Yes, the year before. Actually, we destroyed Pitt and they couldn't get 100 yards of offense before our 3rd team D was in mid-4th quarter.
But Milton was our QB then.
Luckily Gabriel is closing in on his level of experience now... and looked far better than Milton did in his first year too.
That said...
1) UCF is good for 30+, 40+ often
UCF is good for at least 30 points, period, even against great defenses... although 3+ turnovers can challenge that. Gabriel (3rd string QB to started the '19 season) threw 0 picks in 10 wins, 7 in the 3 losses by 7 points total. If O-line gives him 4 seconds all day, it will be 40+ with the dogs called off as Heupel will use 2nd half as practice (we do NOT run up the score, and slow the pace).
2) No big QB
With 6'4"/230lbs Mack Jr opting out, we don't have a short/goal line option QB, which hurts... Gabriel is likely staying in at all times. But if Gabriel has 4 seconds all day, again, won't matter. Jones is now 2nd string (4th out of camp last year).
3) D v. D
We're down 2 D starters (of 10) opt outs, and we're rotating D around. We'll win any shootout as GT must play lights out D to stop our O. But I still think GT will put over 200 yards on us on the ground as a result, ripping off at least 3 big (30+) gainers, as we are still picking Dstarters.
My prediction?
2 or less UCF turnovers, 41-17
3-4 UCF turnovers (-2 margin), 33-27
5+ UCF = under 30 points, GT wins
Betting: Take the under on 62... I don't see UCF getting over 50 as GT running game will slow us down. If we turn it over 3-4 times, we'll be down to low 30s, and GT will have 20-something, but not 30.
Vegas is basically saying UCF is in game 1, while GT has a game under its belt, so UCF will make mistakes, have 2-3 turnovers (-1 margin at least), give up a few big runs, so... only a TD for UCF. That's fair.
To get 62, it would have to be 35-27. I just don't see us getting quite 35, if GT has 27.