The next two weeks will determine UCF's postseason fate, though it certainy won't be an easy road.
Among American Athletic Conference teams, the Knights can say they have the most formidable final stretch with three out of their last four games away from home and all against the league's top teams.
This week's slate begins on Wednesday with a trip to much-improved South Florida (18-9, 7-7 AAC) followed by a visit to first-place and No. 8 overall Houston (26-1, 13-1 AAC). The regular season wraps up with a quick sequence of games late next week with a Thursday, March 7 home game against second-place and No. 23 Cincinnati (23-4, 12-2 AAC) and then a quick turnaround having to play at Temple (20-7, 10-4) on the following Saturday.
If all goes well, say a 3-1 record or better, the Knights can likely solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament without any worry about what happens in the conference tournament. A 2-2 record might still get you in, but you'd want a strong showing in the conference tourney to feel a tad more comfortable. Anything less could put a potential at-large bid in jeopardy.
"I think for everybody in the country there is (a sense of urgency)," senior guard B.J. Taylor said. "It's not just us. It's everybody. It's the final four games. The games are important in November too, but you really see how things are shaking out and what the standings look like. You've got to make the most of it and leave it all out there on the floor."
As it stands today, UCF is in a great spot with a No. 34 overall NET ranking as they jumped six positions following their dominating win against SMU. They do lack one important metric though: Quadrant I wins.
The NET, which has replaced the RPI in terms of the NCAA's favored rankings system, values "Quadrant I" wins which are determined as home games vs. NET top 30 teams, neutral games vs. top 50 and road games vs. top the 75. Houston (4), Cincinnati (25) and Temple (51) most certainly will qualify while South Florida (72) is hovering in the low-70 range.
You can read more about the NET here.
South Florida enters Wednesday's game on a three-game conference losing streak having lost to Houston, Temple and UCF. In the first meeting on Feb. 13, the Knights raced out to a 13-0 lead and held the advantage the rest of the way, winning 78-65. In all, UCF has won seven consecutive games against the Bulls.
Prior to the game at USF's Yuengling Center, UCF is hosting a Charge On Tour stop at Tampa's World of Beer, located just off the campus on Fowler Avenue. Athletic Director Danny White, volleyball coach Todd Dagenais and others will be in attendance.
On Tuesday, just prior to boarding their charter bus to Tampa, head coach Johnny Dawkins and players Aubrey Dawkins and B.J. Taylor spoke to the media about the importance of these final games, beginning with South Florida on Wednesday.
"We need Knight Nation in there," Taylor said. "We want to make it at best a 50-50 split. We don't want all USF in there. We want all our fans in there and make it like a neutral site game or a UCF home game."
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