Following UCF's win against Cincinnati, the Knights currently sit in fourth place in the American standings. Many teams have two games remaining. UCF has just one, a Thursday date at 1-15 USF in Tampa.
The top five teams receive a first-round bye. I think we all understand how important that is, but especially so for a team like UCF operating on limited depth.
A third-place finish for UCF is still possible, but may have been a bit more realistic had Houston lost on the road to Memphis last night (the Cougars won by one point on a controversial late foul call).
Remaining AAC games:
Wednesday, March 1
UConn at ECU (ESPNU) - 7 p.m.
Thursday, March 2
UCF at USF (ESPNU) - 7 p.m.
Houston at Cincinnati (ESPN2) - 7 p.m.
Tulsa at SMU (CBSSN) - 8 p.m.
Tulane at Memphis (ESPNU) - 9 p.m.
Saturday, March 4
Memphis at SMU (ESPN2) - 4 p.m.
Sunday, March 5
Cincinnati at UConn (CBS) - 12 noon
Temple at USF (ESPNU) - 2 p.m.
ECU at Houston (CBSSN) - 4 p.m.
Tulsa at Tulane (ESPNU) 4 p.m.
Here's a break down of what can happen.
IF UCF BEATS USF TO FINISH 11-7:
-UCF can earn the No. 3 seed only if Houston loses their remaining two games: Thursday at Cincinnati and Sunday at home vs. East Carolina, AND UConn loses one more game. If UCF and Houston finish tied at 11-7, UCF holds the tiebreaker by virtue of a victory against Cincinnati.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but since both teams split the season series 1-1, the next tiebreaker is record against top teams. Houston was 0-2 vs. SMU and UCF 0-1 vs. SMU, and in this scenario, Houston is 0-2 vs. Cincinnati and UCF went 1-1 vs. Cincinnati, so advantage UCF.
-What if there is a three-way for third place? That's if the above scenario happens (UCF beats USF, Houston loses out) PLUS UConn wins their final two games: Wednesday at ECU and Sunday home vs. Cincinnati.
According to the AAC media guide, all three teams would be grouped in what they call a "mini conference" with overall records between the three teams compared - best winning percentage being the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker order would go Houston (3-1), UConn (2-2) and then UCF (1-3).
-As long as UCF beats USF, they are a lock for a first-round bye. If not third place, No. 4 or 5 seed depends on what happens with UConn.
UConn plays at ECU on Wednesday and hosts Cincinnati on Sunday.
If UConn loses one more game, UCF clinches No. 4 seed.
If UConn wins out to become tied with UCF at 11-7, UConn gets the tiebreaker (they went 2-0 vs. UCF) and thusly gets the No. 4 seed and UCF No. 5. But in the grand scheme it really makes no competitive difference as the 4/5 seeds play each other in the Quarterfinals on Friday.
-Is there a way UCF can avoid UConn in the 4/5 game? It would have been to UCF's benefit if Memphis had defeated Houston last night - not only would third place be in more realistic play, but that also would have given Memphis another win to try to catch UConn in the league standings and if I'm understanding things correctly, Memphis would have had the tiebreaker over UConn.
There are two teams that can catch UConn: Memphis and Tulsa. However, both have SMU in their remaining schedules.
UConn (9-7): Wednesday at ECU, Sunday home vs. Cincinnati
Memphis (8-8): Thursday home vs. Tulane, Saturday at SMU
Tulsa (8-8): Thursday at SMU, Sunday home vs. Tulane
There are so many variables in play, I'll just say a huge door opens if UConn loses to ECU.
IF UCF LOSES TO USF AND FINISHES 10-8
-The only way UCF could lose out on a top five seed is if Memphis or Tulsa win out. UCF's season series with both teams were split, so it would come down to a tiebreaker with records against SMU or Cincinnati. In the event of a three-way tie between UCF, Tulsa and Memphis, all teams split with each other, so tiebreaker would give advantage to the best record against the top AAC teams. Since Tulsa and Memphis winning out require SMU to lose twice, that means Cincinnati should clinch first place, and UCF would be the only team with a win over Cincinnati, so UCF should have the tiebreaker.
If it's UCF going head to head with just Memphis or Tulsa, it all depends on where SMU and Cincinnati fall in the final standings (first or second place) to determine which victory proves to be the tiebreaker (UCF's win vs. Cincinnati or Memphis/Tulsa's win vs. SMU).
THE TL;DR VERSION
-UCF clinches a top-five seed and first-round bye if they beat USF on Thursday.
-UCF can finish as high as No. 3, but need to win out and have Houston lose out.
-Short of finishing No. 3, UCF can clinch no worse than a No. 4 seed if they beat USF and UConn loses one more game.
-Odds currently favor a UCF/UConn meeting in the Friday Quarterfinals (No. 4 vs. No. 5) unless some upsets happen.
-Even if UCF loses to USF, a top-five seed is still probable, but could be in jeopardy if Memphis and/or Tulsa win out, but that means they'd have to beat SMU (unlikely).
