ADVERTISEMENT

Nm

Yeah, we can see you're all choked up about it.*
Yeah, haha. Clearly you don't care which is the point I've been making for months. Nobody cares about somebody dying that they don't know, that's just a statistic. I'm totally fine with that until those statistics are used as a club. Its disingenuous, just like your comment.
 
You're a great one to talk.
About what? The fact that I'm honest about being indifferent towards the deaths of people I dont know? At least I dont exploit them as statistics to gain political points. I dont hear you citing the world-wide death totals from covid because you are heartbroken over it, only the US deaths because you can blame them on your political nemesis.
 
Bothers me the level of stupidity we are making people think they are safe with a dumb cloth mask.
It bothers me that morons on the internet now think they know more than the CDC.

This is not an airborne virus. It travels primarily in droplets.

Droplets can easily get caught in the outter layers of a mask. The mask is never meant to catch the virus. It's meant to restrict how far your droplets travel and to catch large droplets coming in. Thus making you slightly less contagious and slightly less likely to catch it.
 
It bothers me that morons on the internet now think they know more than the CDC.

This is not an airborne virus. It travels primarily in droplets.

Droplets can easily get caught in the outter layers of a mask. The mask is never meant to catch the virus. It's meant to restrict how far your droplets travel and to catch large droplets coming in. Thus making you slightly less contagious and slightly less likely to catch it.
This has been explained here ad nausium. These guys have nothing better to do than troll the board.
 
It bothers me that morons on the internet now think they know more than the CDC.

This is not an airborne virus. It travels primarily in droplets.

Droplets can easily get caught in the outter layers of a mask. The mask is never meant to catch the virus. It's meant to restrict how far your droplets travel and to catch large droplets coming in. Thus making you slightly less contagious and slightly less likely to catch it.
"Slightly" is the operative word in that post.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ucfmikes
Now that Fauci has finally come out and said the Covid isn't a threat to kids and that they don't transmit the virus, can there be some apologies to Scott Atlas and the California doctors that have said the same thing for 7 months?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ucfmikes
Herd immunity is a math problem. R0 of 3 means 67% of the population need to be immune for herd immunity to begin to take effect. Half of the 100M estimate are in the past 6 weeks. So even if nobody else caught the the virus we are still going to have 100-150k more trailing deaths from those already infected.
The problem with this is that earlier in the year, only symptomatic people were being tested when we had really high death numbers. That portion of the sample size skews the rate to some extent. We likely won't see 150k deaths in the next few weeks, but its possible.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KNIGHTTIME^
You only care for political reasons.
SMH. Most responsible people understood from the beginning that there's nothing the least bit political about coming together as a nation to keep folks safe during a pandemic.
 
SMH. Most responsible people understood from the beginning that there's nothing the least bit political about coming together as a nation to keep folks safe during a pandemic.
If you limit your position to that, literally nobody would have a problem with it. Its when you start citing US deaths and acting like you are personally upset about those deaths that you lose your credibility. If you really did care about the death count, you would cite worldwide death totals. Just be honest about the fact that you address this as a political issue.
 
The problem with this is that earlier in the year, only symptomatic people were being tested when we had really high death numbers. That portion of the sample size skews the rate to some extent. We likely won't see 150k deaths in the next few weeks, but its possible.
He mentioned R0 which tracks the contagiousness of the disease in a completely susceptible population (it is the average number of people infected by 1 infectious person). It's used to assess an initial outbreak and predict the number of infections and lethality and a bunch of other stuff. You're talking about the IFR which is the lethality. Most of the models are built on R0 but it's not always the best seed for the predictions. (https://www.the-scientist.com/features/why-r0-is-problematic-for-predicting-covid-19-spread-67690)

Many people are using or citing the numbers calculated from China and that number is most likely not the r0 of the US because of population and behavior differences. The only place that we saw an initial R0 for an outbreak in the US exceeding 3 was New York which had a 3.86. New Jersey is the only other topping 2.5 at 2.62. The average R0 across the US was 2.26. (https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/)

One of the interesting rates to track is the effective rate of contagion (Re or Rt). This is the average number of people infected by one infectious person after health, policy, and environmental variables have been factored in. In the US as of 11/20/20, the Re (or Rt if you prefer) ranges from .91 in Illinois to 1.31 in New Hampshire with an outlier in Oregon at 1.63. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119412/covid-19-transmission-rate-us-by-state/)

The first article is very good and contains a quote saying something that I've been trying to say about all of this from day 1 when people start pounding the models: "All models are wrong, but some are useful. You just hope you’re in the useful category." — Benjamin Ridenhour, University of Idaho
 
If you limit your position to that, literally nobody would have a problem with it. Its when you start citing US deaths and acting like you are personally upset about those deaths that you lose your credibility.
You want to talk to ME about citing US deaths (which I haven't) when you've started a bunch of threads about the vast conspiracy surrounding 'fake' covid death counts?

And this pandemic has had a personal impact on me: My old college roommate died of covid a few months ago. Like many of my friends from my high school and college years, he was a big Trump supporter.
Just be honest about the fact that you address this as a political issue.
You've made it a political issue from the get-go. Just because I've strongly disagreed with you from the get-go doesn't mean it's political for me. It's just plain ol' commonsense.
 
He mentioned R0 which tracks the contagiousness of the disease in a completely susceptible population (it is the average number of people infected by 1 infectious person). It's used to assess an initial outbreak and predict the number of infections and lethality and a bunch of other stuff. You're talking about the IFR which is the lethality. Most of the models are built on R0 but it's not always the best seed for the predictions. (https://www.the-scientist.com/features/why-r0-is-problematic-for-predicting-covid-19-spread-67690)

Many people are using or citing the numbers calculated from China and that number is most likely not the r0 of the US because of population and behavior differences. The only place that we saw an initial R0 for an outbreak in the US exceeding 3 was New York which had a 3.86. New Jersey is the only other topping 2.5 at 2.62. The average R0 across the US was 2.26. (https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/)

One of the interesting rates to track is the effective rate of contagion (Re or Rt). This is the average number of people infected by one infectious person after health, policy, and environmental variables have been factored in. In the US as of 11/20/20, the Re (or Rt if you prefer) ranges from .91 in Illinois to 1.31 in New Hampshire with an outlier in Oregon at 1.63. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119412/covid-19-transmission-rate-us-by-state/)

The first article is very good and contains a quote saying something that I've been trying to say about all of this from day 1 when people start pounding the models: "All models are wrong, but some are useful. You just hope you’re in the useful category." — Benjamin Ridenhour, University of Idaho
You misunderstood what I was saying. I'm saying that since we have 2 periods of time, 1 in which essentially only symptomatic people were tested, and another that includes both symptomatic and asymptomatic people, we can't pool those numbers together and get an accurate representation of either. An assumption is always made on infection rate based on case rate. Now, we have no idea how many cases there were because its blended in with infections. Imagine having a pool of 100 people. 5 showed symptoms and tested positive and 1 d An additional 10 people with no symptoms also tested positive, but 35 more with no symptoms tested negative. Its literally impossible to predict at that point whether the other 50 have been infected. Do you assume an additional 10 were positive? Or is it possible that all 50 were but showed no symptoms so they didn't get tested? That could change the IFR estimate by 100%. To compound the issue, by testing asymptomatic patients and pooling positives together, we can't even come up with an accurate CFR because we no longer know who actually got sick and should be considered a case.
 
You want to talk to ME about citing US deaths (which I haven't) when you've started a bunch of threads about the vast conspiracy surrounding 'fake' covid death counts?

And this pandemic has had a personal impact on me: My old college roommate died of covid a few months ago. Like many of my friends from my high school and college years, he was a big Trump supporter.You've made it a political issue from the get-go. Just because I've strongly disagreed with you from the get-go doesn't mean it's political for me. It's just plain ol' commonsense.
"You Trumpsters continue to make covid-19 a political thing. Hell, after Trump poo-poo'ed the virus through 250,000 deaths, suddenly you want him to get full credit for a vaccine! Simply amazing."

Why are 250,000 deaths worth citing but not 1.5 million worldwide if you weren't making a political point?
 
"Exactly guys!!! Who gives a f*k about a couple hundred thousand deaths?"

Why just the couple hundred thousand here shuckster? What about the other million or so.
 
I just shake my head at the fear even now that we have data and facts. Seeing dudes wearing a mask in their car...lol. seeing dudes walk with mask by themselves outside...lol
I constantly shake my head at the non-stop stupidity of our "just the sniffles" crowd.
 
"Exactly guys!!! Who gives a f*k about a couple hundred thousand deaths?"

Why just the couple hundred thousand here shuckster? What about the other million or so.
I'm aghast at all the deaths, especially the ones we could have prevented here at home.
 
I'm aghast at all the deaths, especially the ones we could have prevented here at home.
Is that why you said this about Herman Cain?

"Nevertheless, the nation of Ubeki-beki-beki-stan mourned his passing."

Kinda sounds like that death wasn't too big of a deal that you couldn't make a joke about it.
 
Is that why you said this about Herman Cain?

"Nevertheless, the nation of Ubeki-beki-beki-stan mourned his passing."

Kinda sounds like that death wasn't too big of a deal that you couldn't make a joke about it.
1) It was funny; and
2) The Chud did it to himself by attending a Trump super-spreader without even wearing a mask
 
1) It was funny; and
2) The Chud did it to himself by attending a Trump super-spreader without even wearing a mask
Fair enough. You are saying that not all deaths really matter to you and some can be joked about, correct? I wholeheartedly agree on this if that's what you are saying.
 
Not a conspiracy. Just finally a recognition of the fact that the virus isn't what they said it was in March.
Isn't what they said it was in March??!? Are you kidding me??!?

Have you noticed what the world's leading experts said would happen with the virus this fall when it got cold again?" Were they right or have we "rounded the corner" as your boy Trump assured us all?
 
  • Like
Reactions: ElprofesorJuan
Isn't what they said it was in March??!? Are you kidding me??!?

Have you noticed what the world's leading experts said would happen with the virus this fall when it got cold again?" Were they right or have we "rounded the corner" as your boy Trump assured us all?
Ok, they were right.

Asymptomatic cases can spread the virus. Fauci is lying to us about that now.

School-age kids are spreaders and schools should be locked down. Fauci is lying to us about that now.

The tests are too sensitive and are picking up viral loads that are too low to be transmissable. Fauci is lying to us now.

The CFR is below 2%. Fauci is lying to us now.


Actually all of those things are true which us chuds have been saying for months, along with saying that cases would go up in the winter. Its not a success for you to point to that one thing while being wrong on everything else when that one thing was also being said by the chuds.
 
Actually all of those things are true which us chuds have been saying for months, along with saying that cases would go up in the winter. Its not a success for you to point to that one thing while being wrong on everything else when that one thing was also being said by the chuds.
You and your Chud buddies are all brilliant viral scientists and Dr. Fauci is a worthless hack.

Did I miss anything, professor?
 
You and your Chud buddies are all brilliant viral scientists and Dr. Fauci is a worthless hack.

Did I miss anything, professor?
Thats not what I said. Fauci just took 8 months to catch up. Are you with us yet or still clinging to faulty information from when you guys were trying to destroy the lives of doctors that were saying this same stuff?
 
Thats not what I said. Fauci just took 8 months to catch up. Are you with us yet or still clinging to faulty information from when you guys were trying to destroy the lives of doctors that were saying this same stuff?
I'm sick and tired of playing this stupid covid-19 game with you and your buddies.

Go ahead and listen to your Youtube doctors and...oops, I forgot those geniuses had their videos removed for some strange reason.....and praddle on and on, back and forth, with Dr. Knighttime about how this virus "isn't all that."

I'm officially removing myself from these moronic discussions on the subject.
 
NY with 2 mil people less than FL and mostly still locked down, is once again matching or beating #s of infections and deaths, and IL is worse. Lockdowns don't work.
 
NY with 2 mil people less than FL and mostly still locked down, is once again matching or beating #s of infections and deaths, and IL is worse. Lockdowns don't work.
Let's be honest, lockdowns work in the ideal case. This would be the case where everyone could provision for 2 - 3 weeks of total isolation and then everything would shut down. No one would leave their living quarters for 2 - 3 weeks period. There would be absolutely no physical interaction among human beings of different households at all. Those who are infected would either recover or die. We'd come clean up afterwards but the virus would die out.

Unfortunately this is the realm of fantasy. In the real world, we need fire services to put out fires started by people, we need police to cover domestics, criminals would take advantage of the lockdowns for all kinds of crimes, there's no way to lockdown the homeless, people need exercise, they need to walk their pets, and they need to get treatments for all sorts of things. Even if we stamped it out in the human population, the virus transitions from humans to animals and back so there will be SARS CoV-2 waiting in the wings no matter what we do. There are simply too many disease vectors to account for and too much of human need and behavior to overcome for lockdowns to be effective.
 
Let's be honest, lockdowns work in the ideal case. This would be the case where everyone could provision for 2 - 3 weeks of total isolation and then everything would shut down. No one would leave their living quarters for 2 - 3 weeks period. There would be absolutely no physical interaction among human beings of different households at all. Those who are infected would either recover or die. We'd come clean up afterwards but the virus would die out.

Unfortunately this is the realm of fantasy. In the real world, we need fire services to put out fires started by people, we need police to cover domestics, criminals would take advantage of the lockdowns for all kinds of crimes, there's no way to lockdown the homeless, people need exercise, they need to walk their pets, and they need to get treatments for all sorts of things. Even if we stamped it out in the human population, the virus transitions from humans to animals and back so there will be SARS CoV-2 waiting in the wings no matter what we do. There are simply too many disease vectors to account for and too much of human need and behavior to overcome for lockdowns to be effective.
This would have to be done on a global scale, and it would have to be taken x 2 weeks for every person in the same household. 5 people in your house = 10 weeks of quarantine.
 
This would have to be done on a global scale, and it would have to be taken x 2 weeks for every person in the same household. 5 people in your house = 10 weeks of quarantine.
I think that you'd only have 10 weeks if the virus cycles through your household. But with that said, to be absolutely sure, you're right. This excludes any chance of test failures and asymptomatic carriers.
 
A point that is kind of lost in all of this is that while yes we are spiking in cases and deaths, when compared to the first spike the numbers are encouraging. Back in late April we were having around 30k cases and 2200 deaths. Now we are having 200k cases and 2200 deaths. Since it was limited to just a few states back in April and now its everywhere, increased testing doesnt explain this. The only thing that does, is that the virus has mutated into a less virulent strain as predicted. Thats pretty good news.
 
Two problems with that. One it is believed that animals can transmit covid. So as they are around they are shedding the virus. 2nd problem we can't 100% isolate. We are in a service economy and our broader with Canada and Mexico isn't locked down completely. The minute one infected person gets it the 2-3 week lockdown is wasted. How will folks get food for 2-3 weeks? If they make an exception it is also a waste of time since it won't stop at the grocery stores.

If we were surrounded by water and completely lock down from international travel that could be possible. To destroy our economy over a 99% survival rate makes no sense anyway.
I appreciate you @KNIGHTTIME^. Especially when we are saying the same thing.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: ChrisKnight06


This kind of stuff won't end, even if we had 100% of people receiving the vaccine. Its now pervasive within the culture.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT