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Banks miss Q1 earnings because they are setting aside Billions for loan defaults. Market way up.

Futures way up premarket. Buy buy buy!

The news that UK PM is on his death bed, NY doesn't have enough tests to test people dying at home and that the SBA programs look to be an unmitigated disaster have the markets really hyped up. Get in before it's too late!
 
fried-chicken said:
Futures way up premarket. Buy buy buy!

The news that UK PM is on his death bed, NY doesn't have enough tests to test people dying at home and that the SBA programs look to be an unmitigated disaster have the markets really hyped up. Get in before it's too late!
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Obviously you don’t have any investment experience. I bought into a vanguard fund when stocks were at the lowest point. It cost me $10.81. Now it’s at $11.47. Only one way to go and that’s up. Even if disaster strikes and the market drops, it will bounce back quickly enough to at least make gains.
 
Ucfmikes said:
Obviously you don’t have any investment experience. I bought into a vanguard fund when stocks were at the lowest point. It cost me $10.81. Now it’s at $11.47. Only one way to go and that’s up. Even if disaster strikes and the market drops, it will bounce back quickly enough to at least make gains.
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Why would it bounce back? People aren't working or buying. We don't have a cure so as soon as the economy opens back up we'll get a second surge that can only be beat with another round of social distancing. Right now maybe 2% of the US has antibodies. People are acting like we're going to be taking cruises in September.
 
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fried-chicken said:
Why would it bounce back? People aren't working or buying. We don't have a cure so as soon as the economy opens back up we'll get a second surge that can only be beat with another round of social distancing. Right now maybe 2% of the US has antibodies. People are acting like we're going to be taking cruises in September.
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It will bounce back because most market metrics were good back in February when the dow was over 29000. Those metrics still exist, we just have 1 temporary issue that has caused a short term major selloff. We might go through the same thing next winter but it likely wont be nearly this steep.
 
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fried-chicken said:
Why would it bounce back? People aren't working or buying. We don't have a cure so as soon as the economy opens back up we'll get a second surge that can only be beat with another round of social distancing. Right now maybe 2% of the US has antibodies. People are acting like we're going to be taking cruises in September.
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Doomesday scenario. This isn’t going to go on for years. The Dow has always bounced back eventually. If I was retiring in 6-12 months, I wouldn’t be buying anything. Right now I bought very very low.
 
We havent even started this round of QE on a significant level so it goes to show that there's still faith in the economy.
 
Crazyhole said:
Looks like we're gonna break 24000 today. Back to 2018 levels. Crazy.
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I wonder if Trump is being positive to help the stock market and telling Fauci to not be too negative. It seems to work a bit. Additionally, would this be a bad thing? Giving hope. Being positive. A light at the end of the tunnel.
Not a doomesday scenario
 
Ucfmikes said:
I wonder if Trump is being positive to help the stock market and telling Fauci to not be too negative. It seems to work a bit. Additionally, would this be a bad thing? Giving hope. Being positive. A light at the end of the tunnel.
Not a doomesday scenario
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I'd say so, and no its not a bad thing. We probably should be around 18000, so being 25% higher means a lot of wealth has been preserved. Not sure who is reaping the benefit of that, but its a good thing no matter what.
 
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Crazyhole said:
I'd say so, and no its not a bad thing. We probably should be around 18000, so being 25% higher means a lot of wealth has been preserved. Not sure who is reaping the benefit of that, but its a good thing no matter what.
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It's fake. The wealth is lost people just don't realize it yet.

Optimism is great but reality is better. I feel bad for people investing right now who think we're near the end of the economic impact of this.

You can only rely on trillion dollar spending bumps every couple of weeks for so long. Earnings and unemployment will be the gut check that
 
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fried-chicken said:
It's fake.

Optimism is great but reality is better. I feel bad for people investing right now who think we're near the end of the economic impact of this.
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Nah, with the fed now investing in the market we'll probably reset and the natural low will be in the 30k range. Its forced inflation.
 
fried-chicken said:
It's fake.

Optimism is great but reality is better. I feel bad for people investing right now who think we're near the end of the economic impact of this.
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Nobody knows 100% You’re just guessing. When it was at rock bottom it probably wasn’t a bad idea. I wouldn’t invest right now though
 
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fried-chicken said:
Check commodities. It's not inflation it's a bubble.
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Commodities are staying down because we have a legitimate glut. That's a totally different situation than having a permanent inflated stock market. The only bubble now is the public debt bubble. Thanks FED.
 
Crazyhole said:
Commodities are staying down because we have a legitimate glut. That's a totally different situation than having a permanent inflated stock market. The only bubble now is the public debt bubble. Thanks FED.
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A glut caused by no demand.

No demand caused by social distancing

Social distancing caused by a virus

A virus without a cure.


At some point the loan deferments will end. Companies will default. Landlords will evict. Jobs will lay off. Companies will close. This is actually horrific and it's still our best option. The alternative is the original models that showed 2MM dead.

We need a vaccine and that should be where all of our collective efforts should be going. All this other stuff is a bandaid.
 
fried-chicken said:
A glut caused by no demand.

No demand caused by social distancing

Social distancing caused by a virus

A virus without a cure.


At some point the loan deferments will end. Companies will default. Landlords will evict. Jobs will lay off. Companies will close. This is actually horrific and it's still our best option. The alternative is the original models that showed 2MM dead.

We need a vaccine and that should be where all of our collective efforts should be going. All this other stuff is a bandaid.
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I agree with a lot of that, but a commodity glut creates a far different situation than how inflation affects the stock market. Once we have a glut, there is a physical overstock of (x) and that affects the price. The market is based on speculation and in this case, an overabundance of dollars being poured in. Its very similar to the 1920s boom, except that was based on private debt tied to physical assets and in this case its based on public debt tied to nothing. You can't foreclose on the dollar.
 
UCFKnight85 said:
So where are the noted market experts who assured me the DOW would plunge to 15,000 before it recovered?
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There was no way that was ever going to happen. China would have bought the shit out of the market if it got to 17k. Maybe we would have been better off if we'd let that happen, other than being more beholden to them.
 
At the end of the day the economy runs on demand. This is the problem with a Covid economy. Demand is shattered and it's not all the government doing it so the government can't fix it on their own.

Look at the city of Orlando since this is a UCF board. An economy that runs on tourism as it's backbone.

What tourism company feels good about their numbers in 2020 in Orlando? Even if 50% of people who are high risk resist traveling it's enough to sink many companies and increase unemployment. This idea that we just "open" ignores that people are still nervous about catching this. Workers don't want to be at risk. Consumers don't want to be at risk. The very moment that we see covid 19 numbers spike back up after the economy is "reopened" the house of cards crumbles as people realize this problem isn't solved.
 
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fried-chicken said:
At the end of the day the economy runs on demand. This is the problem with a Covid economy. Demand is shattered and it's not all the government doing it so the government can't fix it on their own.

Look at the city of Orlando since this is a UCF board. An economy that runs on tourism as it's backbone.

What tourism company feels good about their numbers in 2020 in Orlando? Even if 50% of people who are high risk resist traveling it's enough to sink many companies and increase unemployment. This idea that we just "open" ignores that people are still nervous about catching this. Workers don't want to be at risk. Consumers don't want to be at risk. The very moment that we see covid 19 numbers spike back up after the economy is "reopened" the house of cards crumbles as people realize this problem isn't solved.
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You are looking at this through the prism of 2002 market fundamentals. In 2020, we have gone full blown new-keynesian monetary policy. They'll keep printing money until the entire system collapses and we have a true reset. Until that time, 27k is the new 16k.
 
It will definitely recover back to 29k once unemployment quadruples, we run a 5 trillion deficit, and cruise and travel industries go under.
 
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Meanwhile south korea has seen unemployment increase only 30%, despite having a much higher population density and being significantly closer to the source of the outbreak.

It must be nice to not have an utter moron for a leader.
 
Crazyhole said:
You are looking at this through the prism of 2002 market fundamentals. In 2020, we have gone full blown new-keynesian monetary policy. They'll keep printing money until the entire system collapses and we have a true reset. Until that time, 27k is the new 16k.
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No, it's just that this collapse has happened so fast we haven't had time to observe it yet. When the actual results start flowing in things are going to get bad.

It's like when you get hit in the balls. It takes awhile for the pain to reach your gut. The ball hit hurts but it's nothing like that slow build that you know is coming.
 
fried-chicken said:
No, it's just that this collapse has happened so fast we haven't had time to observe it yet. When the actual results start flowing in things are going to get bad.

It's like when you get hit in the balls. It takes awhile for the pain to reach your gut. The ball hit hurts but it's nothing like that slow build that you know is coming.
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No, its like getting sack-tapped and being put on morphine 3 seconds later. The pain won't happen until we find out we are now an opioid addict 2 years later and overdose on heroin.
 
fried-chicken said:
It's in false optimism mode. Quote this in 45 days.
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lol that's what a "start and stop means". smh. You've yet to accurate predict anything about the markets but sure, go ahead and state with confidence that you know the market is wrong.
 
UCFKnight85 said:
lol that's what a "start and stop means". smh. You've yet to accurate predict anything about the markets but sure, go ahead and state with confidence that you know the market is wrong.
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Bro I'm going to be honest with you. No one should take anything you say seriously after you tried to say this was a great time to own a gas station. You have no clue what you're talking about on any subject relating to business. Just do your little abortion shtick and let us handle the stock market thread.
 
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fried-chicken said:
Bro I'm going to be honest with you. No one should take anything you say seriously after you tried to say this was a great time to own a gas station. You have no clue what you're talking about on any subject relating to business. Just do your little abortion shtick and let us handle the stock market thread.
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Nevermind that was @Crazyhole [roll]
 
Ucfmikes said:
I wonder if Trump is being positive to help the stock market and telling Fauci to not be too negative. It seems to work a bit. Additionally, would this be a bad thing? Giving hope. Being positive. A light at the end of the tunnel.
Not a doomesday scenario
Click to expand...

What you described is a sugar high. You can't avoid reality. Whatever that is, good or bad, it will be at our doorstop and the market will adjust.
 
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