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Timing the buyback into the market - When will we stabilize?

fried-chicken

fried-chicken

Diamond Knight
Jan 27, 2011
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Obviously we likely wont be in freefall forever. I believe we are not headed toward long term recession at this moment but there are still a lot of things that need to happen before we see sustained stability. Things that will happen with a fair amount of certainty still out there that I would consider destabilizing

- election uncertainty
- lower than expected earnings report
- rates possibly approaching negative
- regional quarantines
- production supply chain scarcity
- political leaders contracting the virus
- medical system overload / failure
- oil price uncertainty for American companies
- airline cruise and tourism failures

Things that would help to stabilize:
- vaccine breakthrough
- vaccine availability
- OPEC deals
- stimulus recovery for impacted American companies
- bailout for airlines cruise lines and tourism

The way I see it all of the destabilizing issues are within the next 6-9 months and all the restabilizing issues are 2021 or after. Can anyone think of any reason to have their 401k in stocks at this moment?
 
I'm just going to continue putting in my usual TSP contributions, might try to put away a little more in particularly hard hit specific stocks like travel related. But not trying to time the market, and definitely not selling.
 
NinjaKnight said:
I'm just going to continue putting in my usual TSP contributions, might try to put away a little more in particularly hard hit specific stocks like travel related. But not trying to time the market, and definitely not selling.
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Not selling but reallocation. I moved into safer investments the day of the first American death 2/29. Dow was 27000. It's still logical to assume that we haven't seen the worst of this still and it was a no-brainer at that point. I also increased my 401k contributions that day because we are going discount shopping for the rest of the year and every dollar spent is a huge value.
 
"if" the Corona starts to fade away soon we could have a snap back rally. Employment is still solid, lower fuel cost, etc. Honestly I hope for my own selfish reasons it last for another 3 months.
 
Who has the balls to buy the cruise line companies? They are now down almost 50% in a month. Interesting play if the virus goes away soon.
 
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KNIGHTTIME^ said:
Who has the balls to buy the cruise line companies? They are now down almost 50% in a month. Interesting play if the virus goes away soon.
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That thought crossed my mind, but this could cause lasting damage and I could see bankruptcy for some of them
 
I’m waiting until 6:15 E.S.T to see how much my stocks went up today after the Dow plummeted
 
Made $4,517 today

Vanguard Long-term tax exempt fund went up
1.52 % since March 5th. In 4 days!

$7500 on that today

It’s a good, stable fund that pays non taxable dividends monthly
 
Ucfmikes said:
Made $4,517 today

Vanguard Long-term tax exempt fund went up
1.52 % since March 5th. In 4 days!

$7500 on that today

It’s a good, stable fund that pays non taxable dividends monthly
Click to expand...

Are you kidding? I'm in the same one. It is a good day.
 
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So many stock experts here making sooo much money.
Call out your bad bets with your good cowards
 
UCFKNIGHTS88 said:
So many stock experts here making sooo much money.
Call out your bad bets with your good cowards
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Ok. I will. My Vanguard healthcare fund is down, but I have a trivial amount in that. My other fund made so much more than that. Overall, I’m pushing $40,000 in gains since the scare really started 10-14 days ago. If everyone wants to blame Trump for this, then i will thank him just as much.

If you don’t invest somewhat conservative, shit is expected to happen. The stock market is volatile
 
fried-chicken said:
Obviously we likely wont be in freefall forever. I believe we are not headed toward long term recession at this moment but there are still a lot of things that need to happen before we see sustained stability. Things that will happen with a fair amount of certainty still out there that I would consider destabilizing

- election uncertainty
- lower than expected earnings report
- rates possibly approaching negative
- regional quarantines
- production supply chain scarcity
- political leaders contracting the virus
- medical system overload / failure
- oil price uncertainty for American companies
- airline cruise and tourism failures

Things that would help to stabilize:
- vaccine breakthrough
- vaccine availability
- OPEC deals
- stimulus recovery for impacted American companies
- bailout for airlines cruise lines and tourism

The way I see it all of the destabilizing issues are within the next 6-9 months and all the restabilizing issues are 2021 or after. Can anyone think of any reason to have their 401k in stocks at this moment?
Click to expand...
Trump already talking stimulus and bailout like a few hours after this thread post. He's going to blow his wad and be left without many tools if this keeps trending where it's trending.
 
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I will switch some bond funds into stock soon. I’m thinking at 22k, 20k, and 17k.
 
Seems like we're going to open up tomorrow because Trump floated more tax cuts. These greedy MFs keep buying back in and taking a bath as soon as people remember what the actual problem it.
 
fried-chicken said:
Seems like we're going to open up tomorrow because Trump floated more tax cuts. These greedy MFs keep buying back in and taking a bath as soon as people remember what the actual problem it.
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What are you babbling to yourself about now?
 
Ucfmikes said:
What are you babbling to yourself about now?
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Trump proposes tax cut
Markets go up 1 unit
We get more virus spread
Markets go down 2 units

People can't control themselves and buy back in. Payroll tax cuts won't fix the virus.
 
Trump's solution is a bailout in the form of payroll tax cuts?

Republicans don't even hide it anymore. If you haven't realized who they are serving, you're a moron. Good luck sleeping at night knowing your children will have to deal with the financial fallout of Trump.
 
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chemmie said:
Trump's solution is a bailout in the form of payroll tax cuts?

Republicans don't even hide it anymore. If you haven't realized who they are serving, you're a moron. Good luck sleeping at night knowing your children will have to deal with the financial fallout of Trump.
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We should gaurentee paid sick leave for anyone with coronavirus. Get people in a spot where they can afford to stay home if they catch it. Free testing too. We can't afford to have people afraid of their hospital bill after testing and afraid they won't be able to pay their bills if they stay home. Payroll tax doesn't work if you're not working.
 
The Fed is going to drop rates to the floor and Trump is going to try to get payroll taxes lifted and bailout some industries but let's be honest about it, this isn't a financial issue. None of these things should ease the market. We are still headed toward general quarantine and healthcare infrastructure being overloaded/failing.

These little blips of news only last so long and then people remember the situation we are in.
 
fried-chicken said:
The Fed is going to drop rates to the floor and Trump is going to try to get payroll taxes lifted and bailout some industries but let's be honest about it, this isn't a financial issue. None of these things should ease the market. We are still headed toward general quarantine and healthcare infrastructure being overloaded/failing.

These little blips of news only last so long and then people remember the situation we are in.
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Never let a crisis go to waste
 
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Pearl Jam just postponed their upcoming tour and SXSW canceled their events last week. You wonder how many more festivals, tours, and sporting events are going to be canceled or postponed. I would say the market is going to be pretty volatile for a few months at least.
 
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Coachella has been moved to the Fall, and the Ivy League just cancelled both the men and women's tournaments.
 
Trump already drove the fed rate down, started trade wars, bailed out farmers, and ran a trillion dollar deficit with a booming economy and market up 200% over the past 12 years. All the tools that could normally be implemented to ease the effects of this crisis have already been used. Trump is down to bullying the fed with tweets.
 
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hemightbejeremy said:
Trump already drove the fed rate down, started trade wars, bailed out farmers, and ran a trillion dollar deficit with a booming economy and market up 200% over the past 12 years. All the tools that could normally be implemented to ease the effects of this crisis have already been used. Trump is down to bullying the fed with tweets.
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The fed will drop rates to 0% this month and then that's it. We're out of tools unless we go straight to printing money mode.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
Trump already drove the fed rate down, started trade wars, bailed out farmers, and ran a trillion dollar deficit with a booming economy and market up 200% over the past 12 years. All the tools that could normally be implemented to ease the effects of this crisis have already been used. Trump is down to bullying the fed with tweets.
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...and people still think he is doing a great job. Wait until their children get to deal with this mess.
 
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Through this whole deal, my portfolio only lost 4%. I got lucky with the timing on converting my stock positions to cash. I started dribbling money back into stocks yesterday. Based on PE ratios there are a lot of deals to be had. When the market recovers, I will recover that measly 4% and expect to make a killing.
 
fried-chicken said:
The fed will drop rates to 0% this month and then that's it. We're out of tools unless we go straight to printing money mode.
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Not likely but within the realm of possibility. The financial sector is worth 31 trillion bucks so I'm sure there's a bit of a freakout going on at the fed. They did it to themselves.
 
Through this whole deal, my portfolio only lost 4%. I got lucky with the timing on converting my stock positions to cash. I started dribbling money back into stocks yesterday. Based on PE ratios there are a lot of deals to be had. When the market recovers, I will recover that measly 4% and expect to make a killing.
 
fabknight said:
Through this whole deal, my portfolio only lost 4%. I got lucky with the timing on converting my stock positions to cash. I started dribbling money back into stocks yesterday. Based on PE ratios there are a lot of deals to be had. When the market recovers, I will recover that measly 4% and expect to make a killing.
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You can't even post on a message board properly and are bragging about selling during a downturn [roll]

God this board is incredible, normally you have to pay for the amount of comedy provided, but this is free entertainment.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
Trump already drove the fed rate down, started trade wars, bailed out farmers, and ran a trillion dollar deficit with a booming economy and market up 200% over the past 12 years. All the tools that could normally be implemented to ease the effects of this crisis have already been used. Trump is down to bullying the fed with tweets.
Click to expand...

Underrated post. Absolute joke, every true republican is absolutely ashamed of his pathetic economic performance.

The trillion dollar deficit alone is horrifying, but evidently deficits only matter to these people when it's politically convenient for them.
 
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