GAME 12: UCF @ USF, Sim results and Predictions.

[mr. knightman]

11/25/2022 usf Edition:


Let's review Navy...

Let's not...or I will get angry.

Moving onto usf...

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usf Fun-Facts:

usf is not in South Florida.

usf is located in Temple Terrace.

Their mascot is Rocky the Bull.

Their Colors are Neon Green and Dark Green lately.

UFOs/UAPS/Aliens prefer Beef.

Source: Tampa

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Players to watch for Tulane:

#17 Byrum Brown - QB, 6's", 206 pounds, FR. Played 3 games due to other QB injuries. 23-30 for 76.6%. He can throw.

#21 Brian Battie - RB, 5'8', 165 Pounds, SO. 157 attempts for 1074 yards. 6.6 per carry.

#10 Xavier Weaver - WR, 6'1", 180 Pounds, JR. 53 catches for 718 yards, average of 13.55.

Overall:
Points per game
UCF 33.91 USF 27

Yards per game
UCF 481 USF 386.5

Opp points per game
UCF 19.73 USF 40.7

RECENT common-opponent score of note:

11/18:

SMU 41
USF 23


***Onto the REAL Beef*** (or leftover Smoked Turkey Sandwiches, and Rockin' Brocolli)

Weather forecast at 7:00 PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 5:34PM (Really...f'ing really?)
Temp: 72 (Actually pretty nice!)
Chance of rain: 6%


TV: ESPN2


I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 with clear weather. I used JRP and Keene for QB equally.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 42
usf 22

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -20 (Vegas: UCF -20.5 11:02am 11/25/22)

"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 42
usf 17

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -25 (Not sure if Vegas should be damned anymore)

My friend's son Julian's prediction:

UCF 52
usf 13

Julian's line of doom: UCF -39 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)

 

[beelit47]

Bools win 2 of the 12 games. That places win lercentage at 83.33% and fpi is currently 89%. Navy had similar #s.


The wins are all blowouts. It comes down to the offense and especially the oline. Usf, like navy, plays trash defense. If we sputter then this game will be uncomfortably close. If we are running for 300 yds then our defense stays fresh and i think we gradually pull away. 54-17 good guys.

Q1- 10-7
Q2- 14-3
Q3- 17-0
Q4- 13-7

 

[beelit47]

Can u run the sims again without xavier weaver?

 

[SimpleJack53]

TY @mr. knightman I love seeing these every week I hope we win 99-0. But will be just as happy with a 1 pt win as we would return to the CCG! I hope we can pull it together and get it done.

 

[Yaes]

In the twwo time the Bulls won in the Sims, what was the difference. Different QBs or other players?

 

[mr. knightman]

Can u run the sims again without xavier weaver?

A part of me believes that won't make much of a score differential given where the spread is at Vegas and my results already being more than that spread...

 

[mr. knightman]

In the twwo time the Bulls won in the Sims, what was the difference. Different QBs or other players?

Often just turnovers or mistakes...we all know how that kills momentum.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Weaver didn’t play last week. Im assuming his stats loaded into this recognized that already.

 

[Gwoz]

They are playing 3rd/4th string QB odds are he had no experience throwing to Weaver. See it all the time when backups get in and other wr production go up because that's who the QB has practiced the most with.

 

[beelit47]

A part of me believes that won't make much of a score differential given where the spread is at Vegas and my results already being more than that spread...

Still not buying their freshman qb. Came in late against smu’s backups and then against a bad tulsa defense. Can probably throw when not under pressure. I think t will can mix up the looks we give him