Its because the model uses the winners of New Hampshire, and South Carolina additionally as a composite if the NH winner didnt get the nomination.
Trump 91-95% win probability
- Thread starter Crazyhole
- Start date
Its because the model uses the winners of New Hampshire, and South Carolina additionally as a composite if the NH winner didnt get the nomination.
Ok, same question to you. What would have to happen for Trump to have a 91% chance of winning?
Wishful thinking, Crazy.
- Last time a sizable number of voters assumed that Trump would 'grow into the job.' Instead, when it comes to the dignity and respect for the office, he's lowered it to an all-time level.
- Biden doesn't have anywhere close to Hilary's negatives.
- Trump took full advantage of Hilary's weaknesses with White male voters in the Rust Belt. Joe has brought those voters back into the Democrat fold.
- Some of Trump's harshest critics are members of his own party. The Lincoln Project ads have been skewering him.
- Where are the voters going to come from to fuel his miracle comeback? Old people that he's alienated with his 'screw the pandemic, go economy' stance? Military people who he's shown his distain for time and time again? 'Normal' Republicans appalled by veiled racism stances?
That's like asking me what would have to happen for Nebraska to have a 91% chance of winning the national championship this season.
I guess for a sunshine pumper like me, there's always a chance. But the odds are heavily stacked against it.
Its a theoretical question. Come up with a theoretical answer.
If anyone is interested in putting their money where their mouth is, you can currently get odds for Trump +135 to win the presidency (100 dollar bet pays 235 for a Trump win).
https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics
https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics
cases continue to go up because we are doing significantly more testing than before. yet the death counts overall are going down.
again, covid deaths are going down.
this was an opinion on how trump gets 91% advantage. massive chaos and riots tend to push voters to the law/order politicians.
The polling is not showing that and the suburbs are more diverse now. Biden is destroying him w suburban women
w the electoral college nothing is a sure thing but I would wager on Bovada that Biden gets at least 4 million more votes in the popular vote count
-The biggest thing Biden has going for him is that he's not named Hillary. There were a ton of people in the middle who didn't vote her based only on that. That might have changed, for some.
-Nate Silver also is pretty good at saying who will win and failed miserably in 2016.
-Trump had a pretty straight shot to re-election. The economy was buzzing along and his approval ratings kept trending upward. However, since March this pandemic, the race riots, and his constant foot-in-mouth syndrome have his chances in serious doubt. That's just straight facts.
-Democrats do two things very well: protesting in the streets and not showing up to vote. So far, we've got the former covered.
-I am sure there are people out there like Der Shookster who were already practicing saying "Madame President" in front of the mirror in 2016. Nothing is for sure in the effing month of July either way.
-Nate Silver also is pretty good at saying who will win and failed miserably in 2016.
-Trump had a pretty straight shot to re-election. The economy was buzzing along and his approval ratings kept trending upward. However, since March this pandemic, the race riots, and his constant foot-in-mouth syndrome have his chances in serious doubt. That's just straight facts.
-Democrats do two things very well: protesting in the streets and not showing up to vote. So far, we've got the former covered.
-I am sure there are people out there like Der Shookster who were already practicing saying "Madame President" in front of the mirror in 2016. Nothing is for sure in the effing month of July either way.
Republicans don't like education, they don't want to pay teachers fairly, they want people to remain uneducated and dumb so they'll vote for idiots like FRUMP.
Then what’s your fukcin excuse?
Positive rate is up and death counts have climbed the last 4 days. Between 2-3 weeks after the cases started to climb back up.
![[roll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/roll.r191677.gif "roll [roll]")
There are at least 30 million people out there like Crazy, 85 and Mike that didn't vote last time. The silent majority.
I didn't vote last time and I won't this time unless Biden picks a horrible VP.
Can you just stop posting? You’re a total idiot. People post crap when they are trying to Troll. You post crap when you’re TRYING to be intelligent, but it’s not humanly possible for you
I voted several times. One for Mike, once for Vladimir, once for Boris, and once for Svetlana.
I’ll vote many more times this go a round
Florida’s New Teachers Will Make $47,500 To Start After Governor Signs Pay Raise Bill
Not that the teachers don’t deserve it, but for comparison’s sake that’s about what a police officer with 5 years experience and a relevant bachelor’s degree in Florida makes in base pay.
The way that things are going, the police should start out at $50,000-$60,000. Nobody wants that job anymore
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