Findings on Heupel's Offense

[Money_Milton]

I have begun charting Mizzou's game from last season and hope to finish charting them all sometime next week and then I'll begin looking for things, but going through, I'll post some obvious findings.

I've done two games so far, So. Carolina and Purdue, to say I'm not a fan of the offense is an understatement and hope that some adjustments were made as the season went on.

First thing is, I've charted 69 plays run in USC game and 47 were run vs. Purdue. All 116 of them were run out of 11 personnel. This means they had 3 WR's, 1 TE, and 1 RB in the game at all times. The TE was split out occasionally, but I'm talking strictly personnel and not formations.

For comparison, this was UCF's from last season.

59% in 11 personnel, it is the most common in football. The NFL high for a team was 50% of plays, but with the college game a little different, I would expect it to be around where UCF was last season.

100% is absurd, and as you can see, UCF was extremely effective with 2 RBs on the field (Otis was charted as an RB all season).

Some quick things that popped into my head on this are:
1. Probably why Otis to WR is an actual thing and maybe more than a rumor.
2. This makes it extremely easy to gameplay against IMO. Even if the TE is split out, you still know what personnel you're lining up against every snap. This leads me to believe this is part of the reason Mizzou struggled big time against the better schools they played.

This is something ill be keeping an eye as the season moves on (Mizzou 2017 season).

No idea if anyone cares about this stuff or finds it interesting, but if you do cool, I'll keep posting, if you don't hopefully when I get into more situation play calling I can find some stuff that will make you think im not an idiot.

I also think the next game was their Auburn game, so I want to compare it to UCF's Auburn game.

If you are interested in anything lmk and I can try and look for it.

 

[Wings0fred]

Thanks for posting.

Maybe (hopefully) their personnel choices were dictated by available talent. Would definitely be a failure to not properly take advantage of the offensive assets ucf has next season.

 

[Money_Milton]

Thanks for posting.

Maybe (hopefully) their personnel choices were dictated by available talent. Would definitely be a failure to not properly take advantage of the offensive assets ucf has next season.

They've played 3 different TE's, about 5 WR's and 3 different RB's, so unfortunately, I don't think that's the case. Some decent sized TE's too, who you would think they might go 12 personnel for short yardage at times like UCF did a lot of, but they don't. It is crazy to me haha

 

[Knight Strength]

This seems to confirm my own qualitative research on the difference between Heup and SF. A well-known flaw of hurry-up/spread offense is you don't take time to change personnel so it becomes predictable. Teams catch on and are able to defend.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

This seems to confirm my own qualitative research on the difference between Heup and SF. A well-known flaw of hurry-up/spread offense is you don't take time to change personnel so it becomes predictable. Teams catch on and are able to defend.

That’s why having interchangeable parts is important. Having RBs be able to split wide and run entire route tree is being worked on now. Hard to tell what’s coming if RB lines up in 4 different spots in 4 different plays.

 

[Happy Hands]

If you've only charted two games, I expect the the latter part of the season to look different. I think a new offense was being installed and blossomed around mid season. A lot of the highlights I saw from the Florida game had lead blockers in the backfield.

 

[bignow]

Number one scoring offense in the SEC is worth noting.

 

[Money_Milton]

This seems to confirm my own qualitative research on the difference between Heup and SF. A well-known flaw of hurry-up/spread offense is you don't take time to change personnel so it becomes predictable. Teams catch on and are able to defend.

Frost, when they were having success on drives would keep it the same throughout, he just varied the looks drive by drive. He also would change and sub after an inc pass or a bad run, kind of after the momentum was lost from the hurry up

 

[Money_Milton]

Number one scoring offense in the SEC is worth noting.

Look at the teams they scored their points against vs. the teams they couldn't score against. 14 vs auburn, 3 vs Purdue , 13 vs USC as well. 50+ vs Idaho uconn Mizzou state, 45+ arkansas, a UF team who had given up on season, vandy, Tenn. 28 vs UGA is nice, 34 vs UK.

 

[Knight Strength]

Frost, when they were having success on drives would keep it the same throughout, he just varied the looks drive by drive. He also would change and sub after an inc pass or a bad run, kind of after the momentum was lost from the hurry up

I realise I'm not saying anything others (including our coaches) don't already know. I hope we keep some of those disguises or add new ones and continue to get better.

 

[Mikesi]

Look at the teams they scored their points against vs. the teams they couldn't score against. 14 vs auburn, 3 vs Purdue , 13 vs USC as well. 50+ vs Idaho uconn Mizzou state, 45+ arkansas, a UF team who had given up on season, vandy, Tenn. 28 vs UGA is nice, 34 vs UK.

Correct, but the lower scores were early season when they were losing and the later higher scoring games were almost all late in the year. It was really the tale of 2 seasons. First 6 games vs the last. It’s really difficult to judge, but we do have much more offensive talent than Missouri did IMO

 

[Money_Milton]

Correct, but the lower scores were early season when they were losing and the later higher scoring games were almost all late in the year. It was really the tale of 2 seasons. First 6 games vs the last. It’s really difficult to judge, but we do have much more offensive talent than Missouri did IMO

Agreed completely, why I expect it to change as season went on. Was just something that blatantly stood out to me.
A lot of people have also mentioned the deep ball, I have come across maybe 2/3 in 2.25 games so I'm expecting that to change as well.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

 

[Mikesi]

Agreed completely, why I expect it to change as season went on. Was just something that blatantly stood out to me.
A lot of people have also mentioned the deep ball, I have come across maybe 2/3 in 2.25 games so I'm expecting that to change as well.

I’m hoping that Heupel’s offense won’t take 6 games to get going and we start 1-5. Haha.

 

[Money_Milton]

Final Drive Vs. Kentucky, down 6, 1:48 left, drive starts on own 25 after a touchback, no timeouts left.

Very impressive to get off 10 plays here with only 3/4 clock stoppages for Out of bounds or an inc.

But, from what I've seen so far, Heupel's offense is a lot of throwing towards sidelines, than towards middle of the field. Interesting strategy here to start throwing the quick hitters in between the numbers, with no chances to stop the clock. Yes in college, first downs stop the clock, and their drive was looking really good, but they threw a 1 yard pass with 28 secs left and the guy couldn't get out of bounds and it left them to a Hail Mary to win.

Almost all of Mizzou's remaining games were close, so I'm interested to see if this is a trend if the situation comes up again, but worth noting.

Also, you can't say these were Lock's decisions on who to throw the ball too, all of these passes were first option throws to get the ball out of his hands quick.

 

[KnightVision82]

The QB makes a BIG difference no matter SF or Heup. Your always looking for someone that can make something out of nothing. We got one (QB) right now. USF had one which frustrated us big time last season.

 

[Knight Strength]

Mizzou gets too much credit for their 2017 season. They blowout a bunch of weak teams and couldnt keep up with strong teams.
Missouri State (W) is an FCS team with a 3-9 record.
South Carolina (L) won by 2x points.
Purdue (L) was a blowout by a 7-6 team.
Auburn (L) blew them out (#chargeon).
Kentucky (L) was not a good loss.
Georgia (L) was a blowout.
Idaho (W) was a weak team (4-8 Sunbelt).
UConn (W) was a weak team (3-9 AAC).
Florida (W) was a weak team (4-7 SEC).
Tennessee (W) was horrible (4-8 SEC).
Vandy (W) was a weak team (5-7 SEC).
Arkansas (W) was horrible (4-8 SEC).
Texas (L) won by 2x points.

The win streak at the end of the season is just when they didn't play anyone good.
I'm glad we have Heup and co., and think we have great potential but there's no guarantee. We will be tested next season.

 

[Money_Milton]

Mizzou gets too much credit for their 2017 season. They blowout a bunch of weak teams and couldnt keep up with strong teams.
Missouri State (W) is an FCS team with a 3-9 record.
South Carolina (L) won by 2x points.
Purdue (L) was a blowout by a 7-6 team.
Auburn (L) blew them out (#chargeon).
Kentucky (L) was not a good loss.
Georgia (L) was a blowout.
Idaho (W) was a weak team (4-8 Sunbelt).
UConn (W) was a weak team (3-9 AAC).
Florida (W) was a weak team (4-7 SEC).
Tennessee (W) was horrible (4-8 SEC).
Vandy (W) was a weak team (5-7 SEC).
Arkansas (W) was horrible (4-8 SEC).
Texas (L) won by 2x points.

The win streak at the end of the season is just when they didn't play anyone good.
I'm glad we have Heup and co., and think we have great potential but there's no guarantee. We will be tested next season.

I agree. UCF is probably more talented than Mizzou was last season, which a lot of people have mentioned, but I also think coaching means more than talent, especially at the college level. Also, Drew Lock is a highly regarded QB so it is not like Heupel was working with a trash can behind center and tbh their skill players are not too bad either.

The struggles against the somewhat decent and good teams they played against are glaring and aren't just a well UCF has better players so the coaches don't matter.

If you look at a lot of points they scored, it comes off bombs from Lock to Emmanual Hall where he just beats his man downfield. Scored 2 like that vs UGA, I think both were 50+ and scored on a 5 yard drive after an interception, so in reality they had one good overall drive, which came when it was already a blow out.

I'm not trying to knock Heupel, just curious about how Mizzou really was last season, bc raw stats are usually misleading. He is a very young coach and will obviously learn, but, Frost was a damn good coach, and a damn good play caller last year and I think people are over looking that bc they are upset he left.

 

[Knight Strength]

I agree. UCF is probably more talented than Mizzou was last season, which a lot of people have mentioned, but I also think coaching means more than talent, especially at the college level. Also, Drew Lock is a highly regarded QB so it is not like Heupel was working with a trash can behind center and tbh their skill players are not too bad either.

The struggles against the somewhat decent and good teams they played against are glaring and aren't just a well UCF has better players so the coaches don't matter.

If you look at a lot of points they scored, it comes off bombs from Lock to Emmanual Hall where he just beats his man downfield. Scored 2 like that vs UGA, I think both were 50+ and scored on a 5 yard drive after an interception, so in reality they had one good overall drive, which came when it was already a blow out.

I'm not trying to knock Heupel, just curious about how Mizzou really was last season, bc raw stats are usually misleading. He is a very young coach and will obviously learn, but, Frost was a damn good coach, and a damn good play caller last year and I think people are over looking that bc they are upset he left.

Frost was great, there's just no point in holding on to the past. I must admit, rose-colored glasses are helping me through this time as much as any other fan. No point in worrying all off season just because I don't know what will happen. Looking forward to seeing how recruiting goes these next few months.

Thanks for going through some of this data and showing us what it means in context.

 

[Square Knight]

For those (like me) not familiar with the "11 Personnel" or "12 Personnel" lingo, here is what I found:

The first number is the number of RB and the second number is the number of TE.

01: 0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR
02: 0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR
10: 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR
11: 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12: 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
13: 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
14: 1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR
20: 2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR
21: 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR

 

[Square Knight]

Just curious, when a team lines up with two RB in the back field, but one goes in motion and is out like a WR at the snap, how is he counted?

Same with someone like Otis who might line up in the slot, but goes in motion and sets up in the backfield at the snap?

 

[Money_Milton]

Just curious, when a team lines up with two RB in the back field, but one goes in motion and is out like a WR at the snap, how is he counted?

Same with someone like Otis who might line up in the slot, but goes in motion and sets up in the backfield at the snap?

Personnel is who's on the field by position. So for say Akins is a Tight End no matter if he's lined up in the backfield, on the line, or out wide. For Otis, I charted him as an RB, not a WR, well because he was primarily lined up in the back field and was used a lot more like a RB. When Killins, Otis, Akins, Smith, and Snelson were on the field, that would be "21" personnel.

Personnel is different than formation.

"11" is the most frequent by far in the NFL and I would definitely assume in college. Heupel definitely loves it from what I've seen so far I'd say he's at about 97%. It is not a bad thing for say, but to me, I think UCF's personnel suites them great to have 2 backs on the field, regardless if it is Otis, AK, Cordarrian, Taj, or McRae and last season that was what was most successful.

 

[Money_Milton]

I feel like I've been pretty negative, so on a positive, I'm charting the Florida game right now (Shannon's first as Interim HC), I'm in the 4th Qtr, Mizzou up 42-9, and man, when the run game is successful, this offense isn't easy to stop. Lots of plays in a drive and the run game sets up the QB keep and deep passes so well. Also quick short passes to the WR are extremely effective in this system as well with 11 personnel allowing the box to be more crowded and more space on the outside.

Snelson thrived on passes thrown behind the LOS-5 yards past, catching 26/29 targets and being successful on 20/29 so I would look towards him being a major target of these with Heupel.

Nothing crazy, just something I've observed and feel like everything thinks I'm trying to tear down the new staff (I'm not) so figured I'd throw out an obvious thing I liked.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

Can we stop insulting the man's intelligence and thinking, despite everything he's been saying, that he is just going to install the Missouri offense here? He's been coaching offense for awhile at some pretty big places. I think he knows what's doing.

 

[Money_Milton]

Can we stop insulting the man's intelligence and thinking, despite everything he's been saying, that he is just going to install the Missouri offense here? He's been coaching offense for awhile at some pretty big places. I think he knows what's doing.

Don't know who's insulting his intelligence. Last time I checked though, coaches don't change their offense/defense every time they change jobs. Will he add stuff to fit the athletes and play makers UCF has? Absolutely. But let's not think that he's bringing a new play book than the one that he used at Mizzou, so looking at their offense last year, is a pretty accurate representation of what UCF will run this season.
I have said I'm not knocking him, or being negative, strictly just pointing out things I have come across.
You're crazy if he's bringing an entire new playbook and offense. There will be some additions for sure, but not a new offense

 

[Poolside Knight]

The best coaches adjust and tinker their offense. If Heup refuses to while Milton is still here and it causes a setback in the offense like what happened with USF's Flowers last year then he is not a top coach.

 

[Mikesi]

The best coaches adjust and tinker their offense. If Heup refuses to while Milton is still here and it causes a setback in the offense like what happened with USF's Flowers last year then he is not a top coach.

He will probably have the same basic offensive philosophy, but Milton needs to run the ball almost as much as last year. It’s a weapon. I think we will go deep a lot to Snelson this year.

 

[Money_Milton]

He will probably have the same basic offensive philosophy, but Milton needs to run the ball almost as much as last year. It’s a weapon. I think we will go deep a lot to Snelson this year.

Agreed, Milton will always utilize his legs and almost every spread offense in college needs a QB who can. Lock did at times last season and was very successful. Milton is a lot better runner than him.

423/635 of Milton's rushing yards (not including FIU and AP came on designed rushes and not scrambles 62 out of 90 attempts.

There is no doubt, Heupel will continue to use Milton in the read option and QB draw game. He did it with Lock.

Milton is still a pass first QB though. About 2 scrambles a game he averaged which is not much for a QB like him.

I think he Heupels offense suites him better than Frost's did, but I'm just trying to tear down Heup and proclaim he's not intelligent, so I can't say that.

 

[Knight Strength]

Can we stop insulting the man's intelligence and thinking, despite everything he's been saying, that he is just going to install the Missouri offense here? He's been coaching offense for awhile at some pretty big places. I think he knows what's doing.

Also not trying to bash Heup. He's our coach and I feel strongly about loving our team and staff regardless of success.
I'm a scientist and am interested in the quantitative stuff Money (don't know how to tag him) is working on.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

can you chart the UCF Arkansas state bowl game?

 

[Money_Milton]

can you chart the UCF Arkansas state bowl game?

I could, anything you'd be interested in wondering, or just how bad UCF played haha

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Mizzou gets too much credit for their 2017 season. They blowout a bunch of weak teams and couldnt keep up with strong teams.
Missouri State (W) is an FCS team with a 3-9 record.
South Carolina (L) won by 2x points.
Purdue (L) was a blowout by a 7-6 team.
Auburn (L) blew them out (#chargeon).
Kentucky (L) was not a good loss.
Georgia (L) was a blowout.
Idaho (W) was a weak team (4-8 Sunbelt).
UConn (W) was a weak team (3-9 AAC).
Florida (W) was a weak team (4-7 SEC).
Tennessee (W) was horrible (4-8 SEC).
Vandy (W) was a weak team (5-7 SEC).
Arkansas (W) was horrible (4-8 SEC).
Texas (L) won by 2x points.

The win streak at the end of the season is just when they didn't play anyone good.
I'm glad we have Heup and co., and think we have great potential but there's no guarantee. We will be tested next season.

Will give them somewhat of a pass as recruiting the SEC when you name is Missouri is going to be difficult. UCF went bowling in 2016 as well and didn't beat a single team with a pulse. I wouldn't say that Frost's offense in 2016 was exactly what he wanted to run.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I could, anything you'd be interested in wondering, or just how bad UCF played haha

Would be interested in some comparisons from 2016 to 2017 with regards to personnel decisions. I suspect had much more variation with a QB who had better command of the playbook and much more in the way of offensive weapons.

 

[Money_Milton]

Would be interested in some comparisons from 2016 to 2017 with regards to personnel decisions. I suspect had much more variation with a QB who had better command of the playbook and much more in the way of offensive weapons.

Will do. Was thinking about going back to 2016 season, but that is more frost related and more interesting to Neb fans so I decided not too, but I'll definitely do the Ark State game at least until Milton got pulled.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Can we stop insulting the man's intelligence and thinking, despite everything he's been saying, that he is just going to install the Missouri offense here? He's been coaching offense for awhile at some pretty big places. I think he knows what's doing.

I don't think that anyone doubts that the man is smart. Where he has had trouble in the past was over-complicating the offense for his players. From what I am hearing from the players, it doesn't seem like the case. Heup may have over-simplified it.

 

[JAFFX2]

He will probably have the same basic offensive philosophy, but Milton needs to run the ball almost as much as last year. It’s a weapon. I think we will go deep a lot to Snelson this year.

If Tre plays this year he will probably be our fastest WR, and will make an outstanding deep target as well!

 

[Mikesi]

 

[JAFFX2]

Agreed, Milton will always utilize his legs and almost every spread offense in college needs a QB who can. Lock did at times last season and was very successful. Milton is a lot better runner than him.

423/635 of Milton's rushing yards (not including FIU and AP came on designed rushes and not scrambles 62 out of 90 attempts.

There is no doubt, Heupel will continue to use Milton in the read option and QB draw game. He did it with Lock.

Milton is still a pass first QB though. About 2 scrambles a game he averaged which is not much for a QB like him.

I think he Heupels offense suites him better than Frost's did, but I'm just trying to tear down Heup and proclaim he's not intelligent, so I can't say that.

He was very effective with both RPOs as well as those crazy option pitches to AK!!

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

Don't know who's insulting his intelligence. Last time I checked though, coaches don't change their offense/defense every time they change jobs. Will he add stuff to fit the athletes and play makers UCF has? Absolutely. But let's not think that he's bringing a new play book than the one that he used at Mizzou, so looking at their offense last year, is a pretty accurate representation of what UCF will run this season.
I have said I'm not knocking him, or being negative, strictly just pointing out things I have come across.
You're crazy if he's bringing an entire new playbook and offense. There will be some additions for sure, but not a new offense

Insulting his intelligence meaning all he is planning on doing is installing the same offense he used at Missouri last year. Charting 2 games in a career as an offensive coach is not examining or studying anything. It's not an accurate representation of what UCF will run this season. It's two games out of a coaching career.

No where did I say he would be bringing a new play book from what he used at Missouri last year. He'll be doing exactly what he said he is doing. Taking elements of what worked here before and adding in what he has used at every other stop along the way. That is not at all represented by 2 games from last year.

 

[Money_Milton]

Insulting his intelligence meaning all he is planning on doing is installing the same offense he used at Missouri last year. Charting 2 games in a career as an offensive coach is not examining or studying anything. It's not an accurate representation of what UCF will run this season. It's two games out of a coaching career.

No where did I say he would be bringing a new play book from what he used at Missouri last year. He'll be doing exactly what he said he is doing. Taking elements of what worked here before and adding in what he has used at every other stop along the way. That is not at all represented by 2 games from last year.

I simply made an observation and a statement based upon that observation. I have said numerous times that I know he will make adjustments this season, as any coach would. Also running "11" personnel the whole season is not a bad an unintelligent thing. The Rams ran it 81% of snaps this season and had a pretty dam good year. And his O coordinator career is only 2 years old, so 50% of that time is a decent representation.

A lot of things UCF did last season (RPO, speed options, read options, and taking one on one deep shots) are all involved in Heupel's offense, just incorporated differently and called at different times, set up off a different series of plays.