Huff Po (FWIW): Is It Possible That You Had The Coronavirus Earlier This Year?

[KnighttimeJoe]

Now that we’re all hyperaware of the new coronavirus, you might be thinking back on the last time you were sick. More specifically, you may be reflecting on that cold or respiratory illness you experienced back at the beginning of the year. Is there a chance that was actually COVID-19?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/did-...oms-antibody-tests_l_5e7cb319c5b6cb9dc19b74b4

 

[Crazyhole]

It's probably been around for months in the US, it was just misdiagnosed.

 

[UCFKnight85]

Now that we’re all hyperaware of the new coronavirus, you might be thinking back on the last time you were sick. More specifically, you may be reflecting on that cold or respiratory illness you experienced back at the beginning of the year. Is there a chance that was actually COVID-19?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/did-...oms-antibody-tests_l_5e7cb319c5b6cb9dc19b74b4

Tons of people probably had it and didn't know. On top of this shit, we also had a 2nd peak flu season that's still ongoing and it's now peak allergy season in Florida. And that's on top of basic colds and mild viruses that float around.

 

[fried-chicken]

No, it's not possible.

 

[fried-chicken]

It's probably been around for months in the US, it was just misdiagnosed.

I want you to think about the fact that in countries that did nothing on this, their hospitals were overwhelmed within weeks.

We didn't observe that here.

In countries where this is growing, they cannot cremate bodies fast enough so they are piling up bodies in converted ice rinks.

If this was circulating earlier in the year we would have observed some physical signs of it and identified it. It's possible you have it now, sure. But the idea that this would circulate unnoticed for anything longer than 3 weeks or so is insane.

 

[KNIGHTTIME^]

I want you to think about the fact that in countries that did nothing on this, their hospitals were overwhelmed within weeks.

We didn't observe that here.

In countries where this is growing, they cannot cremate bodies fast enough so they are piling up bodies in converted ice rinks.

If this was circulating earlier in the year we would have observed some physical signs of it and identified it. It's possible you have it now, sure. But the idea that this would circulate unnoticed for anything longer than 3 weeks or so is insane.

Lol...the country doing that with the ice rink has total deaths of 4,900. I believe they are trying to isolate the bodies in specific area locations for not spreading the virus.

You can cremate bodies fast if needed. Remember Germany?

 

[fried-chicken]

Lol...the country doing that with the ice rink has total deaths of 4,900. I believe they are trying to isolate the bodies in specific area locations for not spreading the virus.

You can cremate bodies fast if needed. Remember Germany?

The point is that we would notice 5k additional deaths of similar circumstances in only 1 month of cases.

You're under estimating this because it hasn't impacted your area yet. Let's see if you're so smug about this in a month.

 

[Crazyhole]

I want you to think about the fact that in countries that did nothing on this, their hospitals were overwhelmed within weeks.

We didn't observe that here.

In countries where this is growing, they cannot cremate bodies fast enough so they are piling up bodies in converted ice rinks.

If this was circulating earlier in the year we would have observed some physical signs of it and identified it. It's possible you have it now, sure. But the idea that this would circulate unnoticed for anything longer than 3 weeks or so is insane.

Have the numbers for upper respiratory complicated deaths rose significantly over the last year? Nope. Unknown factors are chalked up to COPD. An unknown viral infection can exist indefinitely and kill patients, and until it has been identified the cause of death will fall into a known category.

 

[fried-chicken]

Have the numbers for upper respiratory complicated deaths rose significantly over the last year? Nope. Unknown factors are chalked up to COPD. An unknown viral infection can exist indefinitely and kill patients, and until it has been identified the cause of death will fall into a known category.

You're assuming doctors are as dumb as you are. This disease has its own symptoms. There are hospitals in New York where 15 people a day are dying in the same building and NY is like 1 month into it. No one could have had this months ago. They would have noticed something.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

You're assuming doctors are as dumb as you are. This disease has its own symptoms. There are hospitals in New York where 15 people a day are dying in the same building and NY is like 1 month into it. No one could have had this months ago. They would have noticed something.

The premise as it has been described to me is it has been here for months, but the CFR is so extraordinarily low that it didn’t manifest into the problem we see until an overwhelming majority of the population already had it. Like if 500 have died in New York, it means that millions were actually infected. When only 10k or so were infected we didn’t see the effects because only 1 in 10k actually die. Or something like that.

 

[Crazyhole]

You're assuming doctors are as dumb as you are. This disease has its own symptoms. There are hospitals in New York where 15 people a day are dying in the same building and NY is like 1 month into it. No one could have had this months ago. They would have noticed something.

Ok. Since we are dismissing environmental factors I'm going to assume that when this drops off this summer you'll assume it's gone.

 

[fried-chicken]

The premise as it has been described to me is it has been here for months, but the CFR is so extraordinarily low that it didn’t manifest into the problem we see until an overwhelming majority of the population already had it. Like if 500 have died in New York, it means that millions were actually infected. When only 10k or so were infected we didn’t see the effects because only 1 in 10k actually die. Or something like that.

But we're getting so many negative tests that would also be impossible mathematically.

 

[fried-chicken]

Ok. Since we are dismissing environmental factors I'm going to assume that when this drops off this summer you'll assume it's gone.

It's gone when everyone has had it or been vaccinated and if it doesn't mutate.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

But we're getting so many negative tests that would also be impossible mathematically.

Because it’s not an antibody test the negatives previously had the virus but now it’s not detectable.

 

[Crazyhole]

It's gone when everyone has had it or been vaccinated and if it doesn't mutate.

Gotta love the hedge. Ignore the premise and come up with a way to claim your position was correct after the fact.

 

[fried-chicken]

Gotta love the hedge. Ignore the premise and come up with a way to claim your position was correct after the fact.

That's literally all viruses. I didn't invent the science of antibodies you goober. I'm just sharing it with you because you seem to struggle with well established scientific facts.

 

[fried-chicken]

Because it’s not an antibody test the negatives previously had the virus but now it’s not detectable.

If a bunch of people have had it then we would be seeing a place like NY level off at 50k cases, but NY is accelerating even as they have more than almost every other country right now. They'll be over 100k cases in a few days.

 

[UCFKnight85]

If a bunch of people have had it then we would be seeing a place like NY level off at 50k cases, but NY is accelerating even as they have more than almost every other country right now. They'll be over 100k cases in a few days.

lol. Seriously?

Are you aware that NYC has nearly 9M people? How then does 50K cases prove that "most" people in NYC couldn't have had it already?

If you assume the Oxford study is legit, which said 50% of the UK probably already had it and recovered, and applied it to NYC, that would mean there's still a base of 4.5M people to be infected that haven't yet with 4.5M having already contracted it.

Do I need to divide 50K into 4.5M or can you handle that math?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

The math doesn’t make sense. If half the population already had it and recovered (because symptomatic people are testing at around 10%) then you would have already seen half the potential effects in New York with regards to deaths, hospitalizations, etc. that’s not the case. Thus it’s easy to reject the half infected hypothesis.

 

[UCFKnight85]

The math doesn’t make sense. If half the population already had it and recovered (because symptomatic people are testing at around 10%) then you would have already seen half the potential effects in New York with regards to deaths, hospitalizations, etc. that’s not the case. Thus it’s easy to reject the half infected hypothesis.

Ok well, a highly respected university has taken up this hypothesis based upon modeling that I'm going to guess exceeds your own personal capability, and they intend to test on it soon. I don't think Oxford just pulled this from their ass and said "Here, let's go with this".

 

[NinjaKnight]

For people that are really bad at math:

Please note this is in the log scale.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Ok well, a highly respected university has taken up this hypothesis based upon modeling that I'm going to guess exceeds your own personal capability, and they intend to test on it soon. I don't think Oxford just pulled this from their ass and said "Here, let's go with this".

Ok. I’m not willing to suspend reality and say that half the population was previously affected, meanwhile 10% of those tested today are positive yet cities are getting overwhelmed. I’m sure there are people who think like you do. Even at Oxford.

 

[UCFKnight85]

Ok. I’m not willing to suspend reality and say that half the population was previously affected, meanwhile 10% of those tested today are positive yet cities are getting overwhelmed. I’m sure there are people who think like you do. Even at Oxford.

So we’ve officially entered into the phase in which message board posters declare themselves better pandemic modeling experts than universities like Oxford.

Holy cow.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

So we’ve officially entered into the phase in which message board posters declare themselves better pandemic modeling experts than universities like Oxford.

Holy cow.

Again, good luck with your theory. 260 died yesterday. 400 today. But I’m sure the worst is behind us.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

FWIW, the unpublished “Oxford model” is already being shredded in peer review.

https://pubpeer.com/publications/868F9FDD735B1EF62FE3B05616148F#

 

[hemightbejeremy]

In case people are reading who don’t care to scrutinize the model, it basically used data through mid March that bounded the percentage of the UK already infected between 0.76% and 56% with a 95% confidence. In other words pretty useless for determining the true infection percentage. Then it was sensationalized with a title that more than half could have already been infected. If they had gone with 99% confidence, perhaps they could have suggested 3/4 were infected. Since March 15 new data (mainly a continual exponential growth in deaths) has completely contradicted the upper range of this estimate. But how dare anyone question question it. Someone associated with Oxford came up with it.

 

[NinjaKnight]

Lmao. 85 and getting absolutely destroyed in debates, name a more iconic duo.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity

 

[goodknightfl]

Well there was no testing to speak of until the last 30 days. The only cases that would have been red flagged is the bad ones before that. If you live in Washington, California, and probably in N.Y. , it is possible. Odds are 90+ percent that you only had a flu bug, but saying no one had it likely would be wrong as well. I would be shocked if more than a fraction of 1% got it here before Feb 1.

 

[NinjaKnight]

We are so utterly screwed.

 

[Crazyhole]

In case people are reading who don’t care to scrutinize the model, it basically used data through mid March that bounded the percentage of the UK already infected between 0.76% and 56% with a 95% confidence. In other words pretty useless for determining the true infection percentage. Then it was sensationalized with a title that more than half could have already been infected. If they had gone with 99% confidence, perhaps they could have suggested 3/4 were infected. Since March 15 new data (mainly a continual exponential growth in deaths) has completely contradicted the upper range of this estimate. But how dare anyone question question it. Someone associated with Oxford came up with it.

Kind of hard to believe they would publish that.

 

[KnighttimeJoe]

QUOTE="NinjaKnight, post: 1845776, member: 950"]We are so utterly screwed.

[/QUOTE]

I always find it entertaining when people go off on demented Joe. What’s this idiot’s effing excuse then?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Kind of hard to believe they would publish that.

Maybe why it wasn’t published.

 

[NinjaKnight]

QUOTE="NinjaKnight, post: 1845776, member: 950"]We are so utterly screwed.

View embedded media

I always find it entertaining when people go off on demented Joe. What’s this idiot’s effing excuse then?[/QUOTE]

Same with the sexual assault thing. I think it's a prereq that to be a Trump fan you have to be a massive, vibrating hypocrite.

I'm completely fine with looking at it objectively. I've said Joe is a moron for over a decade, and he isn't getting any smarter with time.

 

[Crazyhole]

Maybe why it wasn’t published.

I should have said "released".

 

[Crazyhole]

QUOTE="NinjaKnight, post: 1845776, member: 950"]We are so utterly screwed.

View embedded media

I always find it entertaining when people go off on demented Joe. What’s this idiot’s effing excuse then?[/QUOTE]

That was just bizarre. What was his point in that whole rant?