Finally after all these months

[Crazyhole]

we are going to have a state to compare to New York in regards to covid.

It took twice the population and twice as long to get there, but it looks like California is going to take the top spot in covid cases this week over New York.

We can talk about lockdowns and social distancing and masks and red dirt for days on this one, but the only statistic that really matters is this: 1/4th the number of deaths. Florida and Texas will likely pass New York in number of cases in the next 3 weeks as well, but the same statistic stands out: 1/4th the number of deaths.

Those three states all have larger populations than New York, will each have more total cases, and yet will have a cumulative death rate that is 1/8th of that of the Empire State.

 

[DaShuckster]

Finally after all these months

Wow. I was positive this thread was gonna be about Trump back-tracking and finally endorsing the wearing of masks in the midst of a pandemic.

The crazy old coot is clearly getting weak. Trump didn't back-track on Obama being born in Kenya for YEARS.

 

[Crazyhole]

Wow. I was positive this thread was gonna be about Trump back-tracking and finally endorsing the wearing of masks in the midst of a pandemic.

The crazy old coot is clearly getting weak. Trump didn't back-track on Obama being born in Kenya for YEARS.

You seriously are obsessed.

 

[Crazyhole]

At our current rate, it will take 1200 years to kill our entire population. Hashtag perspective

 

[UCFBS]

At our current rate, it will take 1200 years to kill our entire population. Hashtag perspective

The US Media doesn't believe math exists or 'the math is settled' (to whomever has the biggest death prediction).

 

[sk8knight]

The US Media doesn't believe math exists or 'the math is settled' (to whomever has the biggest death prediction).

"The math is settled"... Bahahahahahahaha. I love it!

 

[Crazyhole]

Math doesn't work with the woke. Neither does science. The Rona is deadly on a beach but in a protest with thousands it's fine.

Math like New York testing being #2 in the country but it didn't keep their death toll down? That was the key, wasn't it? The more we test, the more lives are saved? I swear that I heard that somewhere.

 

[Boosted87]

we are going to have a state to compare to New York in regards to covid.

It took twice the population and twice as long to get there, but it looks like California is going to take the top spot in covid cases this week over New York.

We can talk about lockdowns and social distancing and masks and red dirt for days on this one, but the only statistic that really matters is this: 1/4th the number of deaths. Florida and Texas will likely pass New York in number of cases in the next 3 weeks as well, but the same statistic stands out: 1/4th the number of deaths.

Those three states all have larger populations than New York, will each have more total cases, and yet will have a cumulative death rate that is 1/8th of that of the Empire State.

Yes, Florida will under any conceivable circumstance have a much lower CFR than New York. More testing to identify more cases, better treatment protocols than 3 months ago, and better strategies to protect vulnerable populations. But it's silly to compare the absolute numbers when we are mid-curve.

Before Florida spiked, our CFR was ~4.3% on June 1st. NY is at ~7.5%.

Thanks to the massive spike in cases, our CFR has pushed all the way down to 1.4%. Does that mean we've done great things? No, it just means we've experienced exponential case growth and the deaths haven't caught up yet. That doesn't mean we won't outperform 4.3%, but the CFR is going to climb substantially from it's current level.

I've seen good anlysis that deaths lag cases by ~23 days. If we used that as a measure, we can say that all deaths to date correspond to cases prior to July 1st. If you do that, you'd have a CFR of 3.3%.

But since cases have increased 2.5x in July, that means we have ~220,000 current cases that still have to resolve. At a CFR of 3.3% that would be an additional ~7,200 deaths.

Of course, case transmission isn't at zero. If we've just gotten over the hump of the curve, we've still got nearly half the cases still to come. Let's assume 300,000 additional cases. That would suggest 9,900 additional deaths, for a state total of 22,000 deaths.

I'm not predicting this is the scenario that plays out. But it's far more reasonable than simply comparing NY to other states while those other states are mid-curve.

 

[fried-chicken]

Math like New York testing being #2 in the country but it didn't keep their death toll down? That was the key, wasn't it? The more we test, the more lives are saved? I swear that I heard that somewhere.

They didnt have the tests when everyone died. Chud logic again.