, Houston, ECU could go either way, although I like us against ECU and Houston. Cincy I agree with the OP that we will probably lose a tight one. South Carolina, I like our chances here better than Stanford. Stanford's D will be much more physical than South Carolina and maybe that will toughen us up a little bit before we play the Gamecocks. Also, we are a sandwich game for the Gamecocks. They play at Georgia the week before us and at Mizzou the week after us. If our WR's and DB's develop quickly, I honestly believe we will win that game. I think our O-line will be better than last year and after the Stanford game, they will be up for the challenge at South Carolina.

 

[Mikesi]

Stanford's Kevin Hogan is coming back looking to rebound in 2015. Stanford has had a very good passing attack year in and year out and even though they didn't put up exceptional stats, they were decent against PAC-10 competition. He ended the year on a strong note. Hackenberg had a very mediocre at best year for Penn State and he tore up our experienced Defensive backfield. The Stanford game is Game #2. They will be testing our DBs for sure.



This post was edited on 2/21 10:02 PM by Mikesi

 

[UCF 10 Georgia 6]

Originally posted by Mikesi:
Stanford's Kevin Hogan is coming back looking to rebound in 2015. Stanford has had a very good passing attack year in and year out and even though they didn't put up exceptional stats, they were decent against PAC-10 competition. He ended the year on a strong note. Hackenberg had a very mediocre at best year for Penn State and he tore up our experienced Defensive backfield. The Stanford game is Game #2. They will be testing our DBs for sure.



This post was edited on 2/21 10:02 PM by Mikesi

Kevin Hogan (an experienced Senior QB) vs our inexperienced and unproven secondary is a pretty scary mismatch. And this isn't even the main concern. The main thing to be worried about is shutting down the run, which will be quite the task in this game.

 

[Shark19]

I have us between 7-5 and 8-4 with losses to:

Stanford
So Carolina
Cincinatti

Temple (who returns more starters than anyone in the country) and/or Houston (running QB curse)

And then we get a 5th loss if we have a WTF game or both Temple and Houston

If we get outstanding QB play and find an O-Line.....maybe 9-3

 

[KAWknight]

Originally posted by UCF 10 Georgia 6:

@Tulane (W) 31-17: Certainly not a cupcake opponent (especially on the road). That being said, this is a series we have dominated as of recently.

Houston (W) 31-24: This will be another close game. We will edge this one out due to our home field advantage.

@Tulsa (W) 35-14: This was a bad football team when we played them at home last year. I don't see them getting that much better next year.

A couple of things I was thinking about these recently.:

This will be the first time we've ever played Houston three times in a row (and next year will be four, before going back to the old two-on, two-off rotation).

With the exception of 2013, we have identical records against Houston and Tulane: undefeated with the exception of road losses in 2006.

We've never won at Tulsa. 0-3 I think. Ugh. Time to quash that statistic.