Fed takes away punch bowl, global stock getting crushed
- Thread starter Boston.Knight2
- Start date
anon_x731qvsnsyb8i
Diamond Knight
That's why you buy HUDs and foreclosures via auction and flip them. You can also "predict" the market. It takes a little of what they call...actual work...
I have no idea what this even means. Do you assume that buying a stock or an ETF automatically means you're dealing in emerging markets?
Plus the USD has strengthened over the past year, it hasn't dropped in value.
Foreclosure's are pretty much done. There is money to be made in real estate, but to say it's not subject to market corrections is flat out ignorant.
Dude, that's not a very prudent outlook. Right before the 2008 economic crisis everything was smooth sailing, until you were whistling past the graveyard six months later with frozen credit markets and money market funds "breaking the buck". The real fear is that the Fed loses control and is unable to do a 2008 style bailout (unless they plan to print 50T more dollars).
I've been reading some of Bill Gross commentary and he thinks the shadow banking system is "ripe" for a liquidity crisis. I can't believe how bearish and doom and gloom he is, but he has some good points. Shadow banking is $75T, in comparison all the QE's combined was around $4T.
What's really scary is how little mileage we got out of $4T. That really blows. It's clear now that the Fed made a major policy mistake in QE, and may not be so quick to reflate (through asset prices) this time.
What a freaking rollercoaster.
Dow was down 1,000, then down just 150, now it's back to being down 647.
That's 2,400 points of movement in just 1 day.
Apple was down 13%, then UP 2.5%, but is down again 3.3%.
Raising cash today is looking like the right call.
Dow was down 1,000, then down just 150, now it's back to being down 647.
That's 2,400 points of movement in just 1 day.
Apple was down 13%, then UP 2.5%, but is down again 3.3%.
Raising cash today is looking like the right call.
I'm not an economist, so I don't make predictions. I've been 30% in cash for a while now waiting for this to happen, with the majority of my portfolio in stocks, so I'm getting hammered too. It's all about timing, even though the pros say not to time the market. There is a clear correlation between QE and stock valuations. QE, stocks go up. No QE, stocks go down - like WAY down.
I seriously hope the Fed doesn't lose control like the Chinese central bank has. That would not be good. But there is a mountain of leveraged debt in those shadow banking systems that is ripe for collapse.
One thing various articles mentions is to have a secret stash of hard cash on hand (like $5K), in case the shadow banking system does freeze up for a time. Means, your 401K becomes inaccessible, mutual funds, etc. As long as fiat is around, hard cash will have value. I've also got a stash of gold and silver coins should the shit really hit the fan and the fiat monetary system collapses, but I think we're still a ways away from that happening.
anon_x731qvsnsyb8i
Diamond Knight
Agreed about the market corrections...didn't say otherwise.
But, I will say real-estate never declares chapter 11...
margin calls. Margin debt still at record levels. Path of least resistance right now is more selling. Wait for capitulation.
Plunge Protection Team to the rescue! I mean seriously, other than the PPT, who buys in the last half hour of trading with that kind of volume as the market is getting ready to break through intraday low. My guess is they have intervened twice today, once at the open, then again at the close.
WOW! Did you see that margin call liquidation that took the S&P from 1915 to 1893 right at the close!! Epic margin activity and forced liquidations.
I passed the Series 7 back in '06. I in no way consider myself a financial expert, but I do know what's occurring right now is completely different than what occurred in '08.
That's how I read that.
Boston is acting like all the weathermen when a hurricane is coming and nothing ever happens.
[QUOTE="MACHater02, post: 172224, member: 508"I do know what's occurring right now is completely different than what occurred in '08.[/QUOTE]
You're right. When the derivatives market crashes, it will make 2008 look like a day at the pony farm. The Fed won't be able to stop this one. We were right on the verge of testing a derivatives unwind in 2008, but never quite got there. Since then, it's just grown and grown. Images of the movie the blob come to mind, sucking in entire cities into a rolling mass of goo, devouring everything in it's path. Now valued at a staggering $550T per some sources I'm seeing. I hope and pray they can continue to kick the can for the rest of our lifetimes before the derivatives casino blows up.
Here is what Warren Buffet said about derivatives in 2008:
The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so
far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.
You're right. When the derivatives market crashes, it will make 2008 look like a day at the pony farm. The Fed won't be able to stop this one. We were right on the verge of testing a derivatives unwind in 2008, but never quite got there. Since then, it's just grown and grown. Images of the movie the blob come to mind, sucking in entire cities into a rolling mass of goo, devouring everything in it's path. Now valued at a staggering $550T per some sources I'm seeing. I hope and pray they can continue to kick the can for the rest of our lifetimes before the derivatives casino blows up.
Here is what Warren Buffet said about derivatives in 2008:
The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so
far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.
This is why you pay professionals to do this stuff for you. At no point was I down very much, didn't make money either but I'm no worse off today than I was last week at this time.
No sir. These "paid professionals" under perform the markets , then take 1% to 3% for themselves, plus a kickback from the under performing funds that compensate them for business.
True story - my Mom had a financial advisor from Tampa managing her money. Due to illness, we got involved in her finances, and the portfolio these guys had was pitiful. Full of dogs with high fees Review of previous years returns were bad. Super nice fellas, but we let them go and now manage the money ourselves.
If you are incapable of asset management yourself, buy some low fee mutual funds like Vanguard, et. al and let it sit.
Should you really be in the market at all if the derivatives markets is about to implode?*
Of course! Stock markets are perpetually rigged to the upside, as we saw with the PPT interventions yesterday, but there is always risk. How much you are willing to risk and how close you think the next financial crisis is your own decision. But you saw what happens when there is a stampede to the door. Bill Gross and Warren Buffett are two of the most respected financial guys of all time. When they speak, I listen.
I've been putting more and more into Money Markets, Bonds and Hard Currency as I get older.
Basically 10% in my 20s, 20% in my 30s, 30% in my 40s ... etc... so it's 50% by I'm in my 60s. I'm far from well diversified, but I'm balancing my risk as best as I can.
But I think this entire roller coaster is just getting started, and expect to lose at least 25% of my value before it's over in the next few years.
Basically 10% in my 20s, 20% in my 30s, 30% in my 40s ... etc... so it's 50% by I'm in my 60s. I'm far from well diversified, but I'm balancing my risk as best as I can.
But I think this entire roller coaster is just getting started, and expect to lose at least 25% of my value before it's over in the next few years.
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It could get really interesting with more margin liquidations by the hedge funds. Instead of dumping the high flyers and booking profits, they are liquidating the dogs (energy, miners, commodities) that have already dropped 50% and more. They best hope those high flyers hold up, or they'll have even more margin calls to deal with.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/stock-set-todays-collapse
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/stock-set-todays-collapse
Some great values in the energy and mining sectors ATM.
^^^ Yeah, that's what is interesting. Instead of covering their paper gold shorts (a market begging for a short squeeze), they selloff stocks that are already way down. The selloff isn't done yet though, so hold off for now. Look for quality names with strong balance sheets, good cash flow and little/no debt.
They better hope those high flyers continue to fly over the next six months and gold, energy, commodities continues to flounder. Look at the good side, they can only go to zero, and many almost there.
They better hope those high flyers continue to fly over the next six months and gold, energy, commodities continues to flounder. Look at the good side, they can only go to zero, and many almost there.
True. For $4T of printed money and huge increases in the money supply , the trickle down economics has been an utter disaster.
The more I research what is going on now, the more I'm convinced that we're headed for recession if not in the start of one already. Today felt like a dead cat bounce for sure. Who knows what that could turn into if derivatives start blowing up like Bill Gross and Warren Buffet have warned. If hedge funds are already doing forced liquidations, some other trades go bad, things could unravel fast.
You've been having too many conversations with your stuffed pelicans.
Good thing for us that your "research" and "recommendations" are always utterly horrible and consistently wrong. If anyone had listened to you and BOUGHT GOLD!, they'd be looking at one shitty portfolio right now. Gold has been on a consistent and dramatic downward spiral ever since September 2012. A case could be made this actually goes back to August 2011.
So f'n funny - market's gone virtually straight up since since the "Great Recession" but I'm sure along the way goldibears were all prayin for shit hitting the fan.
People giving a crap about 5 days (or even 5 months) when this is money they won't be touching for 20-30 years in some cases LOL.
Time in the market > timing in the market - carry on.
People giving a crap about 5 days (or even 5 months) when this is money they won't be touching for 20-30 years in some cases LOL.
Time in the market > timing in the market - carry on.
Have I ever said to put your entire portfolio in gold? Read what I've said in this entire thread. Dumbass. Your the one that got stopped out of your ETF's and stocks at rock bottom prices by the algos and is still sitting in cash. Unless you got caught up in the bear trap and panick bought on the upswing. So you're gonna get monkey hammered twice when the selling starts again.
OH NOZ! I LOCKED IN PROFITS AND NOW HAVE CASH ON HAND! OH NOZ!!
And I already bought back in (as I said) with most of that cash. I said on this very board that I bought Netflix on the day when the Dow dropped 1,000. Go ahead and see what Netflix has done since then and come back.
You're reading doomsday economic websites and I guarantee that most of your "research" is looking around on conspiracy websites to see which theory is craziest to believe.
It's like you're constantly auditioning on this board for a spot as a color analyst on CNBC's new Conspiracy Market show.
85 - you may be surprised , but there are people on message boards that are capable of having intelligent conversations without acting like FIW fourteen year olds. You obviously aren't one of them. I know UCF is a younger crowd, but how old you now? Doesn't it get old after a while and waste of time?
It's called pumping endless money into the system. It's not an "if" question, but more of "when" others stop believing in the dollar.
Every month people say Ron Paul was wrong. But as Ron understands, all we're doing is "kicking the can down the road." At some point, the road ends.
