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20% herd immunity

UCFKnight85 said:
Since we are talking about Fauci, good time to remind everyone that he said there’s no reason why people can’t vote in person this November

Just remember that when the bed wetting lefties scream and yell about needing universal mail in voting and throw around conspiracy theories
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He also said as long as people are wearing masks, distancing, and the polls arent overly crowded.
 
Crazyhole said:
Didn't sound like he refuted anything I've been saying. We are all going to get this eventually, the only thing we can affect is the timeline. 10 million deaths in a year just sounds worse than 10 million deaths over 10 years.
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There is going to be a vaccine out in a matter of months. We arent all going to get this.
 
goodknightfl said:
The vast majority will get it, His point is in the long run, the lockdowns don't change very much, just extend the pain.
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The only people that won't get it will die from something else first. Viruses don't go away. Polio is still around, smallpox is still around. The vaccines for both just reduced the spread and prevalence but no more than the the natural spread would have done, they just accelerated the immunity in a safer way.
 
Bump. Any explanations outside of herd immunity taking effect on why cases are dropping as predicted? Major lifestyle changes going on in florida?
 
UCFKnight85 said:
Since we are talking about Fauci, good time to remind everyone that he said there’s no reason why people can’t vote in person this November

Just remember that when the bed wetting lefties scream and yell about needing universal mail in voting and throw around conspiracy theories
Click to expand...
The main issue with in person voting isn’t necessarily the safety of the voter. It’s getting enough poll workers willing to support and getting enough locations. The number of voting precincts for the primaries was scaled way back. Moving more people to mail in (which existed already before it became the new GOP talking point) may be necessary to avoid people waiting in lines into the night.
 
Crazyhole said:
Bump. Any explanations outside of herd immunity taking effect on why cases are dropping as predicted? Major lifestyle changes going on in florida?
Click to expand...
Florida shut down bars and there are now mask mandates in public places. Could also be that the people who take no precautions and were the first to pack public places already got it and those being more careful are still waiting it out. Big key will be to keep the cases dropping after opening schools.
 
Crazyhole said:
Immunity from the vaccine won't last any longer than from natural infection.
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This is patently false. The immune response from natural infection varies based on the severity of the infection. The more severe the response, the more durable the antibodies. They have already said that infection provides a minimum of 3 months of immunity against future infection. That would be from a mild infection case. There is also T cell immunity which can provide protection even when antibodies are no longer present. The virus has been around for 8 months so we should be seeing reinfections now if immunity is that fleeting.
 
hemightbejeremy said:
This is patently false. The immune response from natural infection varies based on the severity of the infection. The more severe the response, the more durable the antibodies. They have already said that infection provides a minimum of 3 months of immunity against future infection. That would be from a mild infection case. There is also T cell immunity which can provide protection even when antibodies are no longer present. The virus has been around for 8 months so we should be seeing reinfections now if immunity is that fleeting.
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Not sure what you're saying here. Will immunity from the vaccine last longer than from natural infection?
 
hemightbejeremy said:
The main issue with in person voting isn’t necessarily the safety of the voter. It’s getting enough poll workers willing to support and getting enough locations. The number of voting precincts for the primaries was scaled way back. Moving more people to mail in (which existed already before it became the new GOP talking point) may be necessary to avoid people waiting in lines into the night.
Click to expand...

lol please get out of here with this. If Publix can host hundreds of customers per day since March then poll workers can work safely for one day.
 
Voting is so important that we value it slightly behind your local Publix bagger who puts your beer and donuts in a bag for you!
 
UCFKnight85 said:
Voting is so important that we value it slightly behind your local Publix bagger who puts your beer and donuts in a bag for you!
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People have days, weeks, in some cases even months to cast their vote. If voting really is a sacred right and responsibility I would think that should be enough time to prioritize it.
 
Crazyhole said:
I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
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It's based largely on the new 'theory' of how Sweden's has this massive 'drop off.'

It's related to the emerging evidence that any Coronavirus and T-cell backed immunity -- including various, common colds -- are providing 'resistance' against most SARS-CoV -- including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) -- infections.

I.e., 20% SARS-CoV-2 =~ 90% overall Coronavirus T-cells distribution

Sweden has had death rates similar to 'shutdown' European nations, especially the UK, but without the massive impact to their economies.

The theory includes that keeping 'human interaction up' kept more people dealing with 'resistance' to all coronaviruses in general. This also explains why 'pockets' of 'outbreaks' occurred in high density populations, even with the lockdown. Especially in the high density concentrations of the UK and US.

I.e., families repeatedly 'passed' it to each other, in close proximity, while 'strangers' weren't 'as close,' and received 'lower amounts' ... ones 'easier to fight.'

It's like anything else, you get a big dose, replication happens faster. You get a smaller dose, and it's far, far less and your body 'fights' it better -- especially when healthy, and then 'learns' how to fight it.

This is just a 'theory,' and I'm probably butchering it / over-simplifying it. It does fit the 'curves' though.

In Florida's case, it was the mass influx of tourists, often 'close families,' from higher infection states too, especially ones that felt they were 'on vacation' and stopped 'caring' about distancing and 'hygiene.'
 
UCFBS said:
It's based largely on the new 'theory' of how Sweden's has this massive 'drop off.'

It's related to the emerging evidence that any Coronavirus and T-cell backed immunity -- including various, common colds -- are providing 'resistance' against most SARS-CoV -- including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) -- infections.

I.e., 20% SARS-CoV-2 =~ 90% overall Coronavirus T-cells distribution

Sweden has had death rates similar to 'shutdown' European nations, especially the UK, but without the massive impact to their economies.

The theory includes that keeping 'human interaction up' kept more people dealing with 'resistance' to all coronaviruses in general. This also explains why 'pockets' of 'outbreaks' occurred in high density populations, even with the lockdown. Especially in the high density concentrations of the UK and US.

I.e., families repeatedly 'passed' it to each other, in close proximity, while 'strangers' weren't 'as close,' and received 'lower amounts' ... ones 'easier to fight.'

It's like anything else, you get a big dose, replication happens faster. You get a smaller dose, and it's far, far less and your body 'fights' it better -- especially when healthy, and then 'learns' how to fight it.

This is just a 'theory,' and I'm probably butchering it / over-simplifying it. It does fit the 'curves' though.

In Florida's case, it was the mass influx of tourists, often 'close families,' from higher infection states too, especially ones that felt they were 'on vacation' and stopped 'caring' about distancing and 'hygiene.'
Click to expand...
I just based my prediction on math.
 
  • Wow
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Crazyhole said:

How Bad Is Covid Really? (A Swedish Doctor's Perspective) | RealClearPolitics

How Bad Is Covid Really? (A Swedish Doctor's Perspective) | RealClearPolitics
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com
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Funny how Sweden was held up to the board as a shining example of how a country boldly went for the herd immunity award last summer.

And now?

Sweden's hospitals are swamped and the country has four-times the number of new infections than all of their nordic neighbors COMBINED. The government there has made a frantic u-turn with shutdowns and social gathering restrictions to lower their skyrocketing covid numbers.
 
Crazyhole said:
I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
Click to expand...

You are stupid. No way we can achieve this without deaths.
 
ElprofesorJuan said:
You are stupid. No way we can achieve this without deaths.
Click to expand...
Last summer, our Usual Suspects would have said you were a mask-wearing worry-wort while POINTING to Sweden's virus numbers.

And Now? Our Usual Suspects will STILL call you a mask-wearing worry-wort while IGNORING what's going on now in Sweden.
 
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KNIGHTTIME^ said:
Looks like we are clipping at around 1 million cases per week. That is good news that we go ahead and build the immunity and move on.
Click to expand...
I called it. :)
DaShuckster said:
Last summer, our Usual Suspects would have said you were a mask-wearing worry-wort while POINTING to Sweden's virus numbers.

And Now? Our Usual Suspects will STILL call you a mask-wearing worry-wort while IGNORING what's going on now in Sweden.
Click to expand...
 
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