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Fed takes away punch bowl, global stock getting crushed

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Boston.Knight2

Four-Star Recruit
Jun 6, 2015
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China currency wars and deflation spreading like wildfire. Twenty three stock markets around the world are in crash mode right now.. TWENTY THREE. Here in the U.S., rotation happening out of the high flyers who are up 30,50,100, and even 1000 percent on basically little or no news, thanks to money printing and bubble blowing by the Fed. Now the bubble starts to pop - at least until QE4.

Either way, if you don't own some gold or silver, never been a better time to get in. Time to get defensive.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...re-stock-market-crashes-are-already-happening

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It's either just a poorly timed case of media stock reporting with the China and EU mess ... or it really is the latter finally coming home to roost.
 
One gets the sense that the smart money has left the building, or is in the process of doing so. One analyst I saw expects the Fed deep throat Lockhart to start jawboning dovish monetary statements to try and prop things up should the S&P break 2030 area. May get one more push up to get out.

On the upside, if global reflate doesn't work or isn't aggressive enough, this should give the Republicans just what they need in 2016 - a crappy economy.
 
Boston.Knight2 said:
On the upside, if global reflate doesn't work or isn't aggressive enough, this should give the Republicans just what they need in 2016 - a crappy economy.
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I was always afraid the crash wouldn't happen until 2017, and get blamed on that administration. This is must like with W., who is still blamed for the first recession, and the layoffs in 2001 March-April, even though it wasn't his fault.

Another thing to keep in mind too ... gas prices are predicted to head back to $3-4/gallon in 2017 as well, even if the economy doesn't change.

Average gas prices at $2/gallon have cut 60% of new shale-fracking investments. So not only with North American petroleum crude production suffer, but the natural gas glut (the byproduct of fracking) will be severely curved.

The result is that OPEC will be able to dictate prices again, instead of them being determined by free market. At the same time, OPEC will not be stupid enough again to let them go above $4/gallon. That's what caused the fracking investments en masse.

I.e., $4+/gallon to start, $2+/gallon to keep going. So OPEC will keep the price crude barrel just right so speculation will result in only a $3-4/gallon price.

So whomever gets in 2017 will not only be blamed for the increased prices at the pump ... but the natural gas glut ending will cause our CO2 levels to start increasing again (we're down 8% as a result of the glut).
 
^^ at this point both parties are equally guilty of money printing. 'W' was a liberal and Trump was right, a "disaster" of a President.

Who can remember back in the day when moral hazard was at least given lip service. They let Lehman go belly up, then after that, it became politically dangerous NOT to print money. The Fed won't even let stocks go down 5% anymore without some jawboning about more QE.

And this is why we're at where we are at today. If there is going to be more money printing, just stroke a $10K check off to every man, woman and child in America, including the illegals. Forget enriching the 1% via stock market injections. It doesn't work.
 
I never said W. wasn't a disaster. I just said his first recession wasn't his fault.

Of course, it wasn't Clinton's either. It was just the .COM bust. Of course, Clinton was the benefit of the .COM boom revenue winfall.
 
LOL

Of course you read "The Economic Collapse". Of course.

Of the nations listed in "crash mode", roughly 1 is really significant and that is China. And while China is freefalling now, it also ran up nearly 70% to begin the year. So it's still positive for the year. That's not a "crash" by any actual definition of the word. It's highly problematic volatility but it's not a crash.

For all of this "fear" the GLD is still barely popping.
 
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BS - I'm not buying the capEx cuts in fracking will last, or that guzzoline will rise in 2017 because of fracking production cuts. Frackers have some high producers right now, but when that spiggot starts to run dry - you can bet that any needed exploration will be provided for the sake of "national security", regardless of the underlying commodity price . If that doesn't work out, the deepwater drillers are taking delivery of 51 more floating rigs through 2017. There is over capacity in all aspects of oil exploration. This is a by-product of money printing and zombie bankrupt businesses being allowed to operate instead of going belly up.
 
Boston.Knight2 said:
BS - I'm not buying the capEx cuts in fracking will last, or that guzzoline will rise in 2017 because of fracking production cuts. Frackers have some high producers right now, but when that spiggot starts to run dry - you can bet that any needed exploration will be provided for the sake of "national security", regardless of the underlying commodity price . If that doesn't work out, the deepwater drillers are taking delivery of 51 more floating rigs through 2017. There is over capacity in all aspects of oil exploration. This is a by-product of money printing and zombie bankrupt businesses being allowed to operate instead of going belly up.
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The US is energy independent again, no argument. And other than some rare Earth metals, we have all we need in the Americas. The EU is another story, but I won't go there.

I was just saying whomever gets in 2017 will be blamed for higher gas prices and increased CO2 emissions.
 
I'm glad that stocks are falling back to levels where it makes sense for individual investors to buy again. Air needs to be let out of the bubble in all kinds of global markets so we can get back to making investments based on fundamentals, rather than based on timing and anticipated actions of other players
 
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Because I was switching financial companies for my IRA money, I converted everything to cash about a month ago and have been slow rolling the money back into stock based funds over the past couple weeks. The timing couldn't have been better for me.
The value of my IRA portfolio isn't being hammered much at all because I still have over half in cash. [banana][banana][banana][banana]
 
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Don't get sucked into the bear trap when the Fed starts jawboning dovish monetary statements and prospects for QE4. We'll se a monster snap back rally here shortly. They aren't doing QE4 anytime soon though. In the mean time, mean reversion and deflationary pressures rule the roost. I'm waiting for the S&P to get back to 1850 before scaling in.

Time to lighten up on any of those high flyers who have been up 20%, 30%, 50%, 100%, etc. year after year with little or no earnings to back it up. Again, if you have zero gold or silver in your portfolio, even the most critical of analysts recommend at least 5% as a hedge. More aggressive ones talk about 20%.
 
Boston yells buy gold for 5 years and then pats himself on the back when he's actually correct for 15% of that duration.
 
Boston and BS thread. I bet if I bothered to read it (NOPE!), it would be full of intellectual enlightenment.
 
Deflation is eating me alive at the grocery store. :weary: $5 lb hamburger 3.50 eggs, and more.
 
I bought Netflix yesterday. Their stock lost 16% this past week alone amidst this China fear selloff, yet their company does exactly 0 revenue in China right now.
 
Looks like the Chinese Central Bank has thrown in the towel in trying to create a stock market bubble to replace their existing bubbles. Hard landing seems imminent. The question is will the Fed realize the policy mistake of QE and let the U.S. market crater to mean reversion without intervening with QE4.

Was reading this weekend that would mean 1500 area on the S&P, that even factors in the large increases to the money supply over the last few years. High flyers like netflix, facebook, twitter, biotech etc would get crushed. Risk reward not very favorable to go in on high flyers right now.

Margin clerks are going to be busy today. Margin debt still at record levels. Wait for that to mean revert, then probably safe to scale in. I still hold to 1850 on the S&P, only 3% away now.
 
OH NOZ!

Honestly, whatever. My stop losses are all going to be triggered today which means I'll have a lot of cash ready for when this thing finally finds some sort of bottom and I can buy my favorites at a huge discount.

Oil is down to $39 a barrel. Should see sub-$2 gas soon.
 
PS- the Fed is NOT going to raise rates now. No way.

This has nothing to do with the Us economy, the Fed, or Europe. It's entirely due to the Chinese economy coming apart.
 
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The internals on the U.S. economy were never really steller to be honest. Record number of Americans are on public assistance. Many of the jobs created are part time and/or low paying. Under-employment is still a big problem.

If central banks are going to ... "let this one go", then margin sellers are going to get slammed, and all the "sure bets" they have been investing in will go along for the ride. Facepalm, netflix, amazon, biotech, etc. Does it not strike you as surreal that companies with no profits, high debt and poor cash flow are up 30%, 50%, 100%, 1200%? Every time they flash a ticker on CNBC, the stocks are up 30% minimum YOY with little or nothing to back it up.

I actually do like AAPL if it gets cheap enough. When the margin sellers are done unloading, I'll be there to scoop up some shares. Strong balance sheet, no debt, awesome cash flow, and a bunch of mindless zombies willing to pay anything regardless of economy.
 
Boston.Knight2 said:
The internals on the U.S. economy were never really steller to be honest. Record number of Americans are on public assistance. Many of the jobs created are part time and/or low paying. Under-employment is still a big problem.

If central banks are going to ... "let this one go", then margin sellers are going to get slammed, and all the "sure bets" they have been investing in will go along for the ride. Facepalm, netflix, amazon, biotech, etc. Does it not strike you as surreal that companies with no profits, high debt and poor cash flow are up 30%, 50%, 100%, 1200%? Every time they flash a ticker on CNBC, the stocks are up 30% minimum YOY with little or nothing to back it up.

I actually do like AAPL if it gets cheap enough. When the margin sellers are done unloading, I'll be there to scoop up some shares. Strong balance sheet, no debt, awesome cash flow, and a bunch of mindless zombies willing to pay anything regardless of economy.
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Apple?

Surely you mean BUY GOLD!!!
 
UCFKnight85 said:
OH NOZ!

Honestly, whatever. My stop losses are all going to be triggered today which means I'll have a lot of cash ready for when this thing finally finds some sort of bottom and I can buy my favorites at a huge discount.

Oil is down to $39 a barrel. Should see sub-$2 gas soon.
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Paid $1.95 yesterday just over the border in SC
 
Boston.Knight2 said:
If central banks are going to ... "let this one go", then margin sellers are going to get slammed, and all the "sure bets" they have been investing in will go along for the ride. Facepalm, netflix, amazon, biotech, etc. Does it not strike you as surreal that companies with no profits, high debt and poor cash flow are up 30%, 50%, 100%, 1200%? Every time they flash a ticker on CNBC, the stocks are up 30% minimum YOY with little or nothing to back it up.
Click to expand...

Exactly why when I have extra cash recently, it goes to finishing off my student loans instead of in to the stock market. Fundamentals haven't justified stock values for awhile, but after today maybe I can dip back in.
 
Whataknight said:
Paid $1.95 yesterday just over the border in SC
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I see- you travel to proud red states to take advantage of their lower taxed products ;)

My local pump was $2.10 this morning. I'd bet that's around $2 by tomorrow morning.

Amazing considering gas was like $3.50 or higher just a year ago.
 
UCFKnight85 said:
I see- you travel to proud red states to take advantage of their lower taxed products ;)

My local pump was $2.10 this morning. I'd bet that's around $2 by tomorrow morning.

Amazing considering gas was like $3.50 or higher just a year ago.
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Was on the way home from seeing family that lives over in Ft. Mill. I don't go out of my way to get gas over there that's .25 cents cheaper because it's 30 minutes for me to get to SC & I have a company fuel card/car :)
 
Yep, every stock or ETF I owned hit a stop loss and sold off. I'm in cash and bond funds only now.

In that case, I hope the market runs down another 8% before I buy back in.
 
UCFKNIGHTS88 said:
Looks like that might have been pre-mature
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Not really. Even with the recovery, the market is still down 150 points (Dow). That means the market has lost nearly 750 points in just 2 days going back to Friday, plus the declines all of last week. It was time to put cash on the table and wait for a new, better opportunity to get back in.

I'm guessing China will continue releasing shit news and drive things lower.
 
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