I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
20% herd immunity
- Thread starter Crazyhole
- Start date
I expect we have or are peaking, Who knows how many have had it though. As for testing, many now getting test do not have any symptoms.
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Stop insulting your boy shook chicken and shucky the racist
Makes sense. We are starting to get a much clearer picture of what he R/0 is and where it drops to 1. Florida should be close to getting there. I'm willing to bet that by the time this is all said and done, Florida's curve will be smack dab in the middle in comparison to other states. Those with the highest population density will have the shortest curve and the rural states will have the longest. Shutdowns will have no relevance in the curve.
Call your shot with numbers and dates or youll just weasel out of it when youre wrong.
Restaurants, theaters, Bars and Gyms will be slow in recovering, and many never will. The damage this has done will persist for a long time. The economy as a whole will bounce back, but the world may look quite a bit different.
I did in the OP, and it looks like it was probably correct. Are you still sticking with 18k deaths in Florida by November?
Glad #s are coming down, but remember testing stations closed over the weekend for the storm. Many of those low/no testing #s would not have been seen yet, but some would have been. Don't be surprised or fooled if there is a 2 to 4 day drop that is larger than you would expect. Death #s may tell you more than new positives over the next couple of days.
Florida tested 32,000 people. Maybe they are going with the trump plan to control the numbers. They had been testing 50k-60k
Your presence, obviously. Crazyhole derives pleasure from threads where you are forced to admit he is correct.
20%, maybe 25% based on 10% of positives being reported. There's some wiggle room there, but in general when a state or country reaches that level the R/0 will drop below 1 and cases will begin dropping. Florida got there last week and the cases are now going to drop exponentially just like new york, which is the best example of the virus spreading unimpeded.
Testing was shut down for the Storm of the week, Should have reopened Yesterday or today.
Cuomo authorizes New York schools to reopen amid coronavirus pandemic
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Friday that schools across the state are "authorized to open" for the 2020 school year amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Cuomo is opening back up. All schools good for in-person classes
Are you basing this on new social norms - distancing and masks? The guy behind the MIT model says that herd immunity effects appear to kick in between 10-35% prevelance. But that's contingent on our "new normal" levels of distance. If everything returned to Feb levels of contact then HIT is going to jump back to that ~70% or whatever it is.
Basing it on unimpeded spread like we saw in New York. The R/0 is way lower than we thought. New normals and masking don't affect the level of contagion for the virus itself. It had opportunity to spread in the wild and obviously it wasn't as high as predicted.
Yeah, you just made up a bunch of shit and called the end of the pandemic based on what you imagined to be true.
You're doing this wrong.
The R0 is not way lower than we thought. R0 is the reproductive number absent mitigation. Rt is the real time number that changes based on BOTH behavior and the ratio of susceptible to immune individuals.
So if you hold behavior constant, but decrease the number of susceptible individuals, then Rt goes down. So imagine two communities with identical population densities and behavior. One has a 20% infection rate and one has a 5% infection rate. The Rt for the 20% infected group will be LOWER than then the 5% group with identical behavior.
That's what you're seeing. A hard hit area that's taking the virus seriously has an easier time controlling spread than an equivalent area not yet hit hard.
Really recommend the link below if you want to dig into this (via the guy behind the "MIT" model). He's saying that we're seeing herd immunity benefits between 10-35% infection rates. But he's quick to point out that is contingent on distancing. Relieve the distancing and that shoots back up to the ~70%.
Estimating True Infections
We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally
covid19-projections.com
So basically what you're saying is that I'm right and herd immunity happens around 20%.You're doing this wrong.
The R0 is not way lower than we thought. R0 is the reproductive number absent mitigation. Rt is the real time number that changes based on BOTH behavior and the ratio of susceptible to immune individuals.
So if you hold behavior constant, but decrease the number of susceptible individuals, then Rt goes down. So imagine two communities with identical population densities and behavior. One has a 20% infection rate and one has a 5% infection rate. The Rt for the 20% infected group will be LOWER than then the 5% group with identical behavior.
That's what you're seeing. A hard hit area that's taking the virus seriously has an easier time controlling spread than an equivalent area not yet hit hard.
Really recommend the link below if you want to dig into this (via the guy behind the "MIT" model). He's saying that we're seeing herd immunity benefits between 10-35% infection rates. But he's quick to point out that is contingent on distancing. Relieve the distancing and that shoots back up to the ~70%.
Estimating True Infections
We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globallycovid19-projections.com
I feel like what you are saying is akin to saying that the R0 of HIV would be much higher if we all go have unprotected sex with dozens of people every day. Yeah, obviously that is true but its not a real life scenario. What I'm saying is that based on our lifetyles, once 20% of people in a community, state, etc get this the numbers will flatten and the R0 will be below 1.
The reason these epidemic curves have long tails is because Rt is getting closer and closer to 1.0 over time, with zero intervention, because of immunity. It's not a hard stop where one day Rt is 3 and the next day it 1.0. It decays over time.
You're last sentence is absolutely correct based on CURRENT behavior. But that means no crowds at sporting events. No concerts. No night life. Wearing masks everywhere. Schools at ~1/2 capacity as large chunks go virtual.
Back in April/May we achieved an Rt of 1.0 in Florida. Cases were flat for a long time. Mobility was way down. Schools were closed. Restaurants were closed. By your same logic, did we achieve "herd immunity" at ~3% infection rates because Rt was 1.0?
This is only herd immunity if the behavior changes are permanent. In your HIV analogy. If safe sex practices become part of the "new normal" then sure - you've permanently altered the curve. Are we really never going to have large crowds again?
I'm basing the entire supposition on what happened in New York. Generally speaking, lifestyles didn't dramatically change and once they got to 20-25% cases leveled out. Florida basically went back to normal and once they got to that same 20-25% the same thing is happening. As far as the large crowd events, I look at it this way: 1 infected person in a crowd of 50 is no different than 100 infected people in a crowd of 5000. Its not like when you get a crowd of 5000 together they alter their behavior in how close they get to the people around them. Sure, you'll have a larger net number of infections but proportionally it will be the same.
The math doesnt work. The reason cases are down is because testing has plummeted. NY is still testing massive amounts so their low new cases look legit but Florida has backed off of testing. Its visible in their reporting.
That knife cuts both ways. If new york is testing through the roof, it lends more credence to my premise.
New York isn't anywhere close to normal. Cell phone mobility data is still at -34% normal. There have been no crowds. Schools have not been meeting at capacity.
Florida never went back to normal. Mobility data peaked at -25%. Schools were not in session. Huge chunks of people are working from home. No crowds.
I do not understand your crowds theory. The reproductive number is a function of the opportunities created to spread the virus. Fewer contacts = fewer opportunities. But overall, the average number of contacts that could result in infection is WAY down from February levels, and widespread masking and general distancing is reducing the likelihood that an encounter results in a new infection.
The sum total of all of these behavioral changes results in herd immunity effects kicking in around these ~20% levels by reducing Rt below 1.0. In the same sense that lockdown/closures reduced Rt to below 1.0 when we were at ~2% infection rates. It's exactly the same thing, just at two points on the curve.
The higher the attack rate, the less mitigation that you need to keep Rt at 1.0 or below. So it gets easier over time. Maybe 20% just happens to be the sweet spot where our willingness to distance balances the infectiousness of the virus.
HIV was 95% a gay male issue. It was never really an issue in the heterosexual population. It was really rare for a straight person or female to get it.
Louie Gohmert is COVID-19-free, and he credits hydroxychloroquine - Washington Examiner
Rep. Louie Gohmert has recovered from the coronavirus and plans to donate plasma in the coming days, he told the Washington Examiner.“I’m feeling really well, really great, actually,” the Texas Republican said. Gohmert tested positive for the coronavirus on July 29 after taking a test at the...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Very happy that his symptoms were so mild.
Recently Matthew McConaughey interviewed Dr. Fauci. At the 12:14 mark of this video, Fauci was asked about Crazy's beloved herd immunity theory and he trashed it as hard and as fast as anything I've heard him answer.
Didn't sound like he refuted anything I've been saying. We are all going to get this eventually, the only thing we can affect is the timeline. 10 million deaths in a year just sounds worse than 10 million deaths over 10 years.
Pandemic analyst finds herd immunity could be slowing COVID spread — yet Dr. Fauci still warns against it | Blaze Media
A new study finds that herd immunity could be achieved at a much lower percentage than previously believed
www.theblaze.com
Since we are talking about Fauci, good time to remind everyone that he said there’s no reason why people can’t vote in person this November
Just remember that when the bed wetting lefties scream and yell about needing universal mail in voting and throw around conspiracy theories
Just remember that when the bed wetting lefties scream and yell about needing universal mail in voting and throw around conspiracy theories
