A bowl game is on the line this week.
Improving to 5-4 following the 37-6 win against Tulane, UCF can officially become bowl eligible with a win this Saturday against Cincinnati.
If that happens, the Knights would join a group of bowl-eligible American Athletic Conference teams that already includes Navy, Tulsa, USF, Temple, Houston and Memphis.
As for the other AAC teams hoping to get there, on paper, UCF has the best chance of reaching the necessary six wins:
-UCF (5-4) must win one game with three left: Cincinnati, Tulsa and @ USF
-Cincinnati (4-5) must win two games with three left: @ UCF, Memphis, @ Tulsa
-SMU (4-5) must win two games with three left: @ ECU, USF, Navy
-ECU (3-6) must win out in their last three games: SMU, Navy, @ Temple
-Tulane (3-6) must win out in their last three games: @ Houston, Temple, @ UConn
-UConn (3-7) is already guaranteed a losing season.
SMU, if they can beat ECU, would then have two remaining games to pull off an upset. Cincinnati the same way, if they can win on the road at UCF. But the Bearcats look to be in a freefall with some dismal performances of late and the fanbase quickly turning on Tommy Tuberville.
The American has eight bowl tie-ins. There are already six eligible teams. UCF would make seven.
While nobody wants to entertain a scenario in which UCF loses their final three games and finishes 5-7, if that's what happens when it's all said and done, the Knights could still go bowling. There are 40 bowl games and 80 spots. After this weekend, 48 teams are already bowl eligible. It's a bit soon to start guesstimating whether there may be a shortage of 6-6 or better teams for the 80 spots, but if there are, 5-7 teams would get the next crack for any vacancies and they would go to schools in order of APR ranking.
Last year, three 5-7 teams made bowl games.
In the latest APR rankings, UCF was tied for No. 11 with Clemson, Stanford and Utah (all three of those are already eligible). These are the schools ahead of UCF in the APR pecking order: Duke, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Army, Air Force, Georgia Tech and North Texas.
Of those schools, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Air Force are already bowl eligible but there's bunch of 5-7 possibilities among the others.
-Duke is 3-6. Schedule: North Carolina, @ Pittsburgh and @ Miami.
-Northwestern is 3-5. Schedule: @ Purdue, @ Minnesota and Illinois.
-Vanderbilt is 4-5. Schedule: @ Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
-Army is 5-4. Schedule: @ Notre Dame, Morgan State and @ Navy.
-Georgia Tech is 5-4. Schedule: @ Virginia Tech, Virginia and @ Georgia.
-North Texas is 4-5. Schedule: @ Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, @ UTEP.
Even if a team is 5-7, sometimes schools would decline a bowl game. Too early to know.
Obviously, UCF would rather just get win No. 6 on Saturday and know for certain they'll be going bowling somewhere.
Here are the eight AAC bowl tie-ins, listed by date:
AutoNation Cure Bowl / Orlando, Fla.
Saturday, Dec. 17 - 5:30 p.m.
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Miami Beach Bowl / Miami, Fla.
Monday, Dec. 19 - 2:30 p.m.
AAC vs. MAC
Boca Raton Bowl / Boca Raton, Fla.
Tuesday, Dec. 20 - 7 p.m.
AAC vs. C-USA
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl / Nassau, Bahamas
Friday, Dec. 23 - 1 p.m.
AAC vs. C-USA or MAC
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl / Fort Worth, Tex.
Friday, Dec. 23 - 4:30
AAC/Navy vs. Big 12
St. Petersburg Bowl / St. Petersburg, Fla.
Monday, Dec. 26 - 11 a.m.
AAC vs. ACC
Military Bowl / Annapolis, Md.
Tuesday, Dec. 27 - 3:30 p.m.
AAC vs. ACC
Birmingham Bowl / Birmingham, Ala.
Thursday, Dec. 29 - 2 p.m.
AAC vs. SEC
The AAC says there is no official pecking order, but it has been my understanding that the Cure Bowl is relegated to last-tier status behind the other seven. Given the likely options, I believe UCF wouldn't mind staying home and going to the Cure Bowl. But as it stands now, if UCF is one of seven bowl eligible teams and no others qualify, the Cure Bowl may be without an AAC team for the second straight year.
And that's assuming the AAC won't send a representative to the Access Bowl. Right now it appears Western Michigan has the inside track, but if they falter the AAC champion could come back into play. If that happens, that would leave another prospective AAC bowl without a team.
Unless Navy lands the access bowl, they are already contractually linked to play in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Since there is no designated "champions" bowl, there has been an understanding that the league will basically let the champion choose which bowl they want to go to. After that, the league, in conjunction with the schools, fills out the rest of the slots. If school preferences are considered, they'd likely go by record. For instance, a 9-3 or 10-2 USF would be accommodated before a 6-6 UCF.
If I had to guess right now, if UCF is indeed eligible and there are a total of seven bowl-eligible AAC schools, and no AAC team in the access bowl:
Armed Forces: Navy*
Military: Temple
Birmingham: Houston or Tulsa
St. Petersburg: USF
Miami Beach: UCF
Boca Raton: Memphis or Houston/Tulsa
Bahamas: Memphis or Houston/Tulsa
Cure: No AAC team
Temple is a geographic fit for the Military.
Since five of the eight games are in FL/Bahamas and Navy is already a lock* for Armed Forces, I think Birmingham goes to a West Division team this year. It may depend on who actually wants it. If Tulsa wins the division or league, it's very possible they want more of a destination bowl game (FL or Bahamas). The SEC may not have even have a team to send there.
Memphis is three hours away from Birmingham, but they went there last year and year before went to the Miami Beach Bowl where they got into a fight with BYU. So I'm thinking they go to Boca or Bahamas.
Houston last appeared in the Birmingham game following the 2013 season. Tulsa has never played in Birmingham.
AAC may feel UCF has the best chance to sell tickets in Miami on a Monday at 2:30. Miami Beach Bowl has a beyond terrible day and time. But it's owned by the AAC. They will get a team.
It really is a crapshoot - I could see UCF in the Miami Beach, Boca Raton or Bahamas Bowls. Cure Bowl, if there are only seven teams, the AAC would have do them a big favor by awarding them a team. The contracts may not even allow it. I hope to clarify that this week.
Bahamas Bowl is interesting because of the passport requirement.
Given the options, if I'm UCF, I'd probably want Cure and then Boca, in that order. Get the game out of the way, let the players go home for Christmas. I have Boca ahead of Miami Beach because Tuesday at 7 to me is better than Monday at 2:30.
But it may not matter what UCF prefers (and I'm just guessing on what would be their preferences). UCF actually helps operate the Bahamas Bowl (as well as the Battle 4 Atlantis basketball tournament).
First things first though - UCF needs to get that sixth win before we can really start to obsess about this stuff.
Improving to 5-4 following the 37-6 win against Tulane, UCF can officially become bowl eligible with a win this Saturday against Cincinnati.
If that happens, the Knights would join a group of bowl-eligible American Athletic Conference teams that already includes Navy, Tulsa, USF, Temple, Houston and Memphis.
As for the other AAC teams hoping to get there, on paper, UCF has the best chance of reaching the necessary six wins:
-UCF (5-4) must win one game with three left: Cincinnati, Tulsa and @ USF
-Cincinnati (4-5) must win two games with three left: @ UCF, Memphis, @ Tulsa
-SMU (4-5) must win two games with three left: @ ECU, USF, Navy
-ECU (3-6) must win out in their last three games: SMU, Navy, @ Temple
-Tulane (3-6) must win out in their last three games: @ Houston, Temple, @ UConn
-UConn (3-7) is already guaranteed a losing season.
SMU, if they can beat ECU, would then have two remaining games to pull off an upset. Cincinnati the same way, if they can win on the road at UCF. But the Bearcats look to be in a freefall with some dismal performances of late and the fanbase quickly turning on Tommy Tuberville.
The American has eight bowl tie-ins. There are already six eligible teams. UCF would make seven.
While nobody wants to entertain a scenario in which UCF loses their final three games and finishes 5-7, if that's what happens when it's all said and done, the Knights could still go bowling. There are 40 bowl games and 80 spots. After this weekend, 48 teams are already bowl eligible. It's a bit soon to start guesstimating whether there may be a shortage of 6-6 or better teams for the 80 spots, but if there are, 5-7 teams would get the next crack for any vacancies and they would go to schools in order of APR ranking.
Last year, three 5-7 teams made bowl games.
In the latest APR rankings, UCF was tied for No. 11 with Clemson, Stanford and Utah (all three of those are already eligible). These are the schools ahead of UCF in the APR pecking order: Duke, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Army, Air Force, Georgia Tech and North Texas.
Of those schools, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Air Force are already bowl eligible but there's bunch of 5-7 possibilities among the others.
-Duke is 3-6. Schedule: North Carolina, @ Pittsburgh and @ Miami.
-Northwestern is 3-5. Schedule: @ Purdue, @ Minnesota and Illinois.
-Vanderbilt is 4-5. Schedule: @ Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
-Army is 5-4. Schedule: @ Notre Dame, Morgan State and @ Navy.
-Georgia Tech is 5-4. Schedule: @ Virginia Tech, Virginia and @ Georgia.
-North Texas is 4-5. Schedule: @ Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, @ UTEP.
Even if a team is 5-7, sometimes schools would decline a bowl game. Too early to know.
Obviously, UCF would rather just get win No. 6 on Saturday and know for certain they'll be going bowling somewhere.
Here are the eight AAC bowl tie-ins, listed by date:
AutoNation Cure Bowl / Orlando, Fla.
Saturday, Dec. 17 - 5:30 p.m.
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Miami Beach Bowl / Miami, Fla.
Monday, Dec. 19 - 2:30 p.m.
AAC vs. MAC
Boca Raton Bowl / Boca Raton, Fla.
Tuesday, Dec. 20 - 7 p.m.
AAC vs. C-USA
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl / Nassau, Bahamas
Friday, Dec. 23 - 1 p.m.
AAC vs. C-USA or MAC
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl / Fort Worth, Tex.
Friday, Dec. 23 - 4:30
AAC/Navy vs. Big 12
St. Petersburg Bowl / St. Petersburg, Fla.
Monday, Dec. 26 - 11 a.m.
AAC vs. ACC
Military Bowl / Annapolis, Md.
Tuesday, Dec. 27 - 3:30 p.m.
AAC vs. ACC
Birmingham Bowl / Birmingham, Ala.
Thursday, Dec. 29 - 2 p.m.
AAC vs. SEC
The AAC says there is no official pecking order, but it has been my understanding that the Cure Bowl is relegated to last-tier status behind the other seven. Given the likely options, I believe UCF wouldn't mind staying home and going to the Cure Bowl. But as it stands now, if UCF is one of seven bowl eligible teams and no others qualify, the Cure Bowl may be without an AAC team for the second straight year.
And that's assuming the AAC won't send a representative to the Access Bowl. Right now it appears Western Michigan has the inside track, but if they falter the AAC champion could come back into play. If that happens, that would leave another prospective AAC bowl without a team.
Unless Navy lands the access bowl, they are already contractually linked to play in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Since there is no designated "champions" bowl, there has been an understanding that the league will basically let the champion choose which bowl they want to go to. After that, the league, in conjunction with the schools, fills out the rest of the slots. If school preferences are considered, they'd likely go by record. For instance, a 9-3 or 10-2 USF would be accommodated before a 6-6 UCF.
If I had to guess right now, if UCF is indeed eligible and there are a total of seven bowl-eligible AAC schools, and no AAC team in the access bowl:
Armed Forces: Navy*
Military: Temple
Birmingham: Houston or Tulsa
St. Petersburg: USF
Miami Beach: UCF
Boca Raton: Memphis or Houston/Tulsa
Bahamas: Memphis or Houston/Tulsa
Cure: No AAC team
Temple is a geographic fit for the Military.
Since five of the eight games are in FL/Bahamas and Navy is already a lock* for Armed Forces, I think Birmingham goes to a West Division team this year. It may depend on who actually wants it. If Tulsa wins the division or league, it's very possible they want more of a destination bowl game (FL or Bahamas). The SEC may not have even have a team to send there.
Memphis is three hours away from Birmingham, but they went there last year and year before went to the Miami Beach Bowl where they got into a fight with BYU. So I'm thinking they go to Boca or Bahamas.
Houston last appeared in the Birmingham game following the 2013 season. Tulsa has never played in Birmingham.
AAC may feel UCF has the best chance to sell tickets in Miami on a Monday at 2:30. Miami Beach Bowl has a beyond terrible day and time. But it's owned by the AAC. They will get a team.
It really is a crapshoot - I could see UCF in the Miami Beach, Boca Raton or Bahamas Bowls. Cure Bowl, if there are only seven teams, the AAC would have do them a big favor by awarding them a team. The contracts may not even allow it. I hope to clarify that this week.
Bahamas Bowl is interesting because of the passport requirement.
Given the options, if I'm UCF, I'd probably want Cure and then Boca, in that order. Get the game out of the way, let the players go home for Christmas. I have Boca ahead of Miami Beach because Tuesday at 7 to me is better than Monday at 2:30.
But it may not matter what UCF prefers (and I'm just guessing on what would be their preferences). UCF actually helps operate the Bahamas Bowl (as well as the Battle 4 Atlantis basketball tournament).
First things first though - UCF needs to get that sixth win before we can really start to obsess about this stuff.
