ESPN Post-spring FPI has UCF at #14

[Knight Strength]

Projecting wins at 11.2. Next closest is Memphis at 8.3.

UNC #29
Memphis #37
Houston #44
Cincy #46
GT #50

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020

 

[Renegade2007]

This was in another thread, but am I missing something cuz why is everyone so down on Cincy? projected 7-5? Yea they lost their lead RB, but they kept their coach, and their recruiting has been rolling. If you ask me, they are absolutely our biggest obstacle. Memphis is more likely to take the big dip if you ask me.

 

[shacket]

This was in another thread, but am I missing something cuz why is everyone so down on Cincy? projected 7-5? Yea they lost their lead RB, but they kept their coach, and their recruiting has been rolling. If you ask me, they are absolutely our biggest obstacle. Memphis is more likely to take the big dip if you ask me.

I think FPI takes margin of victory/point spreads into account heavily. Last year Cinci had a lot of close games that they pulled out against bad teams (USF, EZU, etc.) and Memphis really only sucked vs. Temple.

Having said that, I agree Cinci is the biggest hurdle except we have Cinci at home and we are going to the Liberty Bowl or whatever they call it.

 

[shacket]

Projecting wins at 11.2. Next closest is Memphis at 8.3.

UNC #29
Memphis #37
Houston #44
Cincy #46
GT #50

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020

A couple interesting % chances that FPI shows: it gives us over 75% chance of winning the AAC, gives us the 3rd best chance of winning out after Clemson & OSU (better than Bama), and gives us a better chance of making the playoff and winning a Natty than UF.

I know it's a limited statistical tool, but interesting nonetheless. Please don't flame and say we have 0 chance of making the playoff, I will save you the trouble, I know. We all know.

 

[ahabmw]

A couple interesting % chances that FPI shows: it gives us over 75% chance of winning the AAC, gives us the 3rd best chance of winning out after Clemson & OSU (better than Bama), and gives us a better chance of making the playoff and winning a Natty than UF.

I know it's a limited statistical tool, but interesting nonetheless. Please don't flame and say we have 0 chance of making the playoff, I will save you the trouble, I know. We all know.

Based on FPI, We’d be top 10 if we recruited more central Florida super 60 players... #fireheupel

 

[Knight Strength]

This was in another thread, but am I missing something cuz why is everyone so down on Cincy? projected 7-5? Yea they lost their lead RB, but they kept their coach, and their recruiting has been rolling. If you ask me, they are absolutely our biggest obstacle. Memphis is more likely to take the big dip if you ask me.

Good question. Defense returns a lot so it's got to be their offense. It was really mediocre last season. Ridder threw like 2:1 td:int. They lost at least 2 receivers (1wr and 1te)...maybe three because I think one transferred. If Ridder starts, Oline and RBs are going to have to carry their team.

I also just read that PFF rated Cincy as the 2nd luckiest team last season. They were losing at both ECU and USF (pathetic games to watch) and only scraped by because of last second field goals.

 

[Knight Strength]

I agree the big hurdle is Memphis just because it's an away game. They have a very competent offense and it will be at their place. Before anyone says Brady White sucks he had 4000 yards which is enough to score a ton of points whether you suck or not. It's an explosive offense that can easily keep drives going.

That said, I won't sleep on UNC, ECU, or Houston either. UNC for obvious reason, ECU because of Holton Ahlers, and Houston because of Holgerson and I think they have potential.

 

[Endeavor.]

I agree the big hurdle is Memphis just because it's an away game. They have a very competent offense and it will be at their place. Before anyone says Brady White sucks he had 4000 yards which is enough to score a ton of points whether you suck or not. It's an explosive offense that can easily keep drives going.

That said, I won't sleep on UNC, ECU, or Houston either. UNC for obvious reason, ECU because of Holton Ahlers, and Houston because of Holgerson and I think they have potential.

UNC apparently got themselves a stud QB to keep an eye on also

 

[vroomba]

I'd take the under on the 10.5 or whatever the original odds were out of vegas. I don't think our WR core will be as productive for DG and the offense will slow down a bit.