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AAC Championship: Sim Results and Predictions

mr. knightman

Four-Star Recruit
Aug 10, 2021
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indianrivermusiccompany.com
12/2/2022 Tulane Part Deux Edition:


Let's recap the usf game...


(Checks pulse).

Enough of them.

Mooooving on.

So. Tulane. Again...


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Tulane Fun-Facts:

Not typically known for being good at football.

Was a founding member of the SEC. Yep. They left to form the Souther Ivy League/Magnolia Conference which merged into Conference USA in 1995. Some of that early prestige has more weight than you think and they were a dark-horse for Big 12 consideration during the first flirtations in 2016 (Google it). They could be playing themselves into some considerations again. Good sports, good academics, New Orleans...

Tulane's nickname was adopted during the 1920 season, after a song titled "The Rolling Green Wave" was published in the Tulane Hullabaloo in 1920. From 1893 to 1919 the athletic teams of Tulane were officially known as "The Olive and Blue," for the official school colors.

Yulman Stadium is the on-campus venue for football at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana. It currently has a capacity of 30,000 spectators, with 4,500 premium seats in two fan clubs – the Westfeldt Terrace and the Jill H. and Avram A. Glazer Family Club.[2] The stadium's first game and grand opening was the 2014 season's home opener against its former Southern Conference and Southeastern Conference foe Georgia Tech on September 6, 2014.


(that was an easy copy/paste)
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Players to watch for Tulane:

#22 Tyjae Spears - RB, 5'11", 195 pounds, JR. Averaging 83 yards a game, 5.6 yards a carry.

#7 Michael Pratt - QB, 6'3', 220 Pounds, JR. 142 for 213. Perfect 2/3rds(66.67%) of passes are caught.

#10 Shae Wyatt - WR, 6'1", 190 Pounds, SR. Averaging 43 yards a game.

Overall:
Points per game
UCF 35.7 Tulane 34.5

Yards per game
UCF 486.5 Tulane 416.1

Opp points per game
UCF 21.23 Tulane 19.83

RECENT common-opponent score of note:


Tulane 31
UCF 38

(UCF sometimes beats itself...so...common opponent)


***Onto the REAL Beef*** ( or Jerk Chicken over spicy rice and lime-and-pepper brocolli)

Weather forecast at 4:00PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 5:00pm (this early sunset stuff is getting old...)
Temp: 76F
Chance of rain: 80% at kickoff (Bring a poncho...)


TV: ABC


I ran Just 6 CPU simulations this time. I ran 5 of 6 with rain. I also used JRP and Mickey about even at QB. I do believe this is JRP's game though.


Average of 6 simulation results:

UCF 39
Tulane 20

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -10 (Vegas: Tulane -4 1:12PM 12/2/22)

"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 32
Tulane 28

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -4 (Vegas is ok...I matched)

My friend's son Julian's prediction:

UCF 27
Tulane 21

Julian's line of doom: UCF -6 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)



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It would seem your sim sees this as a favorable matchup. Tbh, we should have won first time by 21 if not for poor officiating. Whats the context of the sims this time around?
 
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