Now with chance for remaining games, Sagarin, Stats, AAC power index, Win-Out%

[UCFProf]

Probability of winning each remaining game:
Sat, Oct 14 East Carolina 98.4%
Sat, Oct 21 #25 Navy 71.5%
Sat, Oct 28 Austin Peay 99.3%
Sat, Nov 4 SMU 71.3%
Sat, Nov 11 Connecticut 98.4%
Sat, Nov 18 Temple 86.0%
Fri, Nov 24 #18 South Florida 76.1%

Espn has us with a 26.4% chance to win out (up a bit from 20%), projected 10.6 win - 1.1 losses, and 61.4% chance to win conference.

AAC power index ranking (not the same as power ranking): UCF #21, Houston 39, USF 45, Memphis 48, Navy 58, SMU 60, Tulane 67, Tulsa 82, Temple 85, Cincy 99, UConn 120, ECU 121
UCF is 6th in nation in Team Efficiency

Individual stats:
Milton had 6th most passing yds (374) in games this week and Smith was 6th in receiving yds (165)
Milton: #5 QBR (83.5), #2 QB rating (an outrageous 203.7), #2 in yd/attempt (11.5), #1 sacks allowed (1), #9 in completion pct. (68.3%)
Smith: #2 (tied) total TD catches (7) despite on 4 games, #6 in yds/catch (22.5) for 15+ receptions,

Team stats:
#8 in yds/gm (533), #18 passing yds/gm (311), #25 rushing yds/gm (222), #1 pts/gm (47.5), #18 3rd down made pct (47.8), #12 4th down made pct (75), #4 penalties, #12 yd/attempt rushing (5.8), #9 yds/reception (15.7), #2 (tied) interceptions (10), #4 (tied) in forced turnovers (15).

Sagarin computer rankings for AAC:
AAC EAST
21 UCF
38 South Florida
83 Temple
100 Cincinnati
137 East Carolina
141 Connecticut
AAC WEST
37 Houston
50 Memphis
53 Navy
72 SMU
82 Tulane
98 Tulsa

 

[Poolside Knight]

 

[KnightVision82]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/weekly

 

[UCFProf]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/weekly

The bad news is we've slipped to 27th in yds/gm defense and collapse to 89th in passing yds/gm defense. At least we are still in the top 10 in rushing defense (#9 at 91 yds/gm) and 11th in scoring D (15.8 pts/gm).

 

[HoseEmDown]

The bad news is we've slipped to 27th in yds/gm defense and collapse to 89th in passing yds/gm defense. At least we are still in the top 10 in rushing defense (#9 at 91 yds/gm) and 11th in scoring D (15.8 pts/gm).

Not too concerned with the passing defense slip. We've been up big in all the games so teams have abandoned the run and been forced to pass most of the game. We have been giving up some easy completions though, which could be an issue in a close game but we haven't been gashed for the big plays which is nice. Griffin needs to start getting more pressure on the QB, he rushes every play but hasn't been getting nearly the same results as last year.

 

[UCFProf]

Not too concerned with the passing defense slip. We've been up big in all the games so teams have abandoned the run and been forced to pass most of the game. We have been giving up some easy completions though, which could be an issue in a close game but we haven't been gashed for the big plays which is nice. Griffin needs to start getting more pressure on the QB, he rushes every play but hasn't been getting nearly the same results as last year.

Last year, UCF was high-ranked early against the run, but that blew up as opponents learned to ram it up the gut. We had no possible answer. The depth and talent wasn't there and our starters quickly got worn down and injured.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

The bad news is we've slipped to 27th in yds/gm defense and collapse to 89th in passing yds/gm defense. At least we are still in the top 10 in rushing defense (#9 at 91 yds/gm) and 11th in scoring D (15.8 pts/gm).

We can make up for that by playing Navy. We might take a dip in rushing defense though.