ADVERTISEMENT

BYU @ UCF: 3:30pm ESPN

Opening Line: UCF -1.5

Blake Schuster: BYU +1.5

Um. Sure? I don’t understand this line. The Cougars should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Mitchell Northam: BYU +1.5

I know UCF is at home, but what exactly has it done to earn points against an undefeated BYU team?

Christian D’Andrea: BYU +1.5

I’m sick of betting against the Cougars, who keep grinding out wins against good, but not great, teams. And UCF is… alright.

Michelle Martinelli: BYU +1.5

Why four-loss UCF is favored against undefeated BYU is beyond me. The Knights have a better offense on paper, and it’s more well-rounded than BYU’s. Give me the Cougars.

Tyler Nettuno: BYU +1.5

The Cougars may not be quite as good as the unbeaten record would tell you, but there’s just not much about this Knights team that I find compelling at the moment. This is a weird spot for BYU to be an underdog.

from this link: https://ftw.usatoday.com/2024/10/co...ek-9-oregon-illinois-notre-dame-navy-michigan
 

UCF +1 vs. BYU​

The 7-0 Cougars have to be toward the top of the list of 2024 college football surprises in a season that has had many.

With that said, I’m not fully buying into this BYU team that has benefited from as much turnover luck as any team in the country.

It’s gone 3-0 in one-possession games and probably should’ve lost at home against a beat-up Oklahoma State team last week, especially if Garret Rangel and Ollie Gordon II don’t get hurt.


Even the blowout wins on the surface were extremely misleading with the two most obvious examples coming against Arizona and Kansas State.

The Cougars won those games by a combined 52 points despite being outgained, 656-630, thanks to a +6 turnover margin, 1-for-7 opponent fourth-down conversion rate and multiple non-offensive scores.

That’s simply not sustainable.

Speaking of unsustainable, quarterback Jake Retzlaff continues to put the ball in harm’s way too frequently, which will eventually come back to bite him harder than it has to date for an offense that grades out below the national average in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate.

However, the biggest mismatch for me comes on the other side of the ball.

UCF features one of the best rushing attacks in the country (top five in both EPA and Success Rate), which should cause major problems for a BYU defense that has really struggled to defend opposing ground games.

That’s especially true when it comes to opponents with mobile quarterbacks, which the Knights certainly have with new starter Jacurri Brown, who ran for 154 yards last week against Iowa State.


He and RJ Harvey should pose major problems for a BYU defense that really struggles to set the edge.

I was really impressed with UCF’s effort in Ames last week in a game it arguably should have won.

Looking back, its three losses prior to that have aged much better than they looked at the time with Florida, Colorado and Cincinnati all trending up.

And keep in mind those all came before UCF made the official quarterback change, which I think makes this team much more dangerous.

Give me the Knights in a coin-flip in the Bounce House, where they have historically thrived in these exact spots.

from Link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ot...s-indiana-illinois-vs-oregon-more/ar-AA1sOE8a
 
BYU will trot out a bunch of 23 year olds that will knock
Us off both lines. Our skill guys are better but doesn’t matter when lines are obliterated by older guys.
 
I've watched BYU twice now. Their defense is really good. Fast and aggressive. I remember they have a linebacker that is all over the place. You want to hate them, but they just good and win games. I read all of this and am amazed that UCF is favored in this game like those other commentaries are above. But, like you said, why they play the game.

Prognosticators are often wrong. Look at Utah...preseason #1 in conference to in the dumps.

Some of you probably want us to lose out, but I'm the opposite. I'm going to support my team.

UCF needs to win 3 out the 5 to become bowl eligible.

Per ESPN Matchup Predictor (percentage to win):

BYU 45.7 UCF 54.3
Arizona 23.4 UCF 76.6
Ariz-State 57.0 UCF 43.0
West Virg 49.1 UCF 50.9
Utah 34.6 UCF 65.4

Best cast scenario we win out. Worst case we lose out.

It starts on Saturday.

Go Knights!
 
I've watched BYU twice now. Their defense is really good. Fast and aggressive. I remember they have a linebacker that is all over the place. You want to hate them, but they just good and win games. I read all of this and am amazed that UCF is favored in this game like those other commentaries are above. But, like you said, why they play the game.

Prognosticators are often wrong. Look at Utah...preseason #1 in conference to in the dumps.

Some of you probably want us to lose out, but I'm the opposite. I'm going to support my team.

UCF needs to win 3 out the 5 to become bowl eligible.

Per ESPN Matchup Predictor (percentage to win):

BYU 45.7 UCF 54.3
Arizona 23.4 UCF 76.6
Ariz-State 57.0 UCF 43.0
West Virg 49.1 UCF 50.9
Utah 34.6 UCF 65.4

Best cast scenario we win out. Worst case we lose out.

It starts on Saturday.

Go Knights!
5 wins will get a few teams a bowl game now. 12 teams in CFP instead of 4. Probably 8-10 teams with 5 wins will make a bowl.
 

"UCF has one last chance to avoid going 0-for-October for a second straight football season."​

Chris Boyle: BYU 33, UCF 17​

The opening betting line (BYU -1) probably raised a few eyebrows, considering the differing trajectories of these teams. Last week's results likely influenced that: BYU needed last-minute heroics to avoid an upset loss to Oklahoma State, while UCF endured last-minute heartbreak to come up just short of an upset win against Iowa State.

But BYU's defense is among the best in the country (13th in yards per play allowed, tied for sixth with 12 interceptions) and quarterback Jake Retzlaff possesses the sort of dual-threat dynamism that has given the Knights fits all year.

One other aspect: BYU's crowd travels extremely well. Even on homecoming, expect plenty of blue mixed in among the black and gold throughout the Bounce House's bleachers.

Chris Vinel: BYU 36, UCF 24​

BYU has won seven in a row. UCF has lost four straight. Because the Big 12 tends to cannibalize itself, odds are, neither of those streaks survive much longer.

But they will extend one more week.

The Cougars have put up at least 34 points in six of their seven games, including the last five. The Knights allowed 38 to Iowa State a week ago, and though they scored 35 themselves, they needed a pick-six and another INT returned to the 1-yard line to do it.

Ken Willis: BYU 34, UCF 23​

Does the Knights' close loss at Iowa State send a positive signal for late-season hopes? Finding some offense can't hurt the cause.

But if the Knights are gonna start winning again and maybe get to six wins and a bonus bowl game, it'll have to start next week against Arizona.

 
"Losing your senior starting QB to injury "

I remember reading a preseason article stating that if Cam Rising got hurt there was no viable backup qb. Let's hope that rings true for the Black Friday game!!!
 
Just checked ticketmaster seeing what the demand is for this game and I see a ton of resale tix avail. I didn't count but guessing maybe 20 percent available. This game looks like it will not be a full stadium. Thank YOU for all who gave up on our team. I will now be able to improve my nose bleed seats to better ones. Appreciate it.

Go Knights, Beat BYU!!
 
Just checked ticketmaster seeing what the demand is for this game and I see a ton of resale tix avail. I didn't count but guessing maybe 20 percent available. This game looks like it will not be a full stadium. Thank YOU for all who gave up on our team. I will now be able to improve my nose bleed seats to better ones. Appreciate it.

Go Knights, Beat BYU!!
BYU travels well on a normal season, with their current ranking/situation expect a lot of BYU fans.
 
BYU travels well on a normal season, with their current ranking/situation expect a lot of BYU fans.
It’s a nation wide cult. Most of them are in Utah, but they have spies and dudes on bikes everywhere.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT