Basketball is extremely mediocre

[bbaljones]

So the supposed to be “best Ucf team ever” appears to be an over hyped/vastly overrated mess of a team under Dawkins. Sure the record is 15-4, but let’s be honest this team has looked awful. They have 0 marquee wins. They have 4 bad losses(even though someone will throw out the bs net quadrant thing). They looked absolutely awful vs Tulsa. Tacko, after 4 years, still makes freshman mistakes and looks lost against small teams that press. They have a bad road record. Not making the tournament is a real possibility.


And KenPom makes this team look even worse. KenPom is widely regarded as the best predictor of how well a team is playing. Now some people will say the loss to Memphis isn’t that bad of a loss. Well UCF dropped from 43 in KenPom to 53. That’s a 10 point decrease. They currently sit behind powerhouses Liberty and Lipscomb in KenPom. The offense is at 78 when adjusted and the defense sits at 51. That is a 27 point difference. Ideally good teams have a difference in metrics that range from 1-15. You cannot win games against good opponents if you have a 27 point difference that is the embodiment of being mediocre. Oh and ucf’s opponent em, which is basically how good teams are that you’ve played, is 265. So Ucf is playing tomato cans which is not a good look for bubble teams.


This team has severely regressed as the year has progressed. That’s on Dawkins. He refuses to adjust to the modern game and looks utterly lost against small teams that press. It’s why Stanford rightfully fired him. This was his best shot to make the tournament and he’s blowing it. Also what is his signature win at Ucf? Beating Cincinnati? Beating a bad Illinois team that fired John Groce and had assistants coaching the team? Dawkins finally had expectations on him this year and so far has been extremely mediocre this season.

 

[jestert79]

I feel like every year with both basketball and baseball, it's the same story: hype about how good the team will be, some early success, then we crap out and don't make it to the postseason. Eh it's fine, I don't get too excited watching basketball or baseball anyway...

 

[UCFhonors]

I’m pissed too. Good stats in the OP. I’ll be looking at those metrics more.

But it’s way too early to throw the towel. There lots of season and games left.

 

[HammerB08]

The program doesn't have a great track record at Memphis. The conference tourney is...at Memphis. Not setting up well.

 

[UCFhonors]

I really believe that matchups in basketball are the most important in basketball than in any other sport. Maybe we just dont match up well against Memphis?

That was an embarrassing loss.

But no way we should have been out rebounded 46 to 28. We have them 21 freaking offensive rebounds. Damn they almost had as many offensive board as we had total rebounds.

 

[bbaljones]

I really believe that matchups in basketball are the most important in basketball than in any other sport. Maybe we just dont match up well against Memphis?

That was an embarrassing loss.

But no way we should have been out rebounded 46 to 28. We have them 21 freaking offensive rebounds. Damn they almost had as many offensive board as we had total rebounds.

Dawkins plays 2 bigs, which is stupid, but those bigs can’t rebound.

 

[UCFhonors]

Dawkins plays 2 bigs, which is stupid, but those bigs can’t rebound.

We have 2 bigs on the way. We should get used to twin towers. It’s what we will have for a while most likely.

I not totally sold on the new 2 guard and 3 wingers lineup that so many teams are going to. At the very least, I like doing something different than everyone else

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

We have 2 bigs on the way. We should get used to twin towers. It’s what we will have for a while most likely.

I not totally sold on the new 2 guard and 3 wingers lineup that so many teams are going to. At the very least, I like doing something different than everyone else

One of the bigs shoots a lot of jumpers.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Another name?

 

[bbaljones]

One of the bigs shoots a lot of jumpers.

Well that’s how bigs are now. You want bigs to be able to shoot. You cannot have unathletic 7’6 guys who are soft, put the ball on the floor, and fall on the floor 5 times a game. You cannot win a conference that way and you cannot win the tournament that way. Dawkins hasn’t figured that out and he never will.

 

[Stetson_1883]

I may have misheard, but I caught the trail-end of a CBS announcer saying last night that it's great to be 7'6" but that alone won't get Tacko in the NBA. He went on to say you need athleticism, toughness, IQ and FT shooting etc. I thought it was extremely dead-on.

 

[vroomba]

I may have misheard, but I caught the trail-end of a CBS announcer saying last night that it's great to be 7'6" but that alone won't get Tacko in the NBA. He went on to say you need athleticism, toughness, IQ and FT shooting etc. I thought it was extremely dead-on.

At this rate I don't see how he makes it to the league. He would need to be dominating games regularly to do that, and he isnt.

 

[bbaljones]

I may have misheard, but I caught the trail-end of a CBS announcer saying last night that it's great to be 7'6" but that alone won't get Tacko in the NBA. He went on to say you need athleticism, toughness, IQ and FT shooting etc. I thought it was extremely dead-on.

He’d get eaten alive in Europe let alone the nba. Maybe he can try china.

 

[Wings0fred]

At this rate I don't see how he makes it to the league. He would need to be dominating games regularly to do that, and he isnt.

By height alone, I think it’s possible he gets taken on as a low probability project... I know that the current level of his play and seeming lack of development are issues but he is still relatively new to basketball and may be able to turn it around with the right work ethic. Not likely, but not impossible.

 

[Poolside Knight]

At this rate I don't see how he makes it to the league. He would need to be dominating games regularly to do that, and he isnt.

said it 2 offseasons ago when there was talk of him leaving early , he’ll never get out of the D League. too uncoordinated

 

[muckdawg24]

IIRC, Dawkins didn't recruit Fall, that was a DJ pickup.

 

[bbaljones]

IIRC, Dawkins didn't recruit Fall, that was a DJ pickup.

Yeah and Dawkins has had 3 years to mold him and Tacko still plays like a freshman.

 

[UCFhonors]

I don’t get the Tacko criticism. He is great person. And a unique player. He adds tremendous value to the team and to the school.

I blame our stupid stomp stomp clap clap chant for our free throw problems. It puts Too much pressure on the players. Especially when everyone sighs on a miss.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Well that’s how bigs are now. You want bigs to be able to shoot. You cannot have unathletic 7’6 guys who are soft, put the ball on the floor, and fall on the floor 5 times a game. You cannot win a conference that way and you cannot win the tournament that way. Dawkins hasn’t figured that out and he never will.

Yeah just referencing the multiple bugs on court at same time. You can when at least 1 has an outside shot.

 

[UCFBS]

 

[Poolside Knight]

IIRC, Dawkins didn't recruit Fall, that was a DJ pickup.

Dawkins doesn't recruit anybody, he only goes after transfers

 

[mattropolis]

The program doesn't have a great track record at Memphis. The conference tourney is...at Memphis. Not setting up well.

We're now 5-19 against Memphis, and we just went on a 4 game win streak, so before that streak (and the game yesterday) we are 1-18.

 

[Wings0fred]

We're now 5-19 against Memphis, and we just went on a 4 game win streak, so before that streak (and the game yesterday) we are 1-18.

So...basically, Memphis bball is to UCF bball what UCF football is to Memphis football?

 

[mattropolis]

We're 15-4 and 5-2 in conference play. I wouldn't call that a disaster of a season. We're 10-1 at home, 2-3 on the road, and 3-0 in our neutral site games. I guess we'll just wait and see what the team and staff does. I personally think Tacko needs to be fed the ball a whole lot more than he is now. Probably 75% of our games so far he should be over 20 points but they just don't feed him the rock. I'm always yelling for the screen and roll, and they've probably done it with him like 5 times. He's also got position a lot of times and they just don't throw it up to him. At least go inside-out to keep the defense honest. You've got to ride the kid because it opens up the rest of the floor. As we saw yesterday, if Dawkins is off, we have nothing offensively. Sure, he's a mess at the FT line but it changes the way the other team has to defend.

For example, Memphis had a guy guarding him for the most part (until he fouled out) that was 1/2 foot shorter and 100 pounds lighter. The other guy guarding him was even smaller. We should be dominating the paint. Tacko had 4 shot attempts. He should have had at least 10. Not that this helps but he gets ref treatment like Shaq. He gets hacked and fouled constantly, with no call. Why? Because he doesn't make the other team pay because of his lack of aggression at the rim. If he gets a lot more "And None" (my little affectionate name for when Tacko scores and then goes to the FT line), it will change the whole complexion of the defense on the court.

 

[Stetson_1883]

There's a reason unbeknownst to us as to why Taco doesn't get the ball more. It's not like the coaches are completely retarded. I suspect, He's-Just-Not-That-Good...

 

[Poolside Knight]

I'm not a 'college basketball guy' but I think getting blown out in 2/3 road games is not going to lead to an At Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament. And the last home game took a huge rally to beat Tulsa.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

We're 15-4 and 5-2 in conference play. I wouldn't call that a disaster of a season. We're 10-1 at home, 2-3 on the road, and 3-0 in our neutral site games. I guess we'll just wait and see what the team and staff does. I personally think Tacko needs to be fed the ball a whole lot more than he is now. Probably 75% of our games so far he should be over 20 points but they just don't feed him the rock. I'm always yelling for the screen and roll, and they've probably done it with him like 5 times. He's also got position a lot of times and they just don't throw it up to him. At least go inside-out to keep the defense honest. You've got to ride the kid because it opens up the rest of the floor. As we saw yesterday, if Dawkins is off, we have nothing offensively. Sure, he's a mess at the FT line but it changes the way the other team has to defend.

For example, Memphis had a guy guarding him for the most part (until he fouled out) that was 1/2 foot shorter and 100 pounds lighter. The other guy guarding him was even smaller. We should be dominating the paint. Tacko had 4 shot attempts. He should have had at least 10. Not that this helps but he gets ref treatment like Shaq. He gets hacked and fouled constantly, with no call. Why? Because he doesn't make the other team pay because of his lack of aggression at the rim. If he gets a lot more "And None" (my little affectionate name for when Tacko scores and then goes to the FT line), it will change the whole complexion of the defense on the court.

Tacko either has ball hit his hands and go out of bounds, drops ball and defenders grab it or knocked from his hands a lot. Add into that he doesn’t shoot free throws well and you see why he doesn’t get fed ball. If he would just catch ball , turn around and dunk he’d be hard to stop. He just doesn’t do it enough.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I'm not a 'college basketball guy' but I think getting blown out in 2/3 road games is not going to lead to an At Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament. And the last home game took a huge rally to beat Tulsa.

You’d be surprised at how little losing on the road hurts. UCF dropped from 36 to 40 on NET which is likely around a 10 seed. Need to basically win all the home games going forward and at least split the road games.

 

[goodknightfl]

One step away from the NCAA's, one giant leap towards the NIT.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I'm not a 'college basketball guy' but I think getting blown out in 2/3 road games is not going to lead to an At Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament. And the last home game took a huge rally to beat Tulsa.

What was the other road blowout? The Wichita State game that was a 1 point game with under 3 to go and 4 point game with 55 seconds left? Memphis was the only actual blowout.

 

[Gwoz]

They play 6 games vs. the top four teams in conference. 3 on road and 3 at home. They have to finish at least .500 in those games. Otherwise they finish in 5th place. Easiest path is winning at home against Memphis, Cincinnati, and Houston or on the road against Temple.

Also just to compare remaining schedules Temple, Memphis, USF, and SMU all have at least two games against the three worst teams in the standings (Wichita st, Tulane, ecu) . Memphis has three games. UCF has none.

 

[Poolside Knight]

What was the other road blowout? The Wichita State game that was a 1 point game with under 3 to go and 4 point game with 55 seconds left? Memphis was the only actual blowout.

brain fart on the Wichita St margin

but either way this team doesn't pass the eye test. Is everyone really that confident with this group? and is this under the assumption that the AAC is a 4 bid league? On paper USF was a gimme pre season but that is not looking like the case anymore

 

[mattropolis]

I’m not comfortable. We can play great but we also are underwhelming for long stretches. For as much as BJ scores, he seems out-of-sync with our offense. I think he is best playing PG. I don’t know why we moved him to the 2, so that Allen can start there. Not ripping on Allen...he’s ok but BJ just looks lost out there most of the time. I feel like he’s the type of player that gets more confidence as he runs the team. Just my opinion.

 

[bluechip12]

The team hasn’t been great, but if you told me prior to the season that we’d be 15-4 at this point, I’d take it. There’s a lot of variance in college basketball games (with the short halves and short 3-point line). Every team gets losses.

 

[Central Floridave]

"I blame are stupid stomp stomp clap clap chant for our free throw problems. It puts Too much pressure on the players. Especially when everyone sighs on a miss."

^ this dude is smart. I agree 100 percent. We need to get that firm-buzzle dude to talk to Danny White about that.

 

[Flem3000]

I’m not comfortable. We can play great but we also are underwhelming for long stretches. For as much as BJ scores, he seems out-of-sync with our offense. I think he is best playing PG. I don’t know why we moved him to the 2, so that Allen can start there. Not ripping on Allen...he’s ok but BJ just looks lost out there most of the time. I feel like he’s the type of player that gets more confidence as he runs the team. Just my opinion.

You don't have your best player bringing up the ball each possession, waste too much energy. Allen is shooting 50% from 3. We lost at Memphis because Dawkins didn't show up. Memphis will keep getting better as their freshman play more together. Wichita State is a tough place to play. We are one game out of 1st place and have the most talent ever wearing a UCF basketball uniform. If you all want basketball great buy tickets and go to games. Do you expect us to get great high school recruits when they take a visit and 65% of the seats are empty?

 

[vroomba]

I don’t get the Tacko criticism. He is great person. And a unique player. He adds tremendous value to the team and to school.

I blame are stupid stomp stomp clap clap chant for our free throw problems. It puts Too much pressure on the players. Especially when everyone sighs on a miss.

I don't think the criticism is unjustified in relation to his on the court play based on his potential. Nobody is questioning his character, and he represents UCF as a student athlete tremendously. The criticism is based on the viewpoint that the team isn't living up to its potential i.e. having upperclassmen and experienced BJ, Aubrey, and Tacko yet mysteriously having the wheels fall off at times. 15-4 isn't bad I won't argue, but it does make me anxious going into conference play and losing 2 games in the fashion we did.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

You don't have your best player bringing up the ball each possession, waste too much energy. Allen is shooting 50% from 3. We lost at Memphis because Dawkins didn't show up. Memphis will keep getting better as their freshman play more together. Wichita State is a tough place to play. We are one game out of 1st place and have the most talent ever wearing a UCF basketball uniform. If you all want basketball great buy tickets and go to games. Do you expect us to get great high school recruits when they take a visit and 65% of the seats are empty?

A lot of teams have best player bring ball up. Most of the time he just walks without any resistance. I’m assuming Dawkins is preparing for next year with this switch. They alternate but Allen usually starts off at 1.

 

[UCFhonors]

Dawkins doesn't recruit anybody, he only goes after transfers

Myles Douglas and Caesar DeJesus. Both are very good players. But when you can a 5* transfer, you do it.

 

[UCFhonors]

You’d be surprised at how little losing on the road hurts. UCF dropped from 36 to 40 on NET which is likely around a 10 seed. Need to basically win all the home games going forward and at least split the road games.

I’m surprised by how much we dropped for losing to a Q1 away. The MOV obviously is weighted pretty heavy. Memphis only dropped like 1 place for losing to Temple on the road - a Q1 game.