Pretty interesting write up. Scroll down to see his ACC collapse prediction. Which would leave a Power 3. https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/re...ing-exit-notice-to-mw-mean-for-the-conference
Nevada sports writer predicts end of ACC
- Thread starter Willie Knightime
- Start date
Or here ya go...
"The Pac-12 adds Texas State, the Mountain West stands pat and the ACC eventually falls apart as three power conferences are created (SEC, Big 10, Big 12). The Big 12 potentially outlasting the Pac-12 and ACC is wild given that conference was in dire straits after losing Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. If the Pac-12 had taken Texas and Oklahoma when they wanted to join in 2011, things would be so different. Former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott really screwed the Pac-12."
"The Pac-12 adds Texas State, the Mountain West stands pat and the ACC eventually falls apart as three power conferences are created (SEC, Big 10, Big 12). The Big 12 potentially outlasting the Pac-12 and ACC is wild given that conference was in dire straits after losing Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. If the Pac-12 had taken Texas and Oklahoma when they wanted to join in 2011, things would be so different. Former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott really screwed the Pac-12."
Yeah…none of the top programs from the ACC is joining the crap Big 12. Get over all that already. There’s no money or value in doing that. NONE.
What is likely to happen is that the top brands from BOTH the ACC and the Big 12 will leave those conferences and from a third super conference without all the “dead weight”. That’s what’s likely to happen.
The Big 12 doesn't have top brands. ACC has Clemson and Florida State. If they go to one of the Big 2 all of a sudden the Big 12 is much better than what's left of the ACC.
I hope it doesn't happen, because at that point it becomes even more likely that the Big 10 and SEC just completely break off. Even if they don't it's the Big 2, and then the Big 12 is the best of the rest.
Agreed. They could take the top schools from those 2. The ones that have won the conference.
So
Clemson
FSU
NC State
Duke
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Baylor
Kansas State
Colorado
Oklahoma State
TCU
Arizona State
And it is already 16 teams like the others.
That leaves Cal, Louisville, Miami, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, Utah, BYU, and West Virginia.
Not a bad 16 leftover.
Remember when we used to want to join the ACC? Whew! Feels like we dodged a bullet lol.
FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Virginia would be the only ACC teams I'd think the SEC and Big 10 would find attractive. All 4 would make sense and fit.
Since Tv ratings are mentioned, the only game I watched of the Miami Canes last year was the Georgia Tech game. Yup...They weren't "Back".
“make sense and fit”…do you know how many AAU schools are there on the ACC? Two: Miami and North Carolina. Every single Big 10 school is an AAU school but for Nebraska who recently lost the accreditation.
Also, in the new ACC tiered distribution model do you know what four schools will get the most? Lol.
AGAIN: the more probable outcome (next 2-3 years) is going to be that the top 5-6 programs from the ACC will leave the conference and the same for the Big 12. Those schools will then form a super conference that will compete with the Big 10 and SEC. That’s the reality.
The super conference will happen because the top programs in the ACC and Big 12 just CANT compete with the Big 10 and SEC in revenue generation. That’s all.
The dead weight from the remaining schools will link up and become something between a power conference and a G5 conference.
The second, less appealing option remaining to the ACC and Big 12 schools is tiered revenue distribution. Either the first or the second option is likely to happen.
A third option is SEC or Big 10 expansion. The Big 10 would like a presence in Florida and to capture the TV market. The only schools in the state which have AAU membership are Miami and USF. That’s all.
The super conference will happen because the top programs in the ACC and Big 12 just CANT compete with the Big 10 and SEC in revenue generation. That’s all.
The dead weight from the remaining schools will link up and become something between a power conference and a G5 conference.
The second, less appealing option remaining to the ACC and Big 12 schools is tiered revenue distribution. Either the first or the second option is likely to happen.
A third option is SEC or Big 10 expansion. The Big 10 would like a presence in Florida and to capture the TV market. The only schools in the state which have AAU membership are Miami and USF. That’s all.
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I agree except for with the first sentence. While they don't have a championship winning football program, Kansas is definitely a top brand. Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, BYU, Arizona State, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Colorado, and UCF are all traditionally rich football programs or national championship winning football programs. Baylor, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Houston have all had their football moments as well and they're top basketball programs with numerous national championships.
If you buy into the B1G-SEC create their own league theory, there will be room in the Merry-go-round for six more invites (four for the SEC, 2 for the B1G). In addition to those four, you could add Notre Dame and one more. Without a doubt, the B1G's top two choices would be ND and UNC.
I'm a fan of KU but the Rock Chalkers found out early on in the conference realignment shuffle, that basketball means diddily-squat when it comes to coveting CFB programs.
Basketball is mostly irrelevant in the conversation. Football is what brings the ratings, the crowds and the money.
Mohajir is tanking UCF by not investing in the product. Two losing seasons and a third is just about guaranteed. Who are people tunning in to see play this year for UCF?
At least last year UCF had Harvey…there’s literally not a single elite player on the roster. Not one…specially in offense. UCF two biggest TV games last year were UF and Colorado…they don’t play either in 2025.
At least last year UCF had Harvey…there’s literally not a single elite player on the roster. Not one…specially in offense. UCF two biggest TV games last year were UF and Colorado…they don’t play either in 2025.
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I'm on record wishing UCF was investing more on NIL portal acquisitions. But at the risk of having Willie call me a closet troll again, where's the money supposed to come from?
Earlier this summer, there was a thread that listed the revenue each Big XII program made each year that would go towards the $20.5 million max for player revenue sharing. For the richest programs, that amount is approximately 20% (or less) of their annual revenue. And that amount is expected to go up every year.
I read that and thought that half the Bix XII wouldn't be able to afford paying their players the maximum allowed--especially UCF and Houston who were at the bottom. The article said it was more likely that athletic departments would pay out 20% of their annual revenue, whatever that amounted to. I opined at the time that the unequal player sharing numbers were going to mean a bigger separation between the have's and the have not's.
But a couple weeks ago, I heard Mohajir say that 'of course' UCF was going to distribute the max amount 'like everybody else.' That'll be a HUGE percentage of the department's annual revenue. Iowa State's AD came out this summer and said that the Cyclones are not going to be able to 'keep up with the joneses' and they are in better financial shape than the knights.
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Well sure. Last year you were a shoe in for the playoff. Oops. That and sports betting would influence viewership. In 2022 when you went 5-7 you were ranked 59th. 2 spots ahead of UCF in the American.
Dumb ass prehistoric Cane and Husker trolls can't stay out of UCF business. F'n losers 🤣
Predictable. Instead of acting like a second grader, why not offer your thoughts on 'UCF Business.' Last i checked, this is supposed to be a discussion board.
So why didn't you reply when you got called out about a week ago for being a weirdo troll who gets thrown out of Nebraska tailgates? Shut your troll trap.
It is absolutely ridiculous that these trolls are telling us how we are suppose to feel and view UCF athletics.
I haven't watched a nebraska game in 20 years. Daunte's game or something. Maybe it has been 30. Auburn, haven't watched since 2017 Peach bowl. I was at that game. Canes. last year getting wooped by Georgia Tech. I'm not impressed. You can have the eye balls, I'll take the wins.
These trolls have not come up with any outlook or statements that are not already obvious. Like Duh...UCF isn't the richest school...Like duh, we don't have a 100 year history...like duh...we are considered the underdogs...like duh, we just moved up to the Big12...like duh...like duh de duh duh duh....
Thanks Willie for calling these trolls out. I really don't know what their purpose is. But, I guess this is the distraction we going to get until football season. I just ask them to come up with something interesting rather than bash UCF all the time, 24/7. I've been on this board at 3am before and hobolamo is on it bashing UCF. Geez. I suffer from insomnia. Makes me wonder what hobolamo suffers from. Get help dude.
I haven't watched a nebraska game in 20 years. Daunte's game or something. Maybe it has been 30. Auburn, haven't watched since 2017 Peach bowl. I was at that game. Canes. last year getting wooped by Georgia Tech. I'm not impressed. You can have the eye balls, I'll take the wins.
These trolls have not come up with any outlook or statements that are not already obvious. Like Duh...UCF isn't the richest school...Like duh, we don't have a 100 year history...like duh...we are considered the underdogs...like duh, we just moved up to the Big12...like duh...like duh de duh duh duh....
Thanks Willie for calling these trolls out. I really don't know what their purpose is. But, I guess this is the distraction we going to get until football season. I just ask them to come up with something interesting rather than bash UCF all the time, 24/7. I've been on this board at 3am before and hobolamo is on it bashing UCF. Geez. I suffer from insomnia. Makes me wonder what hobolamo suffers from. Get help dude.
I disagree with everything you state here. If ACC gets past 2030 losing 4 or less, I think you may be right. But if SEC and Big both go to 20, ACC has serious problems. First off ESPN is not likely to pay 39 or 40 million to those left behind and leftovers are still stuck with the TV deal they have. With 6 gone you likely have Clemson, FSU, NC, and VA in SEC, and ND plus one of Duke, NC st. UM or Ga tech in Big. The ACC won't fall apart but they won't get big deal either.
No way the top breaks away from both conferences. One or the other goes fishing. B12 will be up for a new deal and is the most likely to win.
Assuming the B12 goes to 20 to match the P2, The ACC with 12 will still have 8 left to build from.
B12 adds UL, and the 3 not taken above.
ACC can add Tulane, OR state, WA state, Memphis, and likely 4 more to get to 16. Have Pacific and Atlantic divisions.
The quicker B1G and SEC expand at the expense of other conferences, the faster all conferences get squeezed. Best case scenario will be B12 being offered a couple spots in the playoffs vs. 80% of the spots guaranteed to SEC/B1G. Even that would probably only last for a few years.
As long as every school in that nation including every school in the B12 would leave there conference immediately if they get the call from B1G and SEC, no conference can feel confident that they have a secure place in the future. The hierarchy is already established.
As long as every school in that nation including every school in the B12 would leave there conference immediately if they get the call from B1G and SEC, no conference can feel confident that they have a secure place in the future. The hierarchy is already established.
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Culturally UCF is a better fit w ACC schools than Big 12. But gotta take who offers. We have more in common with the new PAC schools than schools like Texas Tech and Kansas State.
I meant no harm. My apologies. I'm a Knight football fan but sometimes I forget I'm not as emotionally invested as many of you. I realize that it's one thing to ask tough questions or criticize the program if your screen name is BigKnightFanAl and something entirely different if you're posting as DaShuckster.
I've made a grand total of two critical comments on this forum in years of forum posts. One was back when I called out Knight fans for making a mass exodus from the Bounce House at halftime of the Baylor game with a big lead and another with this summer's 'UCF business.' Both times I was blasted as some kind of secret troll. I get it so I vow to go from 98% positive to 100% from now on. I come here in peace. 'nuff said.
In addition, the fan base would be far more interested in playing an ACC schedule.
The league as currently constructed and being the ACC Coastal would be perfect. Conference away games in Atlanta and Miami.
Not if the top 4-6 go elsewhere....we would be back to playing SMU, Memphis, Tulane, UConn....and Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest, Duke, NC St
This would be a garbage schedule IMO
Football wise the ACC is filled with boring teams. Duke, Wake, Virginia, Ga Tech etc are boring. Id rather play B12.
You literally have no say. You believe that legacy Big 12 programs are happy to lose Texas and Oklahoma while adding: UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and the rest?
Clemson won the ACC and made the playoffs last year. Who had more eyes? Miami had more TV views than every single ACC program last year and every single Big 12 program but Colorado.
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You see a casual fan at best…you and Willie both, lurking in the free board.
If you gut the conference obviously not, I'm talking about current state.
What football program in the Lil 12 tops Miami, FSU or Clemson? None. Georgia Tech, SMU and Duke are rising football programs and NC has plenty of resources. The Lil 12 made a huge mistake taking UCF and UC over SMU.
Right now the top five programs in the Big 12 are Colorado, BYU, Utah, ASU and Kansas…all of those are layers beneath the top ACC programs.
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They have to rope in this NIL & Transfer crap. "They" have to do something with caps, contracts, and rules.
Clemson, a perennial playoff contender, is in a different football tier. FSU ain't sh*t. A Gusless FSU could go undefeated and get left out of the CFPs.
But FSU ... with Gus and Tommy? Hell, can't no Big 12 touch the Noles.
Da "u" still ain't a shade better than sh*t. Twenty years of meaningless bowl data confirms that.
