CDC chief: Only 1 in 10 cases diagnosed.

Discussion in 'UCF Fan Forum' started by PhDee, Jun 25, 2020.

  1. PhDee

    PhDee Five-Star Recruit
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    Latest case count is 2,426,700 and death count is 122,400. If we believe the death counts are accurate (they should be pretty accurate, but this is a fair debate point) then the true cases are 24,267,000 which means the true death rate is 122,400/24,267,000=.5%. Or about 1 out of every 200 hundred infections leads to death. (Seasonal flu is 1 out of 1,000)

    CDC chief also says those with existing conditions like kidney disease, lung disease, serious heart conditions, sickle cell, diabetes, and obesity are at higher risk. Imagine out of a random sample of 200 Americans, how many do you think have one of those conditions? From these numbers, someone may conclude it’s actually more so the underlying conditions that are contributing to death rather than the virus. If these numbers are correct, it seems an average healthy person is virtually immune.

    What do you now think about the risks? Does this change your views?
     
    1 PhDee, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
  2. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    Something I learned a long time ago is you can't convince anybody of anything they don't already believe.

    You can present a thousand peer reviewed journal articles all finding that Americans need 150 minutes of moderate intensity exercise per week but the ones who don't believe it will never change their minds.
     
    2 Knight Strength, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
  3. Knightro20

    Knightro20 Two-Star Recruit
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    I think even using those numbers .5% is a misleading death rate because many of the cases are still active and could result in either death or survival. Also there’s been a lot of unexplained pneumonia or other deaths that are almost assuredly related to COVID that aren’t factored into the death count. I’d guess it’s really more like .75-1% but heavily skewed toward the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Either way though I’m still going to be careful because I wouldn’t want to give it to someone and you never know who might have undiagnosed conditions or something that makes them more at risk.
     
    3 Knightro20, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
  4. Finance2000Knight

    Finance2000Knight Four-Star Recruit
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  5. Finance2000Knight

    Finance2000Knight Four-Star Recruit
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    I think these numbers are very important to know as the media would make you believe that it is a death sentence. My digging through state health data led me to this conclusion awhile back. It hurts the elderly the most and was show in the nursing home deaths attributing close to 50% of deaths. My thing with those numbers is how sick were all those people who died in nursing homes? Would they likely died within a few months anyways? Not being callous but that very well would skew the numbers also. The Italian data shows that the deaths were overwhelming people who had more than one issue going on. That is the problem with stats, you can make them say whatever you want. Figure lie and liars figure. I think being cautious is a smart thing to do, like if we have football games wearing masks in a crowd that large would be a good idea. But just banning things and not allowing a choice to attend or do things is the issue at this point.

    just my two cents
     
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  6. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    UV lightbulbs are likely effective at killing the virus (this is well researched with viruses in general). I knew about door/archway lights but this place also talks about changing all the lightbulbs inside the building. I wonder if stadiums will replace stadium lights.
    https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/are-ultraviolet-sanitizing-lights-safe-for-humans

    Of course it will depend on the safety as well as cost, and magnitude and rank of effect compared to other measures. I've actually had a small UV lamp for my desk for several years and knew the claims but never looked into the level of evidence for their efficacy. It's an idea that seems to be a little more "ready" for implementation than I knew.
     
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  7. SCKnight

    SCKnight Golden Knight
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    There is so much different information out there. This is an interesting article looking at how data is reported and how it may be being misread. Talks a bit about both sides.

    According to this look at the date and forecasting the death rate from infection is currently .31 and forecast to go down to .24 not taking into account the things that make you more at risk. This is a really great read and it does not seem that the author has an agenda.
    \



    For some reason refuses to let me post this article in any format

    medium.com/analyticaper/covid-19-what-the-data-tells-us-3a08e42ee367

    add a https:// to the front of that
     
    7 SCKnight, Jun 26, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2020
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  8. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    What website is it on?
     
  9. Lord Christopher

    Lord Christopher Five-Star Recruit
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    I don't know how you can look at the number of deaths and take them to serious. Especially when hospitals all over the country are recording deaths as Covid when they should be other things. My understanding is that hospitals are getting additional funding for every Covid death reported. If this is true, then the US is over stating the true deaths from Covid by the thousands. For example, how come nobody has died from the flu or common cold in the last 6 months? Anyway, my point is, I don't think anybody really knows for sure the exact death rate. One thing I did learn in my statistics class was statistics don't lie but liars us statistics.
     
  10. SCKnight

    SCKnight Golden Knight
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    I saw one article that doctors in Italy are seeing that the virus is mutating in younger victims and the strains are becoming less deadly. The big problem is that I don't know who to believe. Conspiracies, political agendas and fear abound.
     
  11. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    Exactly my perspective. My approach is to continue to keep being smart but also don't imprison myself. If I really want to get out of the house I will go out to eat. But try to be smart by wearing a mask, washing my hands, being aware of what I touch, how close I am to others, etc.
     
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  12. KnightVision82

    KnightVision82 Diamond Knight
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    General health tips for every year: eat your fruits and vegetables, stay away from vaping and over eating especially at buffets (2 popular fades), drink responsibly and exercise. After that live life to the fullest by being smart and courteous to others (avoid conflict).

    This too (Covid 19) shall pass! In the meantime wear your mask in crowds.
    https://news.yahoo.com/astrazeneca-moderna-most-advanced-covid-133850478.html
    Stock tip?
     
  13. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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  14. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    Your theory make sense on the surface until you think about it. Doctors aren’t going to risk their careers so that a hospital can defraud the government. The excess deaths in hotspots outpaces the reported Covid deaths and other countries like UK that had similar earlier responses have reported far more deaths than US per capita (UK For example is at 63% more deaths per capita). Even a country like Sweden that is far less densely populated than the US and has absolutely no reason to fudge numbers has more deaths reported per capita than the US.

    One study has shown that deaths will likely be revised up by tens of thousands once all the dust settles due to undercounts on the first months of the virus because of inadequate testing.

    There have actually been influenza deaths reported but they are down because everybody have been taking precautions for the coronavirus and those precautions prevent the spread of influenza as well (logically they would). We also have testing for influenza and the symptoms are different.
     
  15. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    Very good post comparing the US to other countries. I want to add that laws, regulations, and budgeting often allow for interpretation. Doctors and hospitals would be irresponsible to not take as much money as they can. Just like my CPA. Plus fraud does happen. Still, you're probably right that the total number of cases will go up because of the first few months. That will outweigh the fraud.
     
  16. Lord Christopher

    Lord Christopher Five-Star Recruit
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    Which first few months, Oct-Dec or Jan-Mar?
     
  17. DrPhillipsKnight

    DrPhillipsKnight Bronze Knight
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    Good info in this read. Best of all, no one resulting to personal attacks
     
  18. KnightVision82

    KnightVision82 Diamond Knight
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    Hoping for Orange County daily new cases numbers to be back under 200 by fall. I think some proper gates have been closed to reel in some totally irresponsible behavior without totally shutting everything down. Also, some of these suggestions for ways to attack the virus in public settings like with UV waves are excellent.
     
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  19. ElprofesorJuan

    ElprofesorJuan Two-Star Recruit
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    There is only one problem... There is no more federal funding..Why would Hospitals lie now.Trump has axed funding.Until a new bill is made..Also many pneumonia cases have not been counted..After this year ..I fear we will get true results.
     
  20. Nautiknight

    Nautiknight Bronze Knight
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    If the CDC is right then I feel pretty darn good. Why? Because people are walking around and not dropping like flies.

    When you politicize medicine , a virus and pandemic this is what you get.. you get distrust ,fear, anxiety and so forth. We should never have done that as a nation. When I say we I mean the media and politicians. What we ended up with is confusion , mask wearers and non mask wearers.

    I hope the CDC is right. It means we are all not going to die from COVID.
     
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  21. Poolside Knight

    Poolside Knight Diamond Knight
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    our general population is unhealthy. That's why the habits have to start young where there isn't a stigma of eating healthy. Former First Lady pushed this and also Arnold S. has a program where he has created after school exercise programs for those that aren't part of organized sports.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/us/coronavirus-hospital-houston.html?referringSource=articleShare
     
  22. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    Diet and exercise could be an interesting side of this story. I would guess people who routinely do cardio would tolerate the symptoms of covid19 a little better. Of course Americans dont want to exercise. Much easier to wait for a vaccine and act like we have no control over anything haha.
     
    22 Knight Strength, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  23. Drew-C-F

    Drew-C-F Four-Star Recruit
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    I'm not in the medical profession but my brother is and so is my sister in law. I also have a good friend who's a senior partner in the pharmaceutical industry, a neighbor who's a senior lab technician and one of my tenants is a MD who's clinic does Covid 19 testing every day. All 5 of these people are so disgusted by the "statistics" being reported by the media and the politicizing of this pandemic.
    There's so much erroneous info being shoved down our throats including a lot of double and triple reporting of positive cases for the SAME individual who gets tested 2 or 3 times. They're especially dismayed by what happened in the first couple months when medical institutions shut down their elective procedures but accepted federal funds to remain open with a small a percentage of beds being used and the staff cut way back because they just weren't needed. All 5 of these people work here in FL but I also have a cousin who's a cardio surgeon in Kansas City who echoes these sentiments.
    Don't even get me started on the CDC and how much they despise their early involvement (or lack thereof) in this shit storm. I could go on and on with the stories they share with me but most people will believe what they want to believe and assume the vast majority of the media has no agenda!
     
  24. Poolside Knight

    Poolside Knight Diamond Knight
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    It’s the biggest story in the World, ofcourse it is going to be reported. That is the nature of 24/7 News Channels. It would be worse if we just ignore deaths and become desensitized to it which unfortunately too many Americans are, look at how we react(or don’t react)2 weeks after school children are mowed down during mass shootings
     
    24 Poolside Knight, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  25. BlakNGoldAllDay

    BlakNGoldAllDay Diamond Knight
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    That’s because gun owners want the right to keep their guns and the NRA is powerful and give money to politicians. Stay home and watch on tv. It’s cheaper and safer.
     
  26. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    Lmao I'm about to block this thread. Put it on ignore or whatever.
     
  27. ReturnOf

    ReturnOf Bronze Knight
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    Agreed. Just look at warning lable on packs of cigarettes'. It's literally tells you it will give you Cancer yet millions of people continue to burn grets.
     
  28. DIDIT

    DIDIT Four-Star Recruit
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    This! Almost 1/2 million people die from smoking and over 40,000 people die from second hand smoke every year. No vaccine or mask needed to save these lives. What I find odd is many smokers are the ones telling everyone to stay home and wear masks as they puff away on their patio or balcony.
     
  29. SimpleJack53

    SimpleJack53 Four-Star Recruit
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    My friend is an MD. He echos this. Especially the elective procedures. They caused many layoffs at his hospital.

    Content editor at the news station is a very powerful job in USA.
     
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  30. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    Schrodingers Doctor. Simultaneously inflating Covid19 death counts to defraud the federal government while getting laid off because of the lack of elective procedures due to high Covid19 death counts.
     
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  31. goodknightfl

    goodknightfl Todd's Tiki Bar
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    . death rate for regular flu is .66 or aprox 1 per 175. I expect the actual death count for Corona is more like 1 per 100. I agree the risk is small for 80% of the population. Moderate for another 10% and pretty high for 10%. We need to go all in to protect the 10%, and do our best to convince the 2nd 10%, to keep their risk down a much as they can. The rest should be able to live life pretty much like normal.
     
  32. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    Flu death rate isn’t that high. Coronavirus death rate isn’t that high either. I’m not sure where you are pulling numbers from.
     
  33. BlakNGoldAllDay

    BlakNGoldAllDay Diamond Knight
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    Those numbers are from people actually tested. There are a lot of asymptotic people that never get tested and those that only get sick for a day or 2 and don’t get tested. For both. So the percentages are definitely wrong.
     
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  34. Knight Strength

    Knight Strength Silver Knight
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    I read somewhere that a lot of people who test positive are going and getting retested over and over again. I saw in Oklahoma they had a 100% positive test rate yesterday or the day before.

    The slant is it was the political rally that caused it but at the same time the rally numbers were said to be abysmal. It's probably a combination of everything. There's a lot of ignorance out there. I am saddened to see the lack of moderate voices in our media and politicians. My girl was wearing a mask in a store recently and a very large woman of an unhealthy shape called her a "sheep" haha. The woman had her two kids with her and I can just feel her intellect and disposition being passed on to those kids.

    As much as people apparently hate the CDC they're the ones who have been the most even keeled. How many of these people never even heard of the CDC before covid19? Lol.
     

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