Chip Kelly and UCLA: "Hey Brandon wanna start and finish your career in Westwood?"
Brandon: "nah I'm going to sit on the bench in Oviedo"
Brandon: "nah I'm going to sit on the bench in Oviedo"
Looking at Brandon Wimbush's actual football performances.. I charted all 443 dropbacks (gifs)
- Thread starter Money_Milton
- Start date
Ucf had to have another qb and tried and succeeded at getting one . If Mack earns the starting job and gets hurt we’ll see how awesome this addition is —— and what happens if two qbs get hurt ? Depth was needed . It’s a bonus that this guy has a lot of big time football experience
Makes a lot of sense now Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields were probably told they would ride the bench that's why they went elsewhere fortunately Wimbush isn't interested in playing.
Not downplaying your analysis but the kid has only been the starter in 16 games. He really only had three bad games:
1. @ Boston College (2017)
2. @ Miami (2017)
3. Ball State (Milton had one of his worst games against SC State last season)
I guess we'll see if the staff can coach these guys up. We have been spoiled with Milton the last two seasons.
1. @ Boston College (2017)
2. @ Miami (2017)
3. Ball State (Milton had one of his worst games against SC State last season)
I guess we'll see if the staff can coach these guys up. We have been spoiled with Milton the last two seasons.
I don't think he believes he will be a back up. But i don't think he wins the job. I don't think the staff brings him in specifically to start, but to compete. They may sell him on the chance that he has, but I don't think the staff has him pegged as the starter. Frankly I think it is better if Mack beats him out. Better a long term QB than a one year guy. I think UCF is a place where he will be given a legitimate shot at being a starter at a school that will get him a year of exposure. But watching the highlights quite frankly I am not that impressed. He can run for sure, but we don't need that. We need a QB who can read the defense, make the call, make the throws to open up the run game. You could see the difference between DJ and KZ. KZ could extend the play with his legs AND with ridiculous passes out of the pocket. DJ showed some of that, but we don't have enough on him t know if he is able to do that.
Bringing BW in was a very good move. We needed the competition and the experience. He should be a leader in the locker room
I am sure he was sold on the ability to start, I just don;'t think that was the primary objective of the staff. If it happens great.
I think people fail to realize how good KZ is. We were totally spoiled, and DJ has had to follow immediately in his footsteps. BW will also be judged by that standard and God help Dillon if he is not the second coming.
I think DJ is better than people have been giving him credit for. Not really fair to judge against KZ
What do you consider a bad vs good game from a strictly passing perspective as my analysis is done from?
I look at it this way. We have 2 guys that could get us to 12-0 again against our schedule. That's a great problem to have.
True. We seriously may need both to go 12-0 this year.
^^^ this UCF is going to be really good no matter who the QB, to me it’s about who gives them the highest ceiling
Not if the QB can't get the ball to the WRs and they load the box on McRae. The D-line is a question mark too.
Criteria = More picks than TD's, which means even though maybe not super effective he didn't kill the team with turnovers. Completely my opinion and arbitrary.
@ Boston college; 11 of 24 for 96 yards and 1 ints (he ran for 4 tds)
@ Miami; 10 of 21 for 119 yards, 1 TD, 2 ints
Ball State; 17 of 31 for 297, 3 ints
He had several games where he did not have impressive passing stats (throwing between 100-150 yards and ~50%) but in several of those games he had like 2 Tds against no picks, for example. In many of these games he effectively ran on teams as well. His stats look like the story of almost every guy playing in his first season. Not high completion percentage and he bailed out of plays but at least in most games he hurt the opposition.
Like I said, he's got tools to work with and hopefully the staff can hone his skills and get him to up his game. I like that we have at least two guys battling for the starting job. If the freshman beats them out I would be shocked (and nervous)...but that would also mean his upside is pretty high. Under our current circumstances I just can't see Gabriel touching the field as a true freshman.
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His stats look like a guy playing in his first season? As a JR and you think that’s exciting? Um no.
We need a backup, if he can push Mack or Q to be the man, great. If he becomes the man, great. JwB AAC champs 2019, attacking champions, go get it
This.
I said this a few months ago. Heupel likes to go for the home run ball and often asks his QBs to make NFL-Type throws, which isn’t always realistic
Either a coach is going to adjust his coaching style based off of the personnel that he has or he’s going to lose some games.
Then.., if a coach loses game and still doesn’t adjust his style, that coach ends up an ex-coach
We sort of give him a pass for coaching one of the country’s best offenses in 2018, but that’s not really analyzing the offense too deeply.
As far as the Fiesta Bowl, one could always say that Mack couldn’t make the precision short and medium throws, so CJH sort of gets a pass there too.
2019 and 2020 will tell us a lot, but at this point
So far, it APPEARS that Frost called better passIing plays for the offensive personnel, but things could change.
Y’all realize completion % is a very misleading stat to look at without context. Throwing deeper passes on average lowers your expected com % but you don’t have to hit deep palls at as high a % to be successful as you do shorter throws because you’re gaining more ypa.
It’s why Milton’s com % dipped this season from last. His average depth of target increased 2.2 yards from last year meaning that his average pass traveled 2.2 yards farther in the air. This is a pretty significant jump.
So I’m actuality his completion % compared to his expected completion % is probably prettt similar between this year and last.
If you look at the NFL, Mahomes doesn’t have the best com % bc he averages in top of league in intended air yards and that’s why his numbers are what they are despite a lower com % than say Brees who’s might’ve broke the record this season not 100% sure on that.
Now this isn’t an explanation for Wimbush’s struggles although he did have a 12.01 aDot so I wouldn’t expect it to be high anyway. He struggled throwing downfield thus lowering his net air yards which is why there is such a significant difference between his net air yards and Heupels QBs from the last two seasons despite them having for the most part the same aDot.
Sorry really bored at work and still have 2 more hours.
Here is what’s happening. If you don’t hit on those deep balls and combining the misses with Killins running 1-2 yards up the middle, then you’re ending up with 3rd and long situations which are leading to too many 3 and outs
Hitting them or missing them are BOTH leading to huge time of possession discrepancies which caught up with us and will continue to do so.
Get the playmakers 1 on 1 in space with high percentage passes and UCF will ultimately end up with the same result. A score. The only difference is that it may take a few more plays to do so. This would lead to less 3 and outs, less 2nd or 3rd and longs and less of a TOP discrepancy.
IMO, Killins, McCrae and Anderson should be totaling about 6-10 receptions a game between them.
Do you know what UCF ranked in the nation in TOP including the bowl game?
Are you ready?
126th out of 129 teams!
In 2017, we were 105th. Not great, but that’s where we SHOULD BE.
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Haha you know my stance on everything else, was really just commenting on com %. The rest I agree with, actually charting receiving numbers now for my season recap and AK and McCraes Numbers were stupid good.
I could personally care less about TOP I know that’s not going to be something a lot of people agree with but
Adrian Killins and Greg McCrae combined for 27 receptions in 2018. That’s 2 a game. Regardless of what the average per reception was, that’s just a ridiculously low number
When your defense isn’t deep and is suspect, the TOP being that bad will catch up with you eventually. UCF’s offensive style will not give them a good TOP ranking, but 126th?
That will catch up to a team with defensive line depth issues. We were just lucky
Oh.. by the way, Otis Anderson went from 30 receptions to 16.
So.., that’s 43 receptions for all 3 in 13 games
Their yards per target were both incredibly high as well as their success rates.
Otis I want to split his numbers up by targets in backfield and split out. I had some interesting stuff based off those splits and field pos from last season that I want to circle back too.
Should be an interesting season recap
I blame DJ.
Seriously whats most important imho for a team like post GOL UCF is offensive team efficiency. Score on every possession regardless of time of possession, don't allow early shootouts and hold on for the win due to defensive attrition.
Of course, in a bunch of games we've been in early shootouts and have spotted 17 to 24 points to the opposition. Our ability to recover and invert the concept like we do amazes me.
And the stats agree. 4th in 2018 FEI Ratings offense. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff, 8th in 2017.
ESPN has us 8th in 2018 and 9th in 2017. 25-1 record. Accolades etc etc.
TOP by itself is useless. LSU had triple our TOP and only scored one more TD than us.
They should have scored three times more than us!*
Seriously though, TOP can be an inportant part of the full picture. Of course TOP is secondary to scoring. And scoring is secondary to winning.
They should have scored three times more than us!*
Seriously though, TOP can be an inportant part of the full picture. Of course TOP is secondary to scoring. And scoring is secondary to winning.
I blame DJ.
Seriously whats most important imho for a team like post GOL UCF is offensive team efficiency. Score on every possession regardless of time of possession, don't allow early shootouts and hold on for the win due to defensive attrition.
Of course, in a bunch of games we've been in early shootouts and have spotted 17 to 24 points to the opposition. Our ability to recover and invert the concept like we do amazes me.
And the stats agree. 4th in 2018 FEI Ratings offense. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff, 8th in 2017.
ESPN has us 8th in 2018 and 9th in 2017. 25-1 record. Accolades etc etc.
TOP is very important when you’re 126th and your defense is neither great nor deep
It’s no coincidence that none of the bottom 10 teams were very good
It’s an indication of all the 3 and outs and teams trying to slow it down
If we keep going for bombs and missing, it will catch up to us eventually
126th!
It would have been very telling what the year 2 improvement for CJH's offense would have been had KZ remained the QB. This year without the constant of the same QB, we may not really know how much better we clicked in year 2......
So you have the sixth ranked scoring offense that scores in an average of what? Maybe over a minute? You run a up tempo offense (something fans have been screaming for for years) you go undefeated with a conference championship and somehow TOP is a concern?
TOP is a bigger concern when you're getting beat in other ways too. IIRC we lost TOP all season and still went 12-1.
But when you add subpar defense, an OL that can't buy time, receivers that drop passes, a new starting QB, a 155lb RB up the middle, and a coach that doesn't adjust to any of it...then TOP is an issue.
I agree that relying on McCrae and Taj more, and going for shorter (higher completion) passes would have fixed the TOP issue for several reasons.
![[banana]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/1682178.gif "banana [banana]")
TOP wasn't an issues last year against a weaker schedule and led by a star QB. TOP was an issue when said QB was gone and competition was tougher. The argument of TOP wasn't a big deal for Fiesta Bowl because it was an 8 point loss. It was an 8 Point loss because 10 points were scored where the offense didn't gain a single yard.
I absolutely knew that you or someone else was going to throw the 12-1 and 6th ranked argument at me.
That’s actually a very weak argument, because once we lose another game or 2, because of the reasons that I have described, all of those wonderful stats mean nothing practically and all can get thrown into the toilet.
you are passionate but you can be objective which is a good thing.
The Fiesta Bowl was a GOL LSU box score, they kicked our team’s ass physically and with the yardage gap it could have easily been a 20 point win. I don’t know why our fans can’t admit that
