The world is about to drown in abundance

[UCFEE]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-glut-challenges-policy-makers-1429867807

Piece in the Wall Street Journal today highlights the global glut of commodities. I think we're getting really close to the bottom dropping out and a lot of people need to adjust their way of thinking about the economy and society. A lot of you are skeptical about the problems wealth inequality creates, and I think you fundamentally misunderstand this issue to be about creating "equality for all, even the bums", but that isn't the problem or the solution. Structural changes in the economy due to technology advances are going to guarantee that wealth creation will continue to favor the few and will continue to push down the tail of the wealth distribution curve (and as such wealth creation will not stimulate demand for commodities as it used to). This is a big deal and it is going to happen even if the growing number of people on the tail of the wealth distribution curve do what has traditionally been required of them to earn a minimum living standard...

So we're converging on a point where violent social unrest in the developed world becomes a real threat if wealth inequality is neglected. This doesn't mean "give people free stuff to make them equal and happy", but it does mean that we have to prioritize social projects that will allow a majority of people to eat, have shelter and access the technology they need to grow their skillset to and contribute in the new economy... We can't let this huge glut of resources go underutilized just because putting them to use would occur at a loss.

The world is abundant with technology and resources, but we're moving so fast as a society that fewer people are able to capture a sufficient share of those resources because they don't understand what is required to do so in the new economy... and it's not for lack of trying to contribute and earn a living, it's just because so many are woefully unprepared to leverage technology and contribute to progress. If we neglect the transition from the old economy to the new, it's not going to be pretty. The way to ensure a transition is to invest in social projects that will allow people to gain the skills they need to leverage technology and become more entrepreneurial without a vast majority of people having to fight each other for food, shelter and tech access....

Long rant, but change is'a'comin' sooner than we think and mindsets across the political spectrum and from the top of the social ladder to the bottom need to change fast.

tl;dr: Grow your attention span because knowledge and ideas are the new labor.

 

[Bob the Citronaut]

prioritize social projects that will allow a majority of people to eat, have shelter and access the technology they need to grow their skillset to and contribute in the new economy

This is what most people have been saying forever. The problem is most people on the government tit want nothing to do with that. They want the free stuff with no investment. You want welfare, you're going to have get a menial government job with training. You want food stamps, take a drug test like every other person with a job.

 

[UCFEE]

This is what most people have been saying forever. The problem is most people on the government tit want nothing to do with that. They want the free stuff with no investment. You want welfare, you're going to have get a menial government job with training. You want food stamps, take a drug test like every other person with a job.

And those type of people deserve a poor quality of life. The problem is a lot of people that want to work hard and contribute are going to find themselves struggling just as much as the guy that sits on his ass doing nothing all day... because so many don't have the knowledge and skillsset they need.

That's why unrest is a threat, and soon as a majority of hard working people find themselves in a similar situation as someone that hasn't done a thing, shits going to hit the fan.

 

[knight_poster_15]

There's always some cloud on the horizon. I'd just chill and wait to see. My guess is things are going to get better.

 

[UCFEE]

There's always some cloud on the horizon. I'd just chill and wait to see. My guess is things are going to get better.

I don't see how... I'm not aware of a capitalistic mechanism to correct for mass subsitituons of labor for cheaper automation (or for overvalued capital) and I'm not sure where the demand for this glut is going to come from. If commodity stores are gowing, you can bet that stores of produced goods are growing as well... If demand is already so low that goods are not moving, it's going to get worse as those who have been working to produce those goods are no longer making money.

I think we're in a very new situation and there are so many people making noise around us (politicians, media talking heads, message board trolls) that not many people are hearing the train coming down the tunnel.

 

[1ofTheseKnights]

THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!!!!!!

In 5-10 years or hopefully less you'll look back at these idiot takes & laugh. In the meantime, keep on keepin on. It's Friday get drunk before societal Armageddon due to the evils of capitalism!!!

 

[UCFEE]

THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!!!!!!

In 5-10 years or hopefully less you'll look back at these idiot takes & laugh. In the meantime, keep on keepin on. It's Friday get drunk before societal Armageddon due to the evils of capitalism!!!

Evils of capitalism? If you can't contribute to the conversation then pull that stupid looking flat billed cap over your skull, go do something douchey and stfu.

I don't have the social skills to be an asshole as well as normal people do but I'll keep trying.

 

[1ofTheseKnights]

Ah EEmo-nomics pity party interrupted

Am contributing by pointing the whole idea is garbage, but whatever. We're goin off the cliff!! Societal upheaval!!!

 

[UCFEE]

Ah EEmo-nomics pity party interrupted

Am contributing by pointing the whole idea is garbage, but whatever. We're goin off the cliff!! Societal upheaval!!!

To quote the most obnoxious liberal I can think of, I'm not wrong.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Buy land. Land will never declare bankruptcy or collude with external mega-corps, and will always be yours and hold value...short of a totalitarian communist or fascist takeover of course.

Learn how to grow food. Something humans have known how to do for eons...except lately.

Learn how to defend yourself, both with...and without a weapon. Common sense.

When you see leftists start saying the same sentiment as some libertarians, it's time to take heed.

 

[UCFEE]

Buy land. Land will never declare bankruptcy or collude with external mega-corps, and will always be yours and hold value...short of a totalitarian communist or fascist takeover of course.

Learn how to grow food. Something humans have known how to do for eons...except lately.

Learn how to defend yourself, both with...and without a weapon. Common sense.

When you see leftists start saying the same sentiment as some libertarians, it's time to take heed.

Agree to some extent (again). It would be smart to shift your portfolio to more tangible assets. Land would be better in the case of a severe melt down, but if the meltdown is less severe having a paid off automobile to ride share or a home with low mortgage payments to rent a room or two might bring a better return than other types of investments (and yes I know the S&P has yielded 18% over the past 3 years, yadda yadda yadda, but the next 3 years are going to be far different).

I don't think we'll deteriorate to a point where it's every man fend for himself, but there's going to be high unemployment until we adjust to the transition and people acquire the skills to survive independently.

If the transition is managed, socity should be able to adjust without a total meltdown.

 

[Bob the Citronaut]

You are being so Boston from 5 years ago. Nothing happened then, nothing is going to happen now. How do you expect people who can't hold jobs and/or can't support themselves to form any kind of uprising. They'll all give up at the first hurdle.

BUY GOLD!!!

 

[1ofTheseKnights]

The central planners will manage the transition Bob

 

[CommuterBob]

Society finds a way. We always have. Doom and gloom like this is for losers.

 

[UCFEE]

Society finds a way. We always have. Doom and gloom like this is for losers.

That's the thing, it shouldn't be doom and gloom because we're awash with resources.... society finding a way is going to require some people's views on wealth inequality and redistribution to change.

I'm sure people will cme around eventually, how painful that is depends on how quickly people accept this.

 

[goodknightfl]

The world economy is slow as hell and has been for 7 years. There is little growth, which is needed to use up resources. Until we have a growth friendly environment it is what it is...

 

[Bob the Citronaut]

Accept what? Socialism and the death of the free market? Yeah not gonna happen.

 

[fabknight]

Accept what? Socialism and the death of the free market? Yeah not gonna happen.

LOL, Bob. It's already happening.

 

[UCFEE]

Accept what? Socialism and the death of the free market? Yeah not gonna happen.

No, not socialism. Accept the idea that the traditional ideas on how capitalism should work no longer work because the structure of the economy has fundamentally changed. The idea of unfettered capialism is underpinned in part by the the idea that wealth creation will be distributed uniformly enough such that as wealth is created, demand is also created. NOT perfectly uniform as socialism would inply, but uniformly enough.

That's not the case any more, and so there has to be a shift in mindset. This isn't advocating for socialism or central planners, but it's accepting the reality that some of our fundamental beliefs no longer apply. The data to support this is staring us in the face. We're not going to keep producing goods when there's already a giant glut of both commodities and finished goods sitting on the shelf not being bought, so producers will have to shed labor which just exasperates the demand problem further... so how do yu go about stoking demand?

Something has to give.

damn tiny phone keyboards and autocorrect, not even going to bother fixing all the errors.

 

[sk8knight]

Buy land. Land will never declare bankruptcy or collude with external mega-corps, and will always be yours and hold value...short of a totalitarian communist or fascist takeover of course.

Learn how to grow food. Something humans have known how to do for eons...except lately.

Learn how to defend yourself, both with...and without a weapon. Common sense.

When you see leftists start saying the same sentiment as some libertarians, it's time to take heed.

Land ownership is at the pleasure of the government. Even here, you've got politicians pushing towards seizing all privately held land.

 

[Bob the Citronaut]

I still don't understand where you're going with this. You think all the companies in the country are putting out more product than they can sell? That's not true at all. Most companies dont produce a product without an order. Any company that keeps producing without selling is going to fail. That is nothing new.

 

[mach3ucf]

abundance. My main problem is humans are worthless!
Name something we cannot make an app, robot, or machine to take the place of all human labor.
every job out there you can figure out a way to make all those in that profession fired.
robot maintenance maybe the only job for humans.

 

[Good Knight Sweetheart]

abundance. My main problem is humans are worthless!
Name something we cannot make an app, robot, or machine to take the place of all human labor.
every job out there you can figure out a way to make all those in that profession fired.
robot maintenance maybe the only job for humans.

-Delivering babies. Can't be done by a robot. Too many possible complications.
-Customer service. Granted, some of the people I have worked with at those jobs are not smart, but a machine cannot answer everyone's possible customer service scenarios.
-Graphic artists. Robots aren't that creative....except for the robots fab saw lurking on this board, of course.

 

[1ofTheseKnights]

I still don't understand where you're going with this. You think all the companies in the country are putting out more product than they can sell? That's not true at all. Most companies dont produce a product without an order. Any company that keeps producing without selling is going to fail. That is nothing new.

In a nutshell everything is a mother ****ing crisis unless you change, racist.

 

[goodknightfl]

-Delivering babies. Can't be done by a robot. Too many possible complications.
-Customer service. Granted, some of the people I have worked with at those jobs are not smart, but a machine cannot answer everyone's possible customer service scenarios.
-Graphic artists. Robots aren't that creative....except for the robots fab saw lurking on this board, of course.

If a stupid bird can do it, surely we can build a robot to do it.

 

[UCFEE]

I still don't understand where you're going with this. You think all the companies in the country are putting out more product than they can sell? That's not true at all. Most companies dont produce a product without an order. Any company that keeps producing without selling is going to fail. That is nothing new.

Well basically I've been having a slow Friday so wanted to debate a piece of news I see as pretty damn important and telling. What we're seeing here is a direct result of wealth inequality dampening demand. If more people understand this, then smart policy can be supported to address the structural issues possibly without there being a huge dip in living standards for a lot of people.

What you say about holding too much inventory is exactly it, a lot of companies are beginning to pile up inventory as the article mentions. As you said that's bad news. Based on the commodity glut, inventory levels at large firms may be even higher than are being reported in financials. I'm aware of a global company that recently starting running hundreds of thousands of its product through days long and unnecessary quality screens. Doing this kind of thing keeps working capital off the books as inventory and instead it gets reported as WIP. These are the types of operational tweaks that those who understand financials can make to paint a different story than what's going on, and I suspect a lot of big producers may be playing these kind of games (this commodity data supports this theory).

 

[Game_Day_Sports]

1) Things a robot can't do - Make babies. I may not be able to deliver a 14 inch soup can for a woman that can thrust at 2100 beats per second for 7 hours straight, but a robot can't make sperm. And even though message board posters across the land have tried and probably replicated the best possible machine to extract sperm from a dude, they can't make those machines create eggs to be fertilized and a womb to grow a kid so the ladies are still required there too.

2) Welcome to adulthood. Nothing is as warm and safe and as awesome as when you were a kid. It is a scary world just as it was when Jesus led his disciples out of the soup and transitioned from fish to humans only to be eaten by dinosaurs and dragons. (my history may be off a little) As you start to realize that people suck and those in charge are out to screw you, it wipes the shine off of this idyllic world you thought was out there.

When I was in my 20's, it was aids and coke and some crazy from the middle east had a nuke and was going to use it. When my parents were in their 20's, it was nuclear missile drills because Russia was going to invade from Cuba and Vietnam and drugs and lack of oil for gas for cars. When George Washington was around it was the British and Indians and lack of anything resembling health care.

Your parents kind of lied to you as a kid. I say kind of because there weren't monsters in your closet or under your bed, they were out there in the world making decisions that affected your life and made their lives better while simultaneously making your life a little suckier. There wasn't a bad man who was going to rob you of all of your money, there were bad men who were going to take a penny a day away from you until you noticed but you wouldn't notice because they were taking a penny a day away from everybody else too so your financial homeostasis didn't change, until somebody noticed.

Congratulations for making it this long in your life before the real boogeymen were exposed to you and the cynicism of the world began to kick in. Put down your keyboard and go do something that robots can't do or roll her over and PIIHB.

 

[UCFEE]

Soooooo you do see wealth inequality as a legit problem, but PingIIHB can make it all better. Good

 

[Sir Galahad]

Amen GDS, there is always a boogie man. It is like the global warming stuff of today. When I was a kid it was the pending ice age that was coming, in high school it Russia's aggression around the world. There is always something to be scared of, the creme will rise to the top and others will find their role in the world be it upper, middle or lower class.

As for wealth inequality, that is just the latest catch phrase of the left, like war on women or climate change. There is always a BS crisis to promote and the foolish fall for it every time.

 

[UCFEE]

Amen GDS, there is always a boogie man. It is like the global warming stuff of today. When I was a kid it was the pending ice age that was coming, in high school it Russia's aggression around the world. There is always something to be scared of, the creme will rise to the top and others will find their role in the world be it upper, middle or lower class.

As for wealth inequality, that is just the latest catch phrase of the left, like war on women or climate change. There is always a BS crisis to promote and the foolish fall for it every time.

"and yet it moves."

 

[Sir Galahad]

How much did you smoke before your first post?

 

[UCFEE]

How much did you smoke before your first post?

Is that the best you've got?

If you've got the data to make an argument against the original post then make the argument.

 

[1ofTheseKnights]

Wealth inequality societal upheaval!!! Thankful to the man upstairs I never fell for any of that crap.

 

[UCFEE]

Wealth inequality societal upheaval!!! Thankful to the man upstairs I never fell for any of that crap.

Where's 85? At least he can make a reasoned argument with facts before he calls someone dumb. Y'all borin.

 

[chemmie]

It isn't like this hasn't happened before. Study some history and you'll figure out exactly how it got this bad, how much worse it is going to get, and how we can get back to prosperity.

With 48% of the voting population still believing in Reaganomics, and ignoring American workers and destroying their right to organize, it is only going to get worse before it finally gets better. The larger the pool of money sitting at the top, the more the good ole American Dream dries up for normal people.

 

[MACHater02]

As for wealth inequality, that is just the latest catch phrase of the left, like war on women or climate change. There is always a BS crisis to promote and the foolish fall for it every time.

Except those things are real.

 

[1ofTheseKnights]

It isn't like this hasn't happened before. Study some history and you'll figure out exactly how it got this bad, how much worse it is going to get, and how we can get back to prosperity.

With 48% of the voting population still believing in Reaganomics, and ignoring American workers and destroying their right to organize, it is only going to get worse before it finally gets better. The larger the pool of money sitting at the top, the more the good ole American Dream dries up for normal people.

 

[Sir Galahad]

Except those things are real.

Yup, as I said the foolish fall for it every time. I'm still waiting on the next ice age they said was coming in the late 70's.

 

[UCFEE]

Yup, as I said the foolish fall for it every time. I'm still waiting on the next ice age they said was coming in the late 70's.

Are you seriously comparing a "conjecture" that didn't pass scientific rigor and was only made a big deal by the media to an observable scientific theory that a vast majority of scientists agree with? It's not even a debate anymore. I've Age theory as just a bunch of yapping media heads.

 

[Sir Galahad]

Sure it is, now tell me how many of the "scientist" receive money to study said field. If it's a fact than why change from global warming to climate change?