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Game 1: SC State, Sim predictions.

mr. knightman

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Aug 10, 2021
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Alright, I'm back after a hiatus part of last year.

8/28/2022 SC State Edition:


It's here. The season has started week 0...which they just need to call week 1...

You can smell the bermuda grass, grill cleaner and Cinnamon brooms creeping out at home depot.

The Halloween stores have just opened...

Ok, moving on...

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SC State Fun-Facts:

SC State is the only public, historically black land-grant institution in South Carolina.

During the height of the Civil Rights Movement, many students participated in marches and rallies aimed at ending segregation. The struggle came to a climax on the night on February 8, 1968, when three students were killed and 27 others were wounded by state policemen at the height of a protest that opposed the segregation of a nearby bowling alley. The tragedy, known as the Orangeburg massacre, is commemorated by a memorial plaza near the front of the campus.

In an attempt to resurrect the shootings of the "Orangeburg Massacre", filmmaker Dan Klores made a short film entitled, "Black Magic" that debuted on ESPN March 16, 2008. Also set to broadcast on PBS in fall 2008, is the documentary film "Orangeburg", by Bestor Cram and Judy Richardson, both activists from the 1960s. Both films set out to shine light upon an incident that lacked media coverage on the night it occurred and days following. Since it commenced at night, no one expected the shootings and therefore limited pictures or television images were available to the general public. The little attention that this tragedy received was not all accurate either. It was originally perceived that this confrontation was fueled by "black power advocates" and that gunfire was exchanged between the law enforcement officials and the protesters. Later it was discovered that the victims were in fact all unarmed. The recent media awareness and film interest regarding this event may influence the passing of a bill that was introduced in 2007 to reopen the investigation into Orangeburg.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina_State_University


UCF has beaten SC State before 38-0, twice...in 3 games since 2008.
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Players to watch for SC state:

Zion Keith - DB, 6'1", 190. was a 3 star prospect recruited by Wake Forest.

Alex James - RB, 5' 11", 200. Transfer from Coastal Carolina.

Corey Fields - QB, Senior quarterback, actually very shifty, and can throw pretty well.




***Onto the REAL Beef*** (Or marinaded jerk chicken and grilled chili-oil-marinaded asparagus)

Weather forecast at 7PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 8:52pm
Temp: 82F
Chance of rain: 60%
There COULD be chances of lightning delays...like last year. Because Florida.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY!!!
BRING YOUR DAMN PONCHO, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO MELT.


I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. Half with Rain, half without to simulate approximate rain chance. SC State was the HBCU championship winner. Also has a few FBS transfers. They will score at least once, early. We will start seeing more of the parity caused by the transfer portal this year.

SC State seems to score more during rain games in the sim. Let's hope for no rain. I also believe UCF should not defer the kickoff. I do expect UCF Offense to start somewhat slow, then will start scoring at-will. Including Corey Fields Jr, UCF will face at least 5 Dual-threat QBs in a row first 5 games.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 58
SC State 28

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -30 (Vegas: n/a 1:22PM 8/28)



"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 45
SC State 17

"heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -28 (Vegas be damned as they have NO line for this game)


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It seems the sim really likes oir offense versus their defense. I looked up their d-line and most are in the 245/250 range in terms of weight except one big 300lb dude. I would anyicipate us dragging out drives on the ground and keeping our defense fresh. Espn FPI has us at 99.2% chance to win.
 
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Interesting history. We need to talk more about some of these atrocities. I imagine these days the school curriculum is better in this regard but as someone in their late 30s I am semi regularly learning about these types of events. And it makes me feel ignorant and I'll informed. Recently went to the Tulsa race massacre museum and it was really good.
 
I predict 48-20. Defense stands tall on 2 of their drives to force fgs and they get another td late against our backups.

we score 7/14/17/10 by quarter with alot of ground and pound
 
I know what adjustments to make! Offense, not much out side of adding a couple % points for O'Keefe. Wow.

I knew, having watched video of Plumlee at Ole Miss, that he would run a bit. He did. I knew he would take hits (eeek) and he did.


Defense? More awareness. Speed is fine. I think I did a good job with the study overall. Cracking open the Louisville roster this weekend and watching their game... Look for next post Monday or Tuesday. Sample CPU sim maybe Wednesday.
 
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I know what adjustments to make! Offense, not much out side of adding a couple % points for O'Keefe. Wow.

I knew, having watched video of Plumlee at Ole Miss, that he would run a bit. He did. I knew he would take hits (eeek) and he did.


Defense? More awareness. Speed is fine. I think I did a good job with the study overall. Cracking open the Louisville roster this weekend and watching their game... Look for next post Monday or Tuesday. Sample CPU sim maybe Wednesday.
I would add awareness actoss the board and maybe tackling %
 
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Can you redo the usf game now? How in the world do we go undefeated and then lose to usf with our own home crowd? That sim loss to usf really discredited every one of your sims leading up to it, just to be honest.
 
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Can you redo the usf game now? How in the world do we go undefeated and then lose to usf with our own home crowd? That sim loss to usf really discredited every one of your sims leading up to it, just to be honest.
If you scroll up...on that sim game thread, You will see where I mention a few times that it was a preseason run of the season to test. 😊.

I am running each game week-to-week now.

It is worth to note that a 1-win usf almost beat UCF last year...same UCF that beat Florida. It's college football, anything can happen.

A 1-win Uconn derailed O'Leary's 2014 team.

👍
 
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