As Scott Frost said this week, the margin for victory can be razor thin.
UCF could be 5-1. Instead, the Knights are 3-3 with a pair of heartbreak finishes: A double-overtime loss to Maryland and this past week's 26-25 setback to Temple in which the Owls drove 70 yards in 31 seconds for a final-second, go-ahead score.
It's been a learning experience for players and coaches alike. The offense has struggled to find consistency at times and penalties have been a major problem. The defense played well enough to win those two games, though that final Temple drive was not a shining moment.
"I want these guys to know their effort is great," Frost said earlier this week. "They've played good enough football to be 5-1 right now. The reason they're 3-3 and not 5-1 is we make too many mistakes that teams who aren't used to winning make. That comes down to very small margins. This league, this year, from watching it, everybody is close. There's not going to be a lot of 50-14 games in this league. Everybody is going to give you a battle. So when the league is that close, the margin of victory is small. Our discipline is the little thing that we can do to close that margin and turn these into winning games."
Must-win is an overused term, but UCF likely can't afford to lose Saturday's game at UConn if they hope to make a bowl game.
And just like the visit to East Hartford two years ago, rainy and chilly conditions are expected. UConn's 37-29 win against UCF in 2014 - dubbed "HeaterGate" after George O'Leary had the sideline heaters unplugged because he didn't like his players huddling for warmth- represented the Knights' first and only loss in two seasons of American Athletic Conference play (2013-14).
Certainly not ideal weather for a team from Florida, but the Knights will have to battle through it.
Here's a look at every game involving the American. Picks made are head-to-head and not factoring in the spread.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21
USF (6-1, 3-0 AAC) at Temple (4-3, 2-1 AAC)
7 p.m., ESPN
The Buzz: A big game with East Division implications. For now, Temple appears poised as the team best situated to challenge USF, but they will need to win this game. An Owls victory would put them in a first-place tie and holding the coveted tiebreaker. A loss would pretty much put Temple out of realistic contention as they would need USF to lose three out of their four in addition to winning out. USF won last year's game in Tampa, 44-23, and are currently riding a three-game winning streak coming off a 44-27 home win against UConn. The Bulls rank eighth nationaly in rushing (268.4 ypg) and scoring offense (44.1 ppg). Temple stunned UCF last week with a last-second touchdown to put them over the top, 26-25. The Knights had led the entire game. Phillip Walker had struggled passing the ball until that final drive when they marched down the field 70 yards in 30 seconds. DE Hasson Reddick is a stud, leading the Owls with 35 tackles, 6.5 sacks and 14.0 TFL.
The Line: USF by 6
The Pick: USF
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22
UCF (3-3, 1-1 AAC) at UConn (3-4, 1-3 AAC)
12 noon, ESPNews
The Buzz: The much-anticipated Civil ConFLiCT rivalry game. Two years ago, UConn gave UCF its first and only AAC loss in two seasons (2013-14). They also beat beat UCF 40-13 last year, but who didn't. Though the final drive against Temple sticks out, UCF's defense has played well enough for the team to be 5-1. It's the offense that has struggled at times, especially last week in the second half against Temple. McKenzie Milton, who has been bothered by a foot injury, has been named UCF's starter going forward. UCF will be playing without starting LG Tyler Hudanick, who appears to be out for the year after sustaining an injury last week. Like Temple, UConn has a stout rushing defense, allowing just 129.9 ypg. The first quarter hasn't been kind to the Huskies as they've been outscored 38-3 in that period. UConn beat Cincinnati 20-9, but has lost conference games to Navy (28-24), Houston (42-14) and USF (42-27).
The Line: UCF by 3.5
The Pick: UCF
Memphis (5-1, 2-0 AAC) at No. 24 Navy (4-1, 3-0 AAC)
3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
The Buzz: Remember last season when Memphis was ranked No. 13 and in the midst of a 15-game winning streak and everybody was looking forward to a Memphis-Houston battle for the West? Well, Navy derailed that streak with a 45-20 win, a week before that UM-UH game. And just like the USF-Temple game, the winner of this contest will gain an edge to win their side of the division. Memphis is coming off a 24-14 win against Tulane, though the Green Wave did hold the Tigers to their lowest point total all season. Navy was supposed to play last Thursday, but Hurricane Matthew washed out their road game at East Carolina. It's been rescheduled for Nov. 19. The Midshipmen are coming off one of their biggest wins in school history having defeated No. 6 Houston the previous week, their first win over a top-10 team since 1984. Navy has 13 consecutive home games.
The Line: Memphis by 2.5
The Pick: Navy
Tulane (3-3, 0-2 AAC) at Tulsa (4-2, 1-1 AAC)
3:45 p.m., ESPNU
The Buzz: Navy, Houston and Memphis have generated the most attention on the West side of the league, but not to be overlooked is Tulsa who are quietly off to a solid start. They nearly upset Houston last week as they were driving for a go-ahead score with the game tied and less than two minutes remaining before seeing a turnover get returned by the Cougars for a score. Even so, the Golden Hurricane drove all the way down the field again in less than a minute and were stopped for the would-be tying score on the one-yard line as time expired. Tulsa RB D'Angelo Brewer leads the AAC in rushing (123.7 ypg). Tulane has shown much improvement in the first season under Willie Fritz, matching its 2015 win total halfway through this season. The strength has been their defense as they rank 20th nationally and third in the AAC in total defense (324.0 ypg).
The Line: Tulsa by 10.5
The Pick: Tulsa
East Carolina (2-4, 0-2 AAC) at Cincinnati (3-3, 0-3 AAC)
7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
The Buzz: East Carolina has begun conference play with a pair of losses to UCF and USF. They were scheduled to play Navy last Thursday, but that game was postponed due to flooding in Greenville in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew. The Pirates rank third in the nation in passing offense (378.0 ypg) and 13th in total offense (515.3 ypg). Cincinnati has struggled to an 0-3 start after losing games to Houston, USF and UConn. That's caused some unrest among the UC fanbase, who are tiring of diminishing returns under Tommy Tuberville, currently in his fifth season there. The Bearcats rank 11th out of 12 AAC schools in scoring offense, averaging 23.0 ppg (UConn is last at 20.9 ppg).
The Line: Cincinnati by 1.5
The Pick: ECU
No. 11 Houston (6-1, 3-1 AAC) at SMU (2-4, 0-2 AAC)
7 p.m., ESPN2
The Buzz: Houston looked unstoppable a few weeks ago, but saw their run end against Navy a couple weeks ago and nearly lost this past weekend against Tulsa. The defense, still ranked third in the nation in rushing defense (87.1 ypg) and 10th in total defense (298.7 ypg), have given up 46 and 31 points the past two weeks. SMU, whose two league losses have come against Temple (45-20) and Tulsa (43-40 in OT), ranks second nationally with a whopping 13 interceptions. Two players, safety Jordan Wyatt and cornerback Horace Richardson, have four each.
The Line: Houston by 21
The Pick: Houston
