20% herd immunity

Crazyhole

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I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
 

KNIGHTTIME^

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I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
Insiders at Advent Health predicted it peaks in July in Florida.
 
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goodknightfl

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I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
I expect we have or are peaking, Who knows how many have had it though. As for testing, many now getting test do not have any symptoms.
 
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Crazyhole

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Insiders at Advent Health predicted it peaks in July in Florida.
Makes sense. We are starting to get a much clearer picture of what he R/0 is and where it drops to 1. Florida should be close to getting there. I'm willing to bet that by the time this is all said and done, Florida's curve will be smack dab in the middle in comparison to other states. Those with the highest population density will have the shortest curve and the rural states will have the longest. Shutdowns will have no relevance in the curve.
 

fried-chicken

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I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
Call your shot with numbers and dates or youll just weasel out of it when youre wrong.
 

Ucfmikes

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Ran by an upscale restaurant/shopping area in Orlando last night. ALMOST, every single place that I frequented pre-Covid was closed down permanently. Sad. A Employees are probably mostly still unemployed

Croods will be Croods.
 

goodknightfl

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Restaurants, theaters, Bars and Gyms will be slow in recovering, and many never will. The damage this has done will persist for a long time. The economy as a whole will bounce back, but the world may look quite a bit different.
 

Crazyhole

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It would be a shame if FC and his lib friends ghosted this thread after all we've been through together.
 

KNIGHTTIME^

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Florida the last two days is trending way down. Advent Health thought July would be the peak in Florida. Looks accurate
 

goodknightfl

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Glad #s are coming down, but remember testing stations closed over the weekend for the storm. Many of those low/no testing #s would not have been seen yet, but some would have been. Don't be surprised or fooled if there is a 2 to 4 day drop that is larger than you would expect. Death #s may tell you more than new positives over the next couple of days.
 

fried-chicken

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Florida tested 32,000 people. Maybe they are going with the trump plan to control the numbers. They had been testing 50k-60k
 

Crazyhole

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Correct about what? 20% herd immunity?
20%, maybe 25% based on 10% of positives being reported. There's some wiggle room there, but in general when a state or country reaches that level the R/0 will drop below 1 and cases will begin dropping. Florida got there last week and the cases are now going to drop exponentially just like new york, which is the best example of the virus spreading unimpeded.
 

Boosted87

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20%, maybe 25% based on 10% of positives being reported. There's some wiggle room there, but in general when a state or country reaches that level the R/0 will drop below 1 and cases will begin dropping. Florida got there last week and the cases are now going to drop exponentially just like new york, which is the best example of the virus spreading unimpeded.
Are you basing this on new social norms - distancing and masks? The guy behind the MIT model says that herd immunity effects appear to kick in between 10-35% prevelance. But that's contingent on our "new normal" levels of distance. If everything returned to Feb levels of contact then HIT is going to jump back to that ~70% or whatever it is.
 

Crazyhole

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Are you basing this on new social norms - distancing and masks? The guy behind the MIT model says that herd immunity effects appear to kick in between 10-35% prevelance. But that's contingent on our "new normal" levels of distance. If everything returned to Feb levels of contact then HIT is going to jump back to that ~70% or whatever it is.
Basing it on unimpeded spread like we saw in New York. The R/0 is way lower than we thought. New normals and masking don't affect the level of contagion for the virus itself. It had opportunity to spread in the wild and obviously it wasn't as high as predicted.
 

Crazyhole

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I'm calling my shot. Covid needs 20% for herd immunity. With only 1 in 10 people being symptomatic and actually getting tested, Florida will achieve herd immunity this week or next and the number of new cases will begin to decline dramatically.
Is it time for my mea-culpa on this?
 

Boosted87

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Basing it on unimpeded spread like we saw in New York. The R/0 is way lower than we thought. New normals and masking don't affect the level of contagion for the virus itself. It had opportunity to spread in the wild and obviously it wasn't as high as predicted.
You're doing this wrong.

The R0 is not way lower than we thought. R0 is the reproductive number absent mitigation. Rt is the real time number that changes based on BOTH behavior and the ratio of susceptible to immune individuals.

So if you hold behavior constant, but decrease the number of susceptible individuals, then Rt goes down. So imagine two communities with identical population densities and behavior. One has a 20% infection rate and one has a 5% infection rate. The Rt for the 20% infected group will be LOWER than then the 5% group with identical behavior.

That's what you're seeing. A hard hit area that's taking the virus seriously has an easier time controlling spread than an equivalent area not yet hit hard.

Really recommend the link below if you want to dig into this (via the guy behind the "MIT" model). He's saying that we're seeing herd immunity benefits between 10-35% infection rates. But he's quick to point out that is contingent on distancing. Relieve the distancing and that shoots back up to the ~70%.

 

Crazyhole

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You're doing this wrong.

The R0 is not way lower than we thought. R0 is the reproductive number absent mitigation. Rt is the real time number that changes based on BOTH behavior and the ratio of susceptible to immune individuals.

So if you hold behavior constant, but decrease the number of susceptible individuals, then Rt goes down. So imagine two communities with identical population densities and behavior. One has a 20% infection rate and one has a 5% infection rate. The Rt for the 20% infected group will be LOWER than then the 5% group with identical behavior.

That's what you're seeing. A hard hit area that's taking the virus seriously has an easier time controlling spread than an equivalent area not yet hit hard.

Really recommend the link below if you want to dig into this (via the guy behind the "MIT" model). He's saying that we're seeing herd immunity benefits between 10-35% infection rates. But he's quick to point out that is contingent on distancing. Relieve the distancing and that shoots back up to the ~70%.

So basically what you're saying is that I'm right and herd immunity happens around 20%.
 

UCFKnight85

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Andrew Cuomo assured that death would sweep across his state in such incredible fashion that he's earned himself a speaking gig at the DNC Convention.
 
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Crazyhole

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You're so close but yet not.
I feel like what you are saying is akin to saying that the R0 of HIV would be much higher if we all go have unprotected sex with dozens of people every day. Yeah, obviously that is true but its not a real life scenario. What I'm saying is that based on our lifetyles, once 20% of people in a community, state, etc get this the numbers will flatten and the R0 will be below 1.