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ESPN FPI Projections by game

Odds to Win American Conference 2022 (from DraftKings)

Cincinnati +180

Houston +240

UCF +360

SMU +1000

Memphis +1200

East Carolina +2000

Tulsa +3000

Tulane +4500

South Florida +5500

Navy +8000

Temple +20000
 
Okay. You are saying a team that is 22-2 over the last two seasons with its only losses being to the last two national championship-winning programs and that is universally picked to win the AAC this year and that has a three-game winning streak over UCF is not the toughest team UCF will face this season.
Yes. Included in the 10 was their entire secondary. They will take a step back. That game is also at home
 
I agree that the toughest games will be @Memphis, @East Carolina and home against Cincinnati. I think that we win 2 of those and go 10-2. I don’t think anyone is thinking that we rollover East Carolina unless they turnout to be very average before they play us. Memphis has talent and Cincinnati is a good program with a good coach and a lot of new talent. They won’t be a playoff team, but should be good. What’s going to hurt them and Louisville is that we get them at home
 
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Cincinnati and Memphis are now slight favorites according to FPI. UCF is a slight favorite over Tulane.
 
I hate to break it to you kid, but that schedule ain't exactly the SEC West.

It would take a total collapse for UCF to finish with a worst record in 2021. The ceiling is undefeated. The floor may be 10-2. It's been YEARS since UCF lost to ECU or Tulane.

Kentucky, which Gus owned, regularly beats the hell out of Louisville.

The toughest game UCF plays is Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won 44 games the past four seasons. Since 2019, their only losses are to the 2021 national champion, the 2020 national champion, the 2020 national runner up, and back-to-back games against Memphis.

EDIT: I will take this one more step. Prior to last season, UCF (Auburn, 2017) and Western Kentucky (Arkansas State, 2012) are the only Group of Five programs to ever beat Gus. In 2021, Navy beat Gus on the road with a true freshman quarterback making his first collegiate start along with the best SMU team since they suffered the death penalty and CFP participant Cincinnati.
Should we revisit this?
I like Malzahn, but if you take out the Alabama games, he pretty much averages exactly 3 losses a year. I'll say we drop the Louisville, @ECU, and @ Tulane games. I think at best we finish 10-2 and at worst 8-4.
Time to revisit this. Sounds about right.
 
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