GAME 4, UCF @ Kansas State sims, predictions, etc (Posting from Cape Town, SA)

[mr. knightman]

9/21/2023 GAME 4 Kansas State Edition (Posted from Cape Town):



----
Kansas State Fun-Facts:

Athletic nickname: Wildcats (didn't have to change this field from last week...)

Founded in 1863

Manhattan, Kansas is indeed known as "The Little Apple"

The logo is called "The Powercat"

The mascot is "Willie the Wildcat"...and it bothers me for some reason, can't stop looking at it.


----
Players to watch for Kansas State:

Kansas State is a little banged up after their unexpected last-second field-goal loss to Missouri. I don't like hearing about injuries, even with opponents...changes the expectations of the game, etc. Things are a little hard to predict with this game due to the number of questionables.

Will Howard #18, QB - SR, Questionable for this game, but if he plays he is a obviously quite capable in the air. We may see Jake Rubley, #2 instead. RS SO.

Treshaun Ward #9, RB - Also Questionable for this game. We may see more of #31 DJ Giddens, RS SO and was projected starter before Ward's transfer into the program.



***Onto the REAL Beef*** (Or ...nothing, because you don't know where to go in a new city.)

Weather forecast at
8:00PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 7:24pm
Temp: 86F
Poncho-factor: 44% ...similar to 2010, the "Independance Day Starship Storm" game.


TV: Fox Sports 1


I ran only 6 scores since I'm working in South Africa this week...plus, there's a few unknowns with this game because of the injuries.

Sim Average Score Results:

UCF 42
Kansas State 30

Sim Spread: UCF -12


"Heart" Prediction:


UCF 35
Kansas State 27

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA (Trigger warning): UCF -8 (Kansas State -6.5 6:11 AM 9/21)

Julian is back again this year and he turns 12 in November! The soothsayer returns with his line of dungeon-level doom...

UCF 34
Kansas State 31

Julian's line of doom: UCF -3 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)



What's your prediction?

 

[Dream Killer]

First things first, thank you for doing these sims. I know they have to be a labor of love at this point. Now on to the sim discussion.

I'm surprised the sim average had us winning by 12? I completely think we can win, but I think that this is such an impossible game to try to predict what might happen. I'm curious how many of the 6 sims had Howard and Ward in and how many had neither playing. Even if Howard starts he is only one hit or even scramble away from aggravating his injury. Then a talented true freshman comes in and as UCF fans are well aware that is a mixed bag. If you told me either team won by 30 after the game I could see how it was possible. Back ups in at key positions just have such varied results.

 

[mr. knightman]

First things first, thank you for doing these sims. I know they have to be a labor of love at this point. Now on to the sim discussion.

I'm surprised the sim average had us winning by 12? I completely think we can win, but I think that this is such an impossible game to try to predict what might happen. I'm curious how many of the 6 sims had Howard and Ward in and how many had neither playing. Even if Howard starts he is only one hit or even scramble away from aggravating his injury. Then a talented true freshman comes in and as UCF fans are well aware that is a mixed bag. If you told me either team won by 30 after the game I could see how it was possible. Back ups in at key positions just have such varied results.

Fair assessment.

It could rain and both teams could barely score 21.

I mentioned the "questionables", like the injuries...and I admit it's "difficult" to predict games like this one.

What I think keeps it closer for KSU is home-field.

 

[AuburnLegacy_1]

EDIT: Failed to mention...

Love Julian's pick here.

UCF 34
Kansas State 31

The key for K-State is the health of RT Christian Duffie. Is he legitimately back or still limited? If he is in playing shape, it doubles or triples the potential productivity of K-State's rushing offense.

The key for UCF is Timmy McClain and whether Gus trusts him to run the offense in its entirety. If Gus gives Q the keys, K-State is going to struggle to keep the Knights from scoring in bunches.

Lastly, I am slightly more optimistic about UCF's rushing attack than earlier in the week. Texas was the last and only team to rush for 200+ yards (269 to be exact) @K-State, but several teams (TCU, 218; uat, 175; West Virginia, 153; TCU, 215; Oklahoma, 220; and Tulane, 160) were able to run for 150 yard or more last year.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Thanks for doing these especially while traveling

if the 12 sim is right it means Timmy goes off

 

[LoboCane]

EDIT: Failed to mention...

Love Julian's pick here.

UCF 34
Kansas State 31

The key for K-State is the health of RT Christian Duffie. Is he legitimately back or still limited? If he is in playing shape, it doubles or triples the potential productivity of K-State's rushing offense.

The key for UCF is Timmy McClain and whether Gus trusts him to run the offense in its entirety. If Gus gives Q the keys, K-State is going to struggle to keep the Knights from scoring in bunches.

Lastly, I am slightly more optimistic about UCF's rushing attack than earlier in the week. Texas was the last and only team to rush for 200+ yards (269 to be exact) @K-State, but several teams (TCU, 218; uat, 175; West Virginia, 153; TCU, 215; Oklahoma, 220; and Tulane, 160) were able to run for 150 yard or more last year.

Lmao @ “if Gus gives Q the keys UCF will be scoring in bunches.” Based on what? BASED ON WHAT?

 

[Happy Hands]

Lmao @ “if Gus gives Q the keys UCF will be scoring in bunches.” Based on what? BASED ON WHAT?

Based on football. Every score is in bunches except for an extra point. 3 is a bunch, as is 2 and 6. I guess 2 is a pair and 3 is several, but 6 is definitely a bunch. Every touchdown will be a bunch.

Also, Kansas state doesn’t seem to have a very good passing defense as they currently sit around 106th for passing yards allowed per game. So if Q gets the keys, then Gus feels comfortable with him passing against a struggling secondary which hasn’t faced a strong offense yet. That should lead to scoring in bunches.

 

[OtterKnight]

I guess 2 is a pair and 3 is several, but 6 is definitely a bunch.

I'm glad you brought this up, because I've always felt like 2 is a date, 3 is company, and 4 is a crowd.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

I hope we can score a lot. Even if we give up points, I like shootouts better than 13-7 games.