I still have my reservations about this team. It's been miraculous that they've been able to secure three Big 12 wins so far, having to outscore opponents averaging over 86 pts/g in conference play. This is not your father's Johnny Dawkins Knights team(s). UCF is 14th in FG% in the conference, yet they've found a way to score 80 or more points in three of their first five B12 games.
Despite very poor shooting, the Knights have been the beneficiaries of many whistles called against their opponents. They are among the leaders in conference in free throw attempts and makes.
My main concern with UCF has been their incredibly leaky defense (especially in the paint). Gave up 83 to TT, 99 to Kansas, 88 to Arizona, 80 to Arizona State. UCF's defense ranks 16th in the B12 in scoring, 14th in opponent FG%.
If I'm the Knights, my top focus against Houston this afternoon is keeping the Cougars off the offensive glass. The Knights are ranked last in the conference when it comes to opponents grabbing offensive rebounds (12.4/g). Houston grabs just under 13 OREB's per contest, led by J'Wan Roberts (5th year SR) and Joseph Tugler (SO.) - who have combined to snag 87 offensive rebounds this season. UCF must limit Houston's second chance opportunities if they are going to have any chance pulling an upset Saturday.
My heart says UCF can keep this close. But if I were a betting man, I would probably take Houston to cover this spread. I don't see the game being particularly close. Of course, I would love to be wrong.