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LolGDO is up 2.5, savings is down to 2.4, and consumer spending is down to 1.0. On top of that, trade deficits and housing starts are flat. In other words, the money is still here, it isnt going into banks (interest) or savings, its just changing hands.
These arent indicators of recession or inflation, surprisingly. They indicate a movement of money from the stock markets big businesses into small business and possibly commodities.
So you basically just read a headline somewhere, posted it, and have no opinion on it?
Look at the trend in the 10-2 bond spread. We're almost negative. What happens each and every time this spread goes negative?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
No, I'm saying rates are a bigger risk to the economy right now. Historically, 100% of the time when the 10-2 goes negative we have a recession within a year. We're at .33 right now down from over 1 less than a year ago.You surely arent suggesting that all of that money is going into t-bills, are you?
No, I'm saying rates are a bigger risk to the economy right now. Historically, 100% of the time when the 10-2 goes negative we have a recession within a year. We're at .33 right now down from over 1 less than a year ago.
Also, historically when an economy exceeds 100% debt to GDP it leads to inflation. Now you're suggesting we are going to have deflation?
This is all good information and there are patterns we can look at to make predictions but in reality we are in a position that no country in the history of the world has been in. There are no fundamentals left to make an accurate prediction.
There are, you've just chosen to view them as unimportant.
Then where is the money? It didnt disappear. It hasn't gone into t-bills (yet). Foreign holdings are flat.
Gold is down, BTC is down, but inflation is up. CPI is up but spending is down. Interest rates are up but savings is down.
Make sense of that based on historical evidence.
The 1920s.
That money is in the same place it has been for the last few years, sitting in cash reserves and going nowhere.
This recession will lie squarely in the hands of big-business, once again. They refuse to spend their money on new ventures or their employees.
Historically bad price to earning ratio.Explain how we've seen 400% inflation in the stock market while seeing only 25% inflation in CPI since 2009?
$300B in overseas cash was brought back to the US in Q1 alone. A US record.
Things are terrible!
Wonder where that money is going
That money is in the same place it has been for the last few years, sitting in cash reserves and going nowhere.
This recession will lie squarely in the hands of big-business, once again. They refuse to spend their money on new ventures or their employees.
So, wages and investing are just starting to move upwards? After all of the obscene amounts of money that have been dumped into the economy in the last 10 years? After a huge tax benefit that essentially dumped another huge amount of cash into the economy?
They better be going up. It is about damn time they went up. But, we're still in the "we'll see" phase.
It makes sense to me... financials for investors are more important than paying employees or coming up with new ideas.Agreed. Tax breaks get people to spend money. A 900% increase in cash surplus and never broke 3% GDO? That makes no sense, which is my point. There are no market fundamentals left to be able to predict anything
I don't write for market watchDow up 165 on the day and FC trying to grasp at straws