GT vs UCF game
- Thread starter Techwreck47
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Teams always assume we're small'n skilled, but don't win the line ... until they line up against us. We push around a lot of lines, especially many P5s outside of SEC. We recruit a lot of underdeveloped beef, a lot. There's not a year that goes by that we don't push around a P5.
2012: Ohio State - we dominated the lines, Braxton Miller was the difference (Bortles' 2x INTs didn't help)
2013; We pushed around everyone (played 3x AP Top 10 teams)
2014: Missouri felt it
2015: Got nothing here, won't excuse it
2016: Maryland
2017: Again, everyone ... Auburn managed a few penetrations early on ... even SEC forums were talking 2nd half
2018: Everyone (Pitt obliterated) ... until the 2nd quarter against LSU ... even SEC forums were talking
2019: Pushed around Pitt (again), Cincy learned from Pitt and stinted against our inexperienced frosh QB#3
Sorry, no, FSU line sucks compared to ours. They'll get better, but not this year. Even Pitt 2018 was UCF hurting itself, not that Pitt was better.
No, O-Line hadn't learned to mesh with our true Freshman QB#3 coming out of camp in '19. Our running game also says otherwise about our O-line even in '19.
That O-line now has more reps and our QB is a sophomore and the named #1 out of camp.
It's really about if GT D can come up with some 'disruptive' stints that hurt our O-line and soph QB#1. It will be far more difficult this year. The O-line has matured with our QB.
BTW ... you know who are DC is, correct?
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So you think y’all have a better front 4 than FSU? I’m not speaking of other power 5 schools.
Yes. FSU still has 3-star recruits on that line, and most P5s get recruit 'stars' based on their number of P5 offers, not how good/bad they are.
I'm thinking of at least 2 UCF guys that would be starters on FSU right now.
Again, if GT's D can stop our run game and stint on our QB, then GT can get the turnovers. Otherwise ... again, it's not going to be a 'shootout.' Some top AAC teams get into 'shootouts' with us, but not ACC teams (Clemson notwithstanding).
GT has the benefit of a game ahead, no argument. And if we can't get our D rotation down, we'll give up some points. But I don't see GT getting 30+ like we always do.
I'll eat my words if wrong. And that would mean we're 'rebuilding.'
But until someone shows us we're 'rebuilding,' I'm willing to say we're winning 7-8 games this season, with 1-2 losses in conference (@Memphis possibly another away game).
I called the @Cincy loss last year too. Pitt was just an utter set of screw ups, as we could 'score at will' half the game. Tulsa I won't excuse ... they beat good MWC and other G5 teams, but they were not a good AAC team ... but we've never, ever won @Tulsa (I don't know why ... I honestly don't ... small stadium?).
It's been a long, long time since anyone has 'blown out' UCF either. And other than 2015, only 1 non-AAC G5 (a G5 conference champion no less) has beaten UCF in 8 years, 2016 (we were 6-6 that year, 6-7 after the bowl loss to that G5 champion).
The AAC isn't like other G5s. We are better than the old Big East after the prior re-alignment.
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All I’m going to say is if we can’t beat GT, with a quarterback making his second start, by 14 points then all our fans have no right to talk about “playoffs”. The game shouldn’t be close
^^^ This is fair. We're still NOT getting into the CFP though. They will take a 3 loss SEC team before us. They will take a 2nd Big XII team, despite them sucking, or ND with Clemson. They will always pick ND, no matter how bad they don't beat someone we destroy, the same team, in the same year.
Had we beat Pitt by 2-6 points, it would be the same argument too. ND gets a pass ... we don't. But we lost, and we finally 'came to grips' with the fact that we had a true frosh QB#3 out of camp running the team. That was 2019. So if we win only 31-27, then yeah ... I agree, we should STFU about even bellyaching. Again, ND can do that ... we canNOT.
Unless it was like Stanford '19, 38-7 at half-time, and Pitt '18, 31-7 at half-time, and Heupel used the 2nd half as 'practice.' so they -- as the P5 like to claim, "We won the 2nd half." But we are still NOT getting into the CFP, 9-0, blow everyone out (we won't, we'll have 3 close games, maybe 1-2 losses, in conference) ... we're just NOT.
BTW, I was laughing at Stanford's coaching staff when they kept saying that. That's typical UCF. We do NOT 'run up the score' in the 2nd half when we blow them out in the 1st half. I remember during the last CFP 'debate' about us, they brought up that we didn't 'win by 4 TDs,' and even another analyst had to point out we do NOT 'run up the score,' and pointed out the half-time score.
That said, I seriously DOUBT we 'blow out' GT. Yes, FSU sucks. They suck badly. Against FSU, we'd be well into double-digit favorites. Mark my words, GT WILL give us a fit at times. I would NOT be surprised if GT is leading to start 2nd quarter, because of our own 'execution issues' and their ground game and clock control early on.
We always have issues in the first 1-2 games.
I'm calling this 31 min, 41 max points for us. We'll go under 30 if we turn the ball over 5 times, maybe even 4, though. GT will win if we cannot get 30, because it means we're executing poorly. If we turn it over even just 3 times, this thing is really close. GT will get at least 17, and I think up to 27 if we make mistakes, like 3 turnovers.
Yes, I see GT scoring more on us than FSU, because they have their personnel down 'better' than they did against FSU. Their FG kicker won't get blocked either.
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Really? I watched that game. FSU's D sucked. I don't see GT getting 30 points.I agree with you 100%. UCF better be prepared to play a good defense, don't be surprised if they don't put up 30 points. The good news I think UCF defence matches up well. They just need to contain the QB.
I WILL spot them MORE POINTS against us, than FSU, because they have their personnel 'more figured out' against us than FSU. But I don't see 30 ... unless we're turning the ball over a lot. I see 17-27 for GT, not 30+.
I'm willing to 'Eat Crow' this year if I'm wrong. I've been under-predicting P5 games (2017-2019), expecting them to get 30+ on us, and 3 of the last 4 P5s ended up with a whole 3-7 points in the 1st half.
Pitt 2018 -- ACC divisional champions -- got all 7 points from special teams, and they couldn't get their O to move at all ... literally. Their D was gassed by the 2nd quarter, and constantly falling over (5 times in the 1st half IIRC).
FSU DL has Wilson who is projected to be a 1st round draft pick and an all American DT. I’m not sure UCF has anyone like that in which GT will have to account for. FSU is very talented on their front 4.
Stop with the negativity. We can make it to the playoffs
If GT plays like they did against FSU on offense minus the mistakes they should put up 30. They should have put up 30 on FSU if not for the mistakes.
We'll see. I don't think FSU's defense was good. But I'm willing to be proven wrong.
We were #1 TFL. We did this against everyone. We've been doing it against everyone. Our D is opportunistic and aggressive. I said GT will get 3 big runs (30+ yards) on UCF D screw-ups, especially early on, minimum. I said GT will get 17 points, minimum. But unless our O is stalling and turning it over, I just don't see it.
Again, I've over-estimated P5s the last 3 years -- 3 of 4 regular season P5s (all ACC or Big 10) couldn't even get more than 7 points in the first half. Even Pitt '19 was just us screwing up in the first half, and we ripped off 24 points on Pitt before they could blink once we executed like we do. Even most of the last 10 minutes looked like we had it all 'in hand.' When we blew it, that was something I haven't seen in a decade from UCF (the 2015 dumpster fire notwithstanding).
Yea I don’t think FSU was that good on defense. I was just talking about their DL.
UCF shuts down runs. You watch UCF, and TFL just ... boom. It hurts. Doesn't matter who we're playing.
Now it's going to take us some 'meshing' to get the rotation down with the D, and GT will exploit that in the first half. But ... we shut down runs. Maybe I should have said our front 7 is better than FSU's front 7, but even their front 4 ... I see at least 2 of our DL being better.
Randy Shannon has been phenomenal with our D the last 2 years. Even when our O put us in a bad situation last year, we recovered many times from only a 0 or 3 point gain.
What killed us last year was the redzone scoring on O. That was QB#3 out of camp meshing with O-line overnight. That was it, literally redzone scoring on O ... not so different than GT against FSU. Literally.
To everybody who keeps saying this game feels like Pitt of last year, take into account that there will be no more than 11,000 in Bobby Dodd.
I think you are miss understanding me. I’m well aware that UCF is a good football team. however, UCF didn’t really play and good offenses last year. I think a both of what we are talking about is “what if’s” Saturday will hopefully give both teams a better gauge of where they are.
Let me try another way ... do NOT even think 'UCF' right now ...
Again, AAC SoS is usually better than 1-2 P5 conferences in most computers year-in, year-out.
I mean, even a crappy ECU team finds ways to beat ACC teams. And ECU has been crappy in the AAC.
You need to watch the AAC. It's why AAC teams can put up 35+ points on UCF, but most P5s struggle to put up 10 points.
Again, AAC SoS is usually better than 1-2 P5 conferences in most computers year-in, year-out.
Yes, but we in the AAC know a lot about the ACC. Unfortunately, most people in the ACC (and most P5s) know very little about the AAC.
I mean, even a crappy ECU team finds ways to beat ACC teams. And ECU has been crappy in the AAC.
If people on here are seriously worried about losing to GT then those same people would have been terrified of UNC.
GT is at the bottom of the ACC, UNC is towards the top, and we supposedly want to get into the playoffs against Clemson. People on this board need to sack up and believe that we are going to win by three touchdowns.
GT is at the bottom of the ACC, UNC is towards the top, and we supposedly want to get into the playoffs against Clemson. People on this board need to sack up and believe that we are going to win by three touchdowns.
SOS has nothing to do with how good the offenses y’all played are though. Also every team is different within the ACC and AAC so it hard to compare them based on conference. I will say, UCF is definitely good enough to be in the power 5 imo. Do you think y’all ever will be or are y’all trying?Let me try another way ... do NOT even think 'UCF' right now ...
You need to watch the AAC. It's why AAC teams can put up 35+ points on UCF, but most P5s struggle to put up 10 points.
Again, AAC SoS is usually better than 1-2 P5 conferences in most computers year-in, year-out.
Yes, but we in the AAC know a lot about the ACC. Unfortunately, most people in the ACC (and most P5s) know very little about the AAC.
I mean, even a crappy ECU team finds ways to beat ACC teams. And ECU has been crappy in the AAC.
I feel confident UCF will win if they play to their potential. The first game usually you will see a few mistakes. My point early is that the GT defense will be one of the best we face this year. Thus UCF may be held under 30 points for the win. 😎 😎 😎
GT of last year is not nearly the same as this year. GT could easily be anywhere from the top to the bottom of the ACC. That’s just how football works. Look at GT from 2014 to 2015.
we have 3 new starters on the OL, a grad transfer, a guy who was injured last year and a 6’7 340 pound freshman. At RB and WR we are pretty stacked, and we seem to maybe found our QB. Offense was our big issue last year and it could be this year but we just don’t know yet.
How big are y'alls DB's? Our 8 outside receivers average 6'2", 215lb. 5 of them had catches last week.
I doubt that will be much of a factor. 277 yards on 35 attempts with only 1 TD and 2 INTs. Numbers will inflate against us because we go uptempo and he’ll probably have 50 attempts.
The yardage was low because over 90% of those throws were short/intermediate throws. That is why I ask about your DB size because our receivers are very physical on 50/50 balls. QB doesn't need a lot of time to throw 5-15 yd completions. I think we'll try to pace our offense to keep yours on the sideline as much as possible.
The 2 INT's were just bad throws by a true freshman. One he tried to force and has to learn to throw away, the other was a TD if he makes the throw but threw it off his back foot on the run and it wobbled on him and was short. Hopefully he learns from that.
I disagree, I think GT will run more to slow the game down. His numbers could have been way different without those two Int’s, that’s why I said if we minimize the mistakes. That’s a big IF though. Besides that he was 68% passing which is not bad at all.
You should see the lines of CINN and MEMPHIS, they are as big as they get. Unless you are Alabama or Clemson we'll hold our own against big lines. I'm not totally skewed in my analysis of superior talent. We did fine against Auburn and both ran the ball and sacked the QB. Again, Sims will throw picks and if we can keep him contained our offense will light it up unless GT plays really good press defense against the passing game. We've got some really good YAC receivers too.
Most programs are like that, bigger WRs, smaller CBs. UCF is more of the same. Our starting 4 WRs last year were that average too. We lost a big one though.
^^^ This is really the game right here.
GT controls the clock and moves the chains with runs, passing when required = UCF has a real fight on its hands.
Just look at Pitt '18 (7-7/6-2, ACC Coastal Champs) v. Pitt '19 (8-5/4-4) against UCF.
Pitt '18 couldn't move the ball at all, had virtually no rushing at the half, and it was only a long run ripped off against UCF's 3rd team D in the mid 4th that nearly tripled their rushing. They managed only 100 yards or so passing until the 4th quarter (finishing with 163 IIRC).
Pitt '19 and around 200 yards rushing, and over another 200 in the air, controlling TOP. Even if UCF had similar, overall yardage, but was turned into largely a passing team 'catching up' after turnovers. The first 25 minutes of UCF@Pitt '19 looked like Marshall v. UCF in the '19 St. Pete Bowl ... one team making huge, repeat mistakes, and the other team capitalizing on them.
That's enough to beat UCF, when you're putting the (then) frosh QB#3 out of camp on his back 5 times ... and when UCF has turnovers near or in the redzone. When UCF didn't make mistakes, it 'scored at will,' re-taking the lead without issue by the 3rd, but it didn't play 60 minutes. I cannot stress that again, it took UCF barely 15 minutes to put that game into its hands. Then ... UCF got conservative, and sloppy, especially the last 5.
Cincy then watched those 'stints' Pitt used that confused 'thrown into the fire' Gabriel, including one that was totally 'robbed' as he 'didn't see' the LB. Having an extremely accurate QB (Gabriel is the best I've ever seen all-time in a freshmen at UCF, possibly anywhere in college) doesn't mean game experience and speed. Now Gabriel has seen such. He's been QB#1 in camp with the O-line too ... a beefy, experienced O-line.
SIDE NOTE: I think 2013 will always take the O-line cake for UCF all-time, plus our WRs could really block too
That said ...
Gabriel is QB#1 coming out of camp, even if a reduced effectiveness camp, and GT now has a game under it's belt. Mistakes will be made by UCF. UCF will be rotating kids on D. I see GT ripping off at least 3 runs of 30+ yards. GT will get more on UCF than FSU. If UCF limits mistakes, I don't know how the execution can be stopped.
Collins coached under O'Leary, not Frost or Heupel. FSU's up-tempo is nothing compared to Frost's, let alone Heupel's which is the fastest in all of college football (by 2 full seconds, which is already 2-3x most systems --- 8 seconds between plays). If UCF makes mistakes and doesn't execute, then it's a game. If UCF does, doesn't matter. That's literally it. It doesn't matter. UCF 40+ points.
Even LSU '18 Fiesta ... UCF with a frosh QB#2 'thrown in the fire' in only his 3rd game as a starter ... was more proof that. UCF dominated LSU the first 10 minutes or so. Then LSU switched to a pass first attack, and UCF had to play 'catch up.' There are ways to be UCF.
But you have to execute perfectly to win against UCF.
Joe Borrows did after that first 10 minutes of horrendous play. Borrow was flawless! That's why LSU won, flawless execution. And with Borrows hitting everyone, the UCF front 7 was 'dropping back' in the 2nd quarter, which finally gave LSU the run game in the 2nd half, as UCF's D had previously destroyed with many TFL early.
That's it. Really, that's it. GT frosh QB has to make UCF's D think we need to drop much of the front 7 back.
Pitt did just enough in '19 ... especially the last 5 minutes -- as Pitt they had really lost the game once UCF 'woke up' after the first 25 minutes of mistakes. And Cincy utterly confused Gabriel the best in '19, even if their execution left a bit to be desired. Tulsa ... I won't even address, that was just bad, like all UCF trips to Tulsa in its history (it's that high school sized stadium, I swear).
UCF is a run-first, defense against the run-first, program ... at fast speed, on both sides.
Yep. This 'all P5s are the SEC' BS has to go. No one says the AAC is like the SEC. But outside the SEC?
The AAC has teams that can line up with the ACC, Big XII and PAC-12. The PAC-12 has been the AAC's and MWC's bitch for years now. The Big XII has lost almost every 'top game' against the AAC -- best of B12 against best of American -- for the last 8 years. Even Big 10 is not good outside of 1 division.
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He threw 35 times in a 16-13 game? You think he throws less with scores in 20s-40s?
