It's still 71 million any way you slice it, but you are probably correct about 2016.I think that goes both ways also - I think many on the right over-estimate Trump's appeal to voters. I honestly don't believe there is a single D he beats in 2016 EXCEPT Hillary. In 2020 he had all the inherent advantages of incumbency and dramatically underperformed his 2016 numbers.
Your point on him winning easily in 2020 if he was a decent human being is true though. Incumbents have a HUGE advantage and COVID should have been the existential threat rallied people around a POTUS who could lead. The fact that he lost in spite of that shows the limit of his appeal.
I guess my point is that these people aren't going anywhere and if anything, they're just going to be even more pissed off come 2024 if the stupid dems persist with their cultural/woke/cancel wars that obviously always work so well for them.