ESPN FPI Projections by game

[PhDee]

9/1 - vs. SC State - 99.2% chance to win
9/9 - vs. Louisville - 63.2% chance to win
9/17 - at FAU - 77% chance to win
9/24 - vs. Georgia Tech - 80% chance to win
10/1 - vs. SMU - 73.3% chance to win
10/13 - vs. Temple - 95.8% chance to win
10/22 - at ECU - 71% chance to win
10/29 - vs. Cincinnati - 55.2% chance to win
11/5 - at Memphis - 52% chance to win
11/12 - at Tulane - 65% chance to win
11/19 - vs. Navy - 91.6% chance to win
11/26 - at USF- 76.4% chance to win

 

[Stormthecourt?]

The Louisville and SMU % are too high

 

[beelit47]

The Louisville and SMU % are too high

I agree that smu is high but louisville is about right. If you contain their qb, you win

 

[Shark19]

I agree that smu is high but louisville is about right. If you contain their qb, you win

But what do we have a history not doing ......exactly

 

[Gwoz]

Interesting in the rankings they put Cincinnati at a significantly higher chance to win the conference 39.9% vs. 26.8 for UCF. Yet, UCF is projected to win every game including against Cincinnati. Cincinnati plays @ SMU and @UCF in back to back weeks. I guess a lot of weight is put on Cincinnati not playing Memphis or Houston.

 

[PhDee]

Interesting in the rankings they put Cincinnati at a significantly higher chance to win the conference 39.9% vs. 26.8 for UCF. Yet, UCF is projected to win every game including against Cincinnati. Cincinnati plays @ SMU and @UCF in back to back weeks. I guess a lot of weight is put on Cincinnati not playing Memphis or Houston.

I saw that too. Kind of confused on that. Maybe they haven't updated the Overall FPI? Or maybe the individual games are old?? Not sure here

 

[mr. knightman]

Disagree with SMU and FAU.

Louisville is about right.

Why FAU is too high:
N'Kosi Perry at FAU, a Miami transfer, is more dangerous than Malik Cunningham/Louisville in my opinion, and he's bigger and can throw well. FAU is RIGHT after Louisville. I'd drop that % to about 60 for FAU when adding in their home field advantage and potential "rival factor". Jordon Young from FSU, Jemetre Hester from Miss Gulf Coast (we know that history if JUCO teams) and J'Quan Burton from Southern Illinois (FCS playoff participant) are VERY capable WR targets for Perry.

Why SMU is too high:
Mordecai is back, he's probably the best QB in the conference right now. Beau Corrales from UNC is now at SMU, Jordan Kerley at WR from Arizona State, much of the line returns. Defense mostly returns...the same one that shutdown UCF. Redding at TE is in his 4th year and there is a ton of experience. I think we end up playing SMU twice this year....remember, their Offense put up 55 on UCF last year. Much of it is back.

 

[Shark19]

Interesting in the rankings they put Cincinnati at a significantly higher chance to win the conference 39.9% vs. 26.8 for UCF. Yet, UCF is projected to win every game including against Cincinnati. Cincinnati plays @ SMU and @UCF in back to back weeks. I guess a lot of weight is put on Cincinnati not playing Memphis or Houston.

Well we aren’t playing Houston either, and I don’t see Memphis being a serious contender, they have lost a lot of good players after Norvell left.

This should be a ménage a trois of pain betweeen Houston, SMU, and UCF this year

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Disagree with SMU and FAU.

Louisville is about right.

Why FAU is too high:
N'Kosi Perry at FAU, a Miami transfer, is more dangerous than Malik Cunningham/Louisville in my opinion, and he's bigger and can throw well. FAU is RIGHT after Louisville. I'd drop that % to about 60 for FAU when adding in their home field advantage and potential "rival factor". Jordon Young from FSU, Jemetre Hester from Miss Gulf Coast (we know that history if JUCO teams) and J'Quan Burton from Southern Illinois (FCS playoff participant) are VERY capable WR targets for Perry.

Why SMU is too high:
Mordecai is back, he's probably the best QB in the conference right now. Beau Corrales from UNC is now at SMU, Jordan Kerley at WR from Arizona State, much of the line returns. Defense mostly returns...the same one that shutdown UCF. Redding at TE is in his 4th year and there is a ton of experience. I think we end up playing SMU twice this year....remember, their Offense put up 55 on UCF last year. Much of it is back.

Perry is bad. I actually wanted him when he was coming out of high school. I want to say he broke Culpeppers High School records.

 

[mr. knightman]

Perry is bad. I actually wanted him when he was coming out of high school. I want to say he broke Culpeppers High School records.

Perry, being mobile and taller, can do some damage if things weren't learned from last year.

 

[vroomba]

I wouldn't entirely write Memphis off either, playing them away is always a battle. I'm sure they'd love to gift us an L on the way out of the AAC too. The Louisville, SMU, Cincy trifecta are all a lot higher than I'd expect. Think at a minimum we lose one, maybe two of those if injuries pile up or the offense doesn't click. Defense could be an issue as well.

 

[Asphalt.Jungle]

Disagree with SMU and FAU.

Louisville is about right.

Why FAU is too high:
N'Kosi Perry at FAU, a Miami transfer, is more dangerous than Malik Cunningham/Louisville in my opinion, and he's bigger and can throw well. FAU is RIGHT after Louisville. I'd drop that % to about 60 for FAU when adding in their home field advantage and potential "rival factor". Jordon Young from FSU, Jemetre Hester from Miss Gulf Coast (we know that history if JUCO teams) and J'Quan Burton from Southern Illinois (FCS playoff participant) are VERY capable WR targets for Perry.

Why SMU is too high:
Mordecai is back, he's probably the best QB in the conference right now. Beau Corrales from UNC is now at SMU, Jordan Kerley at WR from Arizona State, much of the line returns. Defense mostly returns...the same one that shutdown UCF. Redding at TE is in his 4th year and there is a ton of experience. I think we end up playing SMU twice this year....remember, their Offense put up 55 on UCF last year. Much of it is back.

Perry played for FAU last season so I'd refer to him as their returning QB than a Miami transfer. HIs projections should be based on how he performed for FAU not his status as a former Hurricane during their mediocre days.

 

[mr. knightman]

Perry played for FAU last season so I'd refer to him as their returning QB than a Miami transfer. HIs projections should be based on how he performed for FAU not his status as a former Hurricane during their mediocre days.

I understand what you are saying. I wrote much of that sitting in a lobby on my phone so wasn't as clear as I intended to be. I stated it as a factoid, not an influencer. Mostly to allude to how they were recruited highly, and if in a good system, could do well. I am aware of his year at FAU. But he also spent 4 at UM. Played 3... I consider that entire history. Not just one year as it is a contributor to experience. He has a bit of it.

 

[Central Floridave]

UCF Knights​

2022 Preseason Prediction: 10-2
2022 AAC Prediction: 6-2
2021: 9-4, Prediction: 10-2
2020: 6-4, 2019: 10-3, 2018: 12-1

Sept 1 South Carolina State W
Sept 9 Louisville W
Sept 17 at Florida Atlantic W
Sept 24 Georgia Tech W
Oct 1 SMU W
Oct 8 OPEN DATE
Oct 13 Temple W
Oct 22 at East Carolina L
Oct 29 Cincinnati W
Nov 5 at Memphis L
Nov 12 at Tulane W
Nov 19 Navy W
Nov 26 at USF W

American Athletic Conference Preseason Predictions For Every Game: Preview 2022

American Athletic Conference predictions for every team and every game in the 2022 college football season

collegefootballnews.com

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I think ECU will be a tough one honestly.

 

[HammerB08]

I think ECU will be a tough one honestly.

They've played us tough recently and this is their last shot at Dowdy-Ficklen for revenge and to put a cap on one of our older rivalries. Most people will have the Louisville, GT, Cincy, and @Memphis games circled for good reason, but this is also definitely one I really want to win.

 

[Shark19]

I think ECU will be a tough one honestly.

Why not, their QB is entering his 10th season.

OTOH, I can't figure out why so many in the media are so high on Memphis....we are much more likely to lose to Lou or SMU even at home.

 

[mr. knightman]

COOL!!! Posting Spreadsheets works...

ECU's projected depth chart.

Pos	No.	Player 1	No	Player 2	No	Player 3	No	Player 4	No	Player 5
OFFENSE
WR-X	88	Hatfield, Jsi JR	8	Hudson, Taji SO
WR-Z	1	Johnson, Jaylen RS JR/TR	9	Savage, Tyler SO	81	Pegues, Andre RS JR
WR-H	28	Donald, Maceo RS JR	17	King, Kerry RS SO	11	Patterson, Jhari SO/TR
LT	52	Moorer, Parker RS SO/TR	77	Stribling, Walter SO
LG	73	Strother, Nishad RS SO	74	Ergle, Hampton RS SO	61	Everett, Keziah RS SO
OC	54	Jones, Avery RS JR/TR	56	Lang, Ethan FR	64	Copeland, Grant RS SO
RG	66	Foote, Isaiah SO	78	Pearce, Richard SO	76	Sacra, Jacob FR
RT	69	Henderson, Noah RS JR	71	Malovic, Bailey RS SR/TR
TE	4	Jones, Ryan GR/TR	80	Calhoun, Shane SO	85	Jarman, Aaron GR/TR	84	McKinnie, D'Angelo RS JR
QB	12	Ahlers, Holton SR	10	Garcia, Mason SO	6	Stubblefield, Ryan RS SO	15	Flinn, Alex RS SO
RB	25	Mitchell, Keaton SO	47	Harris, Rahjai SO	23	McKay, Joseph SO	22	Squire, Nemo FR
DEFENSE
DE	8	Hickman, Immanuel RS SO	40	Stephens, Chad RS SO	55	Robinson, Jasiyah SO/TR	92	Stinson, Kareem SO
NT	90	Morris, Elijah SO	52	McIver, Xavier SO	56	Johnson, D'Anta RS SO
DT	15	D'Abreu, Rick JR	96	Mims, Shaundre GR/TR	53	Ware, Suirad RS SO	99	Lampley, J.D. FR
RUSH	11	Lewis, Jeremy JR	24	Powers, Jack RS JR/TR	44	Doctor, Eric RS SO	94	Robinson, Elijah RS JR/TR
ILB	34	Berry, Myles SR	19	Simpson, Jacoby RS JR/TR	33	Barker, Zakye FR
ILB	10	Smith, Xavier SR	6	Jackson, Teylor SO
SAM	5	Wilson, Jireh RS JR	7	Stringer, Gerard SR	3	Mauney, Demetrius JR	22	Dankah, Samuel FR
CB	1	Fleming, Malik JR	42	Wilson, G'Mone RS SO/TR	26	Brown-Murray, Isaiah FR
FS	27	Dourseau, Shawn RS JR/TR	32	Wood, Julius JR/TR	45	King, Devon RS SO/TR
BS	9	Wilk, Teagan SO	21	Huff, Jordan RS SO/TR	25	McKinstry, Kingston JR/TR
CB	00	Powell, Juan RS SO	23	Hickman, Damel RS JR
SPECIAL TEAMS
PT	1	Larsen, Luke SO	38	Chapeau, David SO/TR
PK	41	Daffer, Owen RS SO	46	Smith, Carson SO	99	Marjan, Laith SO
KO	99	Marjan, Laith SO	41	Daffer, Owen RS SO	46	Smith, Carson SO
LS	49	Harper, Alex SO/TR
H	1	Larsen, Luke SO	38	Chapeau, David SO/TR
PR	1	Fleming, Malik JR
KR	88	Hatfield, Jsi JR	00	Powell, Juan RS SO

 

[beelit47]

I understand what you are saying. I wrote much of that sitting in a lobby on my phone so wasn't as clear as I intended to be. I stated it as a factoid, not an influencer. Mostly to allude to how they were recruited highly, and if in a good system, could do well. I am aware of his year at FAU. But he also spent 4 at UM. Played 3... I consider that entire history. Not just one year as it is a contributor to experience. He has a bit of it.

Ive always considered him like stephen Moffitt for us back in the day. Highly touted but seemingly lost at qb position. I could be wrong though

 

[Shark19]

Ive always considered him like stephen Moffitt for us back in the day. Highly touted but seemingly lost at qb position. I could be wrong though

Moffett lost? The guy that led us to our first bowl win (err game...thanks Prater)?

2005
59.5% passing
2,925 yrds
7.8 yds per attempt
22 TDs, 9 Int

If we get that from Plumlee we will be in a NY6 game

 

[U C to the F]

Moffett lost? The guy that led us to our first bowl win (err game...thanks Prater)?

2005
59.5% passing
2,925 yrds
7.8 yds per attempt
22 TDs, 9 Int

If we get that from Plumlee we will be in a NY6 game

Same thought, Moffit did well for us. I remember the Conference USA title game at the Citrus Bowl against Tulsa as a student. Got beat pretty bad unfortunately but he was a big reason we were in that game. That year was fun.

 

[Knight_Light]

Moffett lost? The guy that led us to our first bowl win (err game...thanks Prater)?

2005
59.5% passing
2,925 yrds
7.8 yds per attempt
22 TDs, 9 Int

If we get that from Plumlee we will be in a NY6 game

Moffett was solid in 2005 but really struggled in 2004 and definitely declined in 2006.

 

[Central Floridave]

UCF Knights Opponent Preview: Tulane Green Wave

UCF faces an experienced Tulane team with a dynamic running back.

www.si.com

 

[Shark19]

Moffett was solid in 2005 but really struggled in 2004 and definitely declined in 2006.

Meh, 2004 was very similar to what Keene did last year with a much better team around him. Keene had a better TD/Int ratio, Moffett had a better yards per attempt and completion %. And of course the team played horribly going 0-11.

QB Rating
Moffett 131.6
Keene 133.2

But no one will argue that Moffett definately had a rough 2006 along with the rest of the team.

The big disservice done to Moffett was a replacement coach burning his redshirt with 3 games left to play in a horrible year after Schneider was kicked off the team.

 

[Central Floridave]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[ucfjosh2000]

I like Malzahn, but if you take out the Alabama games, he pretty much averages exactly 3 losses a year. I'll say we drop the Louisville, @ECU, and @ Tulane games. I think at best we finish 10-2 and at worst 8-4.

 

[AuburnLegacy_1]

I like Malzahn, but if you take out the Alabama games, he pretty much averages exactly 3 losses a year. I'll say we drop the Louisville, @ECU, and @ Tulane games. I think at best we finish 10-2 and at worst 8-4.

I hate to break it to you kid, but that schedule ain't exactly the SEC West.

It would take a total collapse for UCF to finish with a worst record in 2021. The ceiling is undefeated. The floor may be 10-2. It's been YEARS since UCF lost to ECU or Tulane.

Kentucky, which Gus owned, regularly beats the hell out of Louisville.

The toughest game UCF plays is Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won 44 games the past four seasons. Since 2019, their only losses are to the 2021 national champion, the 2020 national champion, the 2020 national runner up, and back-to-back games against Memphis.

EDIT: I will take this one more step. Prior to last season, UCF (Auburn, 2017) and Western Kentucky (Arkansas State, 2012) are the only Group of Five programs to ever beat Gus. In 2021, Navy beat Gus on the road with a true freshman quarterback making his first collegiate start along with the best SMU team since they suffered the death penalty and CFP participant Cincinnati.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

I hate to break it to you kid, but that schedule ain't exactly the SEC West.

It would take a total collapse for UCF to finish with a worst record in 2021. The ceiling is undefeated. The floor may be 10-2. It's been YEARS since UCF lost to ECU or Tulane.

Kentucky, which Gus owned, regularly beats the hell out of Louisville.

The toughest game UCF plays is Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won 44 games the past four seasons. Since 2019, their only losses are to the 2021 national champion, the 2020 national champion, the 2020 national runner up, and back-to-back games against Memphis.

Cinci lost the most important player on field and 10 other guys. They won’t be toughest we face this year.

 

[AuburnLegacy_1]

Cinci lost the most important player on field and 10 other guys. They won’t be toughest we face this year.

Okay. You are saying a team that is 22-2 over the last two seasons with its only losses being to the last two national championship-winning programs and that is universally picked to win the AAC this year and that has a three-game winning streak over UCF is not the toughest team UCF will face this season.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Okay. You are saying a team that is 22-2 over the last two seasons with its only losses being to the last two national championship-winning programs and that is universally picked to win the AAC this year and that has a three-game winning streak over UCF is not the toughest team UCF will face this season.

Indeed. You make them sound like the 1994 Dallas Cowboys. UCF and Houston will be better than Cincy

 

[Gwoz]

We know Cincinnati recruits well, we know they have a good coach, and a program that has tons of confidence. The expectation is they take a step back because of player losses. They will have 7 games before UCF to figure out if they can build the team back up.

As for an undefeated season, in the end the QB has to be able to go out there and win a game on their own. Keene or Plumlee will have to be able to go down the field in 2 minutes in crunch time and they can't rely on handing the ball off.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Okay. You are saying a team that is 22-2 over the last two seasons with its only losses being to the last two national championship-winning programs and that is universally picked to win the AAC this year and that has a three-game winning streak over UCF is not the toughest team UCF will face this season.

Just Google what LSU did after losing Burrows and 10 other guys. You can’t be as good with that much turnover.

 

[Knight Strength]

Just Google what LSU did after losing Burrows and 10 other guys. You can’t be as good with that much turnover.

I tend to agree. Louisville brings back a QB with tons of production and Cincy lost theirs. I give the edge to Louisville. That said Cincy is a talented team and well coached so I expect them to be tough to beat.

 

[Gwoz]

Just Google what LSU did after losing Burrows and 10 other guys. You can’t be as good with that much turnover.

Have to add an asterisk to 2020 season for most teams. They had a calamity of roster disruptions either from Covid Opt outs or transfers that did not include the players leaving for NFL. LSU was down to 69 scholarship players by the end of the season.

Transfers, suspensions and opt-outs: A timeline of LSU's 18 scholarship player departures

Since LSU's national championship season ended, 18 scholarship football players have left the football team in some fashion. Seven players opted out of the season. Six transferred to other schools.

www.theadvocate.com

 

[AuburnLegacy_1]

Have to add an asterisk to 2020 season for most teams. They had a calamity of roster disruptions either from Covid Opt outs or transfers that did not include the players leaving for NFL. LSU was down to 69 scholarship players by the end of the season.

Transfers, suspensions and opt-outs: A timeline of LSU's 18 scholarship player departures

Since LSU's national championship season ended, 18 scholarship football players have left the football team in some fashion. Seven players opted out of the season. Six transferred to other schools.

www.theadvocate.com

Orgeron: 'Most' of his team has contracted virus

Although he said he didn't know the exact percentage, LSU coach Ed Orgeron said Tuesday that "most of our players" have caught the coronavirus.

www.espn.com

Agreed. LSU was not the best model to support his argument.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Most people knew LSU wasn’t going to be good after losing a bunch to NFL. Most people should know Cincy won’t be as good as last 2 seasons. 2 years ago they beat us by 3 when we weren’t great.

 

[Central Floridave]

Ranking the Best Defenses on UCF's 2022 Football Schedule, Part I

Will the Knights run over the worst four defenses they face in 2022?

www.si.com

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Cindy blew our doors off last year ending the game in the first quarter. It will be tough.

 

[Central Floridave]

*bastards* what do they know?!?

UCF football was picked to finish third in the 2022 American Athletic Conference football preseason media poll released Thursday. The Knights, who received 7 first-place votes, trail behind only ...

 

[Central Floridave]

AAC Football Media Poll: UC Narrowly Edged out as Top Team in AAC

The margins couldn't be any thinner for the Bearcats.

www.si.com