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The Dissolving Big 12?

KnightVision82

KnightVision82

Diamond Knight
Jan 26, 2004
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings/_/group/4

All this conference meeting talk about being a P5 with staying power probably has some of these schools thinking about surviving in case of major falling out.

Looking at Big 12 teams, how could this thing unravel as teams jump ship?

UT - not motivated to do anything (winds up independent like BYU)!
Oklahoma / Oklahoma St - good candidates to follow Nebraska and jump to Big 10.
TCU / Baylor / Texas Tech - thinking about what Texas AM did when it jumped to SEC.
West Virginia - jump to ACC.
Kansas / Kansas St. / Iowa St. - left at home with UT.

After our experience with Big East fallout, is this really the direction we want to go next?
https://www.thedailyscholar.com/articles/398
 
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" in case" means maybe, what if? SO YES! It is what we want since " in case" may not happen. Plus, should it collapse, maybe we'll be in a better situation in the Big 12 rubble to be picked up by someone else, or at least desired more that being in a maybe crap AAC. If the Big 12 can collapse, then there is always the possibility the AAC fails to build on its successes the last few years. Not one team here has had sustainable success. Houston's been bad, same for Memphis, UCF, Cincy's crap year this year when they were supposed to be serious contenders. We'll have a better chance to show we can play v. the big boys if we are actually in a conference of big boys much better than if we play 1 or 2 P5 teams a year. Not to mention, if maybe the Big 12 collapses 2 years after we join, that's a $40-50 million gain we'd never see in the AAC. The remaining P4 will pick up the remnants of the Big 12 before they'd stoop to pick up an AAC team.
 
The SEC would not take any team from the B12 except OU or Texas. Texas would not go because they would have to give up the LHN. ACC would not want West Virginia. They passed on that once and they already have that market pretty much sown up with the nearby teams. I think there is always a B12 as long as Texas is in it and Texas does not care because they are getting paid already.
 
Just an interesting question- how many teams have said no to conference invites and has that hurt their chances at further invites? I know of- Boise, Air Force, BYU, Army and was it San Diego St? Only BYU (probably because of its history) was briefly considered by the Big 12. Does saying no tarnish your brand?
 
Haha Texas tech can sit around and dream about what Texas A&M got out of the SEC. They aren't going anywhere. And why would the big 10 take both OK and OK ST? Doesn't make sense to cover the state twice
 
fyi, there are reports Cinci got contacted by the Big12. Or, Oklahoma. I didn't read the article. ...waiting for the ink to dry first... LOL
 
The only reason WVU & TCU aren't in the AAC is the B12 needed warm bodies. Baylor is an historical loser with no fans. TxTech makes ECU's market look metropolitan. ISU and KSU are like Tech but without Texas recruiting. None of those programs are getting into a P4.

Texas and Oklahoma can go anywhere they want and might bring 1-2 lucky programs with them. The rest of the B12 will have to grab a few replacements from the MWC/AAC/BYU and become a G6 conference. They'll be able to poach us based on their existing TV/bowl contracts even if everyone knows they'll be devalued.
 
MechaKnight said:
The only reason WVU & TCU aren't in the AAC is the B12 needed warm bodies. Baylor is an historical loser with no fans. TxTech makes ECU's market look metropolitan. ISU and KSU are like Tech but without Texas recruiting. None of those programs are getting into a P4.

Texas and Oklahoma can go anywhere they want and might bring 1-2 lucky programs with them. The rest of the B12 will have to grab a few replacements from the MWC/AAC/BYU and become a G6 conference. They'll be able to poach us based on their existing TV/bowl contracts even if everyone knows they'll be devalued.
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If they lose OK and Texas it would become a non power conference. TV deal would lose much of its value, but maybe still $6-8 million per team.
 
I would rather be in a conference with a potentially good Houston, Cincinnati, Navy, USF then the Big 12 also rans who are perennial losers and awful road trip destinations. If there becomes a P4 and teams are shedded from the P5 conferences they are going to shed teams like Wake Forest and Iowa State, not Florida State and Oklahoma.
 
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Oklahoma is looking to go somewhere, the public push to expand (which they know will be voted down) is just ammunition they're creating to lower their buyout when they leave. When they go to the PAC, ACC, or B10 they say the B12 no longer had their best interest in mind and therefore the GOR is null and void. I don't know what will happen with Texas then, they still have the LHN, maybe they'll go independant.
 
SCKnight said:
Not everyone has the luxury of endless available land on campus like UCF does. They had to renovate a very old stadium.
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Still wasn't a good use of space. You can see that there are no seats in the corners and the end zone seats could go higher.
 
If we join an imploding conference, the same thing will happen to us when we joined the Big East/American. Maybe we will be lucky to add an extra half million per year. I mean four time national basketball champion UConn is in our conference and ESPN didnt blink an eye when they offered 1/10 of the original deal.
Lets keep winning games in football. Lets establish some interest so when we play on the road maybe the fans will eventually show up to see us. For example, when Blake threw the catch to JJ Worton versus Temple most of the fans were dressed as seats.
 
firm_bizzle said:
Still wasn't a good use of space. You can see that there are no seats in the corners and the end zone seats could go higher.
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Renovation of existing facilities is generally more expensive than building new. My guess is that they maximized what they were able to do given the architecture. I am also guessing that they puffing when they say they will expand if they get a B12 invite.
 
I guess the prevailing opinion here is for us to stay mediocre and pretend that anyone outside of the AAC actually cares about Houston, Cincinnati, Navy, USF. Laughable. Navy at least has the honor attached to being a service academy, but who outside of G5 actually cares about any of the others? Only those who are assigned to report on the AAC and are trying to sell it. Who knows, maybe after a century someone will actually care.
 
therightknight said:
If we join an imploding conference, the same thing will happen to us when we joined the Big East/American. Maybe we will be lucky to add an extra half million per year. I mean four time national basketball champion UConn is in our conference and ESPN didnt blink an eye when they offered 1/10 of the original deal.
Lets keep winning games in football. Lets establish some interest so when we play on the road maybe the fans will eventually show up to see us. For example, when Blake threw the catch to JJ Worton versus Temple most of the fans were dressed as seats.
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Yep. ESPN has basically said that any conference that we are in will not be top tier. We can't move up, those P5 schools move down.
 
firm_bizzle said:
Yep. ESPN has basically said that any conference that we are in will not be top tier. We can't move up, those P5 schools move down.
Click to expand...
therightknight said:
Lets establish some interest so when we play on the road maybe the fans will eventually show up to see us. For example, when Blake threw the catch to JJ Worton versus Temple most of the fans were dressed as seats.
Click to expand...

Case in point after a 12-1 season and Fiesta Bowl win, when we played at Missouri, their fans didnt see UCF as a draw and its fanbase didnt care about us.
 
From what I've heard the Boise State football home game experience is very exciting and their a G5 like us. I'd like to see us win 1 or 2 championships with new regime and have dire hard UCF fans filling our stadium first before we move into a more challenging conference. If our games become an event on display when we play, then people will pay more attention to us. Also, we need to expand seating at that time in stadium.
 
SCKnight said:
Not everyone has the luxury of endless available land on campus like UCF does. They had to renovate a very old stadium.
Click to expand...

Nippert was an old and decrepit stadium because the Univ basically just ignored their 90 plus year old stadium for decades.

Heck, more renovations have been made to BHNS in just 9 years than had been made at Nippert over the previous 50 years prior to their completed renovation last year.
 
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therightknight said:
If we join an imploding conference, the same thing will happen to us when we joined the Big East/American. Maybe we will be lucky to add an extra half million per year. I mean four time national basketball champion UConn is in our conference and ESPN didnt blink an eye when they offered 1/10 of the original deal.
Lets keep winning games in football. Lets establish some interest so when we play on the road maybe the fans will eventually show up to see us. For example, when Blake threw the catch to JJ Worton versus Temple most of the fans were dressed as seats.
Click to expand...
Agree 1000%......keep winning games and conference titles. The 0-12 could not have come at a worse time.
 
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80'sKnight said:
I guess the prevailing opinion here is for us to stay mediocre and pretend that anyone outside of the AAC actually cares about Houston, Cincinnati, Navy, USF. Laughable. Navy at least has the honor attached to being a service academy, but who outside of G5 actually cares about any of the others? Only those who are assigned to report on the AAC and are trying to sell it. Who knows, maybe after a century someone will actually care.
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I didn't realize it was our choice to join the P5. I had no idea there was a standing offer. Then by all means, let's go to the P5. Do we pick the SEC or Big10?
 
With all of this talk around possible expansion, I think it is imperative that UCF get rid of Donnie Jones immediately. UCF seems to be very appealing looking at the parameters the conference is looking for, size of school, TV market, recruiting backyard, on campus facilities, etc. The real only drawback is the basketball program. It has never been great and under Donnie Jones it never Will be. Fire him now and bring in a big name coach with history of building a winning program and I guarantee other conferences will take a better look. especially if Coach Frost puts the football program where we all think he will!
 
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Think Big 12 knows that they need to do something fast (by summer) to stay in the game.

Donnie's gone after this season. Our basketball program is a joke...worst game time coaching. He started out exciting and faded fast many seasons ago. Bye bye.

Did UCF need to dissolve IMG contract to be in a better position for possible Big 12 network involvement?
 
There is never a good time for 0-12, but this was a particularly bad time. However, it may not be representative of the program. If UCF rebounds this year it shows that it was just a one year abberation.

Compare that with other G5 candidates for the B12.

USF who has had six very bad years before they finally rebounded to a mediocre 8-5 record this year.

Memphis who was a perennial loser until 2014.

UCONN who was a very bad team until this past year.

Only Cincinnati and Houston have had sustained success over multiple years and UCF's overall record of multiple conference championships and BCS bowl win puts us just a little above them.
 
If the big 12 were to dissolve then that is a wrap for UCF. The AAC would still not be considered a power conference with 2 remnants of the big 12.

I would assume the schools would be realigned like this...

PAC 14 - Texas, Texas tech
Sec - Oklahoma, Oklahoma state
Acc - West Virginia (Notre dame/cincy or uconn as the 16th)
B1G - Kansas, Kansas state

TCU - back to the mountain west

Iowa St and Baylor to the ACC
 
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For Texas to join another conference, the payout would have to be better than what they're guaranteed to get for the longhorn network. Otherwise they'll just go independent with a scheduling agreement like ND does with their NBC contact contract.
 
SublimeKnight said:
For Texas to join another conference, the payout would have to be better than what they're guaranteed to get for the longhorn network. Otherwise they'll just go independent with a scheduling agreement like ND does with their NBC contact contract.
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I don't know if Texas has a following quite like ND besides the LHN is a total failure. Texas was ready to jump to the PAC 10 4 years ago.
 
MasterKnight said:
If the big 12 were to dissolve then that is a wrap for UCF. The AAC would still not be considered a power conference with 2 remnants of the big 12.

I would assume the schools would be realigned like this...

PAC 14 - Texas, Texas tech
Sec - Oklahoma, Oklahoma state
Acc - West Virginia (Notre dame/cincy or uconn as the 16th)
B1G - Kansas, Kansas state

TCU - back to the mountain west

Iowa St and Baylor to the ACC
Click to expand...

PAC12 - Texas is most likely not going to the PAC12 (14) with the LHN in play but eventually this makes the most sense. They will most likely go independent until ESPN is off the hook for that disaster.

SEC - The SEC doesn't double dip in states now, I doubt they would start for Okie State. I definitely see OU heading to the SEC.

ACC - No way Iowa state goes, they offer nothing. They have a better chance to the B10. Agreed on WVU. And UConn perhaps.

Big 10 - Kansas, yes. K-state - No. (They are not AAU members)
 
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