For UCF, every game is a must win at this point.
To salvage an otherwise disappointing season, attaining bowl eligibility is now the goal. With a 4-6 record, to keep their eight-year bowl streak alive, the Knights must beat West Virginia in Morgantown this Saturday and then beat Utah at home on Black Friday.
But first things first with the Mountaineers. To learn more about WVU, which like UCF has underperformed this season, I caught up with Keenan Cummings of WVSports.com.
WVU finished 2023 on a strong note with a 9-4 record and bowl win against North Carolina. Returning quarterback Garrett Greene and other key pieces, WVU was thought to be a dark horse that could contend for the Big 12 Championship.
The season has not gone according to plan. WVU is 5-5 and facing bowl eligibility issues like UCF, though they just need to win one of their final two games.
"There was a lot of momentum coming into this season," Cummings said. "Now, not as much outside necessarily. They weren't getting a lot of hype outside the program. They were picked seventh in the league. But internally, this team had high aspirations. They thought that they were going to be a lot better than people thought they were going to be."
"West Virginia has basically been, for lack of a better term, a coin flip this season. They've had chances to win quite a few games and have not done it. Pitt sticks out like a sore thumb. They're up 10 with three minutes left and lost that game.
"And then on the other coin, they've had games they probably should have lost that they rallied. They were down 11 to Kansas with five minutes left.
"So, the thing about this team and the thing about Neal Brown's teams since he's been here, and it's really kind of the crux of the frustration of the fan base, is consistency. There just hasn't been any consistency. Outside of that stretch to close last year, I think Neal Brown is now 36-34 in his six years here."
Neal Brown received a contract extension during this past offseason. If WVU were to fire him, he'd collect a buyout in the $9M range. Not insignificant money as programs are gearing up for revenue share. The fanbase would like to see a change, though Cummings says a change is not guaranteed.
"That is the million-dollar question right now," Cummings said. "I think right now it's up in the air, and that seems almost silly to say two weeks out from signing day, but really, I think that it's about how they finish.
"And I think that there's a big buyout attached, obviously, which makes this decision more difficult for West Virginia, especially in lieu of the revenue sharing and everything else that's involved, kind of entering uncharted waters in athletics. That's why you're seeing a lot of college programs kind of press stop.
"You see what happened at Florida and Baylor and some other places where their head coaches have struggled (and have retained their jobs). I don't think it's necessarily over for Neal. I think they have to play well at home in this game against UCF."
Brown's status is obviously the No. 1 issue on WVU's Blue Lot message board.
"The (fanbase) frustration is really as high as I've seen it," Cummings said. "I think that the buy-in was real at the start of the year. I think people were ready to get behind this thing. It's been rocky at times, people want to give him time to get over the hump. And then last year happened, there was some optimism and now we're kind of back to square one."
Much like some UCF fan's fascination to potentially bring back Scott Frost as head coach, a similar sentiment exists among some WVU fans who would like to see a return of Rich Rodriguez, who left Morgantown for Michigan after the 2007 season. While he flopped in Ann Arbor and was fired by UM after three seasons, Rodriguez has had decent head coaching stints since at Arizona (2012-2017) and now Jacksonville State (2022-present).
"I think there's always going to be a portion of the fan base that would like to have Rich back," Cummings said. "Of course, there's a lot, there's a portion that wouldn't because of how that whole thing went down.
"Do I think it's likely? Probably not, but as weird as this is to say, I think the fracture in this fanbase happened when Rich left, (and his return) would almost unite them in a sense, just the way things are going. I think people miss his brand of football when they talk about Rich, just how physical and tough they were, they played smart."
In Big 12 play, WVU has beat Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Cincinnati while losing to Iowa State, Kansas State and Baylor.
Senior quarterback Garrett Greene, a native of Tallahassee, returned for his fifth season.
"I think he's played well at times, other times not so well," Cummings said. "His biggest factor here is what he can do with his legs... Accuracy continues to be an issue at times. They haven't been hitting on deep balls as much as they did last year. That was one of the things that really helped this offense. They could run on everybody and then they could hit those deep shot plays.
"They've struggled to kind of connect on those at times this year, and that's not going to get any better with (wide receiver) Traylon Ray out for the year now with a leg injury that he sustained last week. So that's been the problem.
"I do think Garrett is great from a leadership perspective. He's kind of that guy that leads this team and I'd hate to say it's been a disappointing senior year because that's not true. He's looked really good at times. He's done some great things, but overall the product is really not where anybody expected to be pretty much across the board."
Offensively, running the ball is WVU's bread and butter. In Big 12 games, the Mountaineers rank second to UCF in rushing averaging 199.1 yards per game. They split the load between Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson Jr. The duo nearly mirror each other in carries (116 to 113). White is averaging nearly 64 yards, Donaldson 53 yards.
Hudson Clement is their leading receiver in terms of yards (31 receptions for 454 yards, 3 TD).
"He's a former walk on, but isn't really the type of guy you'd think was as a walk-on," Cummings said. "He's big, can run fast. Pretty good wide receiver that West Virginia has developed as a homegrown kid."
Tight end Kole Taylor is also a receiving threat.
"They're going to use him a lot," Cummings said. "He has 35 catches this year. That's what he had last year and led the team. So he's already over pacing that and I has a couple of games left here. So he's a weapon in the red zone."
"So they're going to throw the ball some, but they're at their best when they're running the football."
Defensively, WVU is giving up 30.6 points in Big 12 games (No. 12 in the league) and 399.7 yards (No. 11). Rushing defense is near the top of the Big 12 though.
"When it comes to stopping the run, they've been very good," Cummings said. "The front seven's done a pretty good job there. It's the passing game that's really hurt them. Some of that is secondary play. Some of that was earlier in the year. They just did not have guys getting lined up right. Sometimes they got the wrong calls in and it was kind of a mess.
"They did have a defensive coordinator change, moving to Jeff Koonz. They dismissed Jordan Lesley, who had been part of Neal's first staff and had been calling the defense since 2020. (In the first game after the change) they played great against Cincinnati. They forced three turnovers. They had six turnovers forced on the year coming into that game. They forced three turnovers and two of them went for touchdowns
"They gave up some yards, but some of that was the way the game went. West Virginia had like 40 plays and you have two defensive touchdowns, so the other team is gonna have the ball.
"Last week (against Baylor), in the first half, West Virginia's defense played really poor. Baylor had 35 points and over 300 yards. Second half, they played much better. They only allowed 14 points, held Baylor in check, got three consecutive stops, which for this defense has been a tall task at times. And this is kind of what I speak to about the consistency."
Top defensive players include defensive end Sean Martin (3.5 sacks), nose tackle Fatorma Mulbah (13 tackles alone in the Cincinnati game), linebacker Josiah Trotter (second leading tackler), linebacker Reid Carrico (current Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week with 16 tackles vs. Baylor) and safety Anthony Wilson (leading tackler).
The current Morgantown weather forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s and potential rain. Snow is forecast for Thursday and Friday.
"These teams want to run the football, so I'm not sure it's going to have a major effect in the game, but it could be a little dicey," Cummings said.
Saturday is also WVU's Senior Day.
"All the stuff I said before about the frustration and everything, I do have to give this fan base a lot of credit," Cummings said. "For the most part, they've showed out for practically every home game. They had 52,000 I think, last week for Baylor. That's a game that wouldn't move the needle for a lot of people, but they showed up.
"Now, this game might be a little more challenging. You lost another one at home. They're 2-4 at home this year. That just doesn't happen often at West Virginia. If they lose against UCF, I think it'd be the only time since 1990, I believe, that they've lost five games at home.
"There's frustration. I think that'll keep some people home. Usually, there's a pretty good turnout. I would assume (attendance) around 48 to 50-something."
For UCF fans traveling to Morgantown, Cummings says you should check out downtown Morgantown and High Street.
"It's a college-like scene, but it's nice," Cummings said. "There's a lot of family-type establishments too."
His restaurant recommendations include Mario's Fishbowl (multiple locations).
"Really good wings, good atmosphere... If you go there, get their Cowboy Ranch wings."
Kegler's is also a good sports bar.
"Also good wings. The "Gold" (sauce) is kind of their name brand for wings."
Other recommended spots include Boston Beanery and The GOAT Country Roads Pub.
For UCF fans hoping to watch the Friday night men's basketball game vs. Wisconsin on CBS Sports Network, Cummings felt most of those places could accommodate. Kegler's for sure.
What are his keys to the game?
"I think as simple as this sounds, I think whichever team wins the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball is going to have success in this game," Cummings said. "I think both these teams can throw it, but they want to run it. That's kind of what they do. Whichever team is able to stop the other team, in a sense, and run on the other team or hit some of those big plays.
"Obviously, it's cliche to say turnovers, penalties, all the stuff, big special teams plays. But outside that, I think that's where this game's won. West Virginia's got to do a good job wrapping up RJ Harvey. I thought he was really good last year. His numbers this year are even better. I think that's going to be key.
"West Virginia's got to be able to not beat themselves in a sense. They've got to score when they're in the red zone, do the things that at times have been difficult for them.
"I think this is a game that really is a toss-up at this point of the season. West Virginia's got home field advantage, but as I mentioned earlier, it hasn't really been a home field advantage this year."
