Obama vs Trump economies

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by Crazyhole, Jul 14, 2019.

  1. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Had an interesting discussion about the economy with a liberal friend of mine. He claimed that the Obama years were every bit as good as the Trump years because GDP growth and inflation have been basically the same every year since 2010 and that unemployment has been on a steady decline the entire time so Obama's policies are every bit as good as Trumps. All of those numbers are accurate, but I explained that he was missing one important aspect. In the 8 years that Obama was president, the Fed had a 0% interest rate a for 7 years and for 1 year it was at .25%. Since Trump took office the Fed has raised the rates to 3 times the max level that Obama experienced in his tenure, not even taking into account the fact that for 6 years we were doing QE. That means we have experienced the same level of growth over the last 3 years while the FED has been contracting the money supply as opposed to growing it and lending it out for free.

    A pretty good argument can be made that in reality the Obama economy was actually recessionary the entire time and that while Trump's economy isn't necessarily great, it is actually producing real growth.
     
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  2. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    Interest rates are still pretty low. Yes, they are higher than when Obama was in office, but they are still low. You are also dismissing that Trump inherited an economy that was already on the way up, while Obama inherited one of the worst economies since the depression. The president, no matter how good or bad, isnt likely to have that much of an impact on the economy to either save it by himself or destroy it by himself.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/tru...deliver-promised-3percent-growth-in-2018.html
    And as that article points out, the economy really isnt growing much, if any more than it did during much of Obama's administration.
     
  3. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    That article fails to take into account the exact same thing my friend did: QE and 0% interest rates. Imagine what growth would "look" like now if the Fed was still pumping free money into the economy as they did for 7 years.
     
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  4. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Silver Knight
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    I’m doing just fine with my larger take home paycheck

    I’m not sure that when we are discussing a
    President and the economy, we are ever talking about it’s saving or destruction

    Unemployment is down and gas prices are low

    Didn’t gas prices hit $4.00-$6.00 a gallon under Obama?
     
    4 Ucfmikes, Jul 14, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
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  5. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    Unemployment has been on the decline for 9 years. Trump inherited an economy that was already having declining unemplyment and job growth. You can certainly say it has continued that trend under Trump, but to act like it didnt start until Trump became the president is ignoring the actual data.


    [​IMG]


    Average

    Gas prices are lower now than they were at points in Obama's administration, but they are actually higher about the same now as when Obama left office. There are also a lot of factors with gas prices though, that can't be pinned on a president. For example , If a natural disaster knocks out a refinery for a few weeks, then prices are going up, but that obviously isnt because of the policies of the president. Which gets back to may point that we give to much credit/blame often times to the president with regards to the economy.
     
    5 Cubs79, Jul 14, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
  6. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Silver Knight
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    You have to admit though that when unemployment gets to these low levels that it’s very, very difficult to keep it trending downward.

    Honestly at this point a leveling off not only should be expected, but accepted

    As far as gas prices:

    “Gasoline prices fell sharply because oil prices collapsed. President Trump influenced that by conning Saudi Arabia into increasing production and then letting Iran continue to export oil.”

    Of course this could change any minute
     
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  7. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    But quantitative easing was done to get the economy back on track from disaster of an economy he inherited. The economy would have recovered much slower, potentially even gotten worse, if not for QE. IF QE didnt take place, Trump wouldnt have inherited the economy he did and UE and growth would likely be much slower, so I would argue it is a moot point.
     
  8. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    Of course, but it doesnt change the fact the Trump inherited an economy that was already improving. If a pinch hitter comes in to hit in the 9th inning of a 10-0 game, and hits a HR to make it 11-0, then that is great for him, but we also wouldnt act like he won the game with that HR. Honestly, if you think the economy is good now, then I think you would have to argue it was good under Obama's last few years as well, which is basically my point.
     
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  9. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    Here’s a bit of fact to dispel a lot of lies and fake news pushed by the left

     
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  10. UCFWayne

    UCFWayne Diamond Knight
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    some people cant accept that trump is doing a good job.
     
  11. The Branch

    The Branch Silver Knight
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    These days the only thing that matters is the narrative. You can have the best economy, but if you lose the public narrative it doesn't matter.

    People can bring out 4,000 different stats that tell 4,000 different stories on whether the economy is good or not. People can explain 50 different ways why this is Trump's great economy or he was just handed a great one by Obama.

    For Obama's 8 years, EVERYTHING bad was Bush's fault. Everything good was Obama's genius. Now with Trump, everything bad is his fault and everything good "started with Obama". It never ends.

    All that matters is the narrative. Just like everything else in politics (especially the economy and immigration).
     
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  12. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    Yeah the economy is great for some people. Has your life changed much?
     
  13. UCFWayne

    UCFWayne Diamond Knight
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    yes, my wife got a better job. we are putting more money into our savings now than before while at the same time increasing our leisure spending. we are enjoying life now more than before. #winning
     
  14. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    Welcome to adult life I guess? You know it's not abnormal to earn more money as you get older. I shouldn't be surprised you think career advancement only started under Trump but somehow I still am.

    I'm talking about middle class workers as a whole you troglodyte.
     
  15. UCFWayne

    UCFWayne Diamond Knight
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    you really live a sad and anger filled life. you are constantly lashing out. i hope you dont raise a hand to your children or wife.
     
  16. Knight_Classes_begin_7pm

    Knight_Classes_begin_7pm Silver Knight
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    Exactly! right after bush cheney PLUNGED us into the worst recession ever, President Obama had to fix it from zero. And he did it with Class.
     
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  17. Knight_Classes_begin_7pm

    Knight_Classes_begin_7pm Silver Knight
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    So one gets a better job and puts more money into savings, meanwhile, FRUMP is borrowing at a rate never seen before. The money has to come from somewhere? And wages rising...yeah, minutely.
     
  18. beelit47

    beelit47 Five-Star Recruit
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    Obama tripled the deficit of every preceeding president before him during his first term. Trumps economy has pulled more people out of poverty and off food stamps, obamas economy put more people on food stamps. Enjoy your TDS
     
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  19. DaShuckster

    DaShuckster Silver Knight
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    Even CRAZIER than that, beelit, OBAMA ACCOMPLISHED THAT FEAT IN HIS FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE!!!

    Sometimes you have to literally stop in your tracks and wonder with genuine awe at the complete and utter ignorance of some people.
     
  20. GatorBull325

    GatorBull325 Three-Star Recruit
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    I swear people purposely ignore that Trump and Obama had 2 different starting points and trending directions for the economy when they first got into office.
     
  21. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Without QE, what do you think Obama's economy would have looked like?
     
  22. UCFWayne

    UCFWayne Diamond Knight
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    remember when obama gave a ton of money to evil bank ceos, all his buddies, and no one batted an eye? yea me too
     
  23. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    I don't understand why you keep bringing this up. Obama did what they had to do to keep the economy from completely bottoming out. If he had done nothing you guys would have faulted him, but you also fault him for doing something. Without QE, the current economy doesn't look like it does either, so Trump has also benefited from it because he wouldn't have inherited the same economy. You also don't seem to be acknowledging that.
     
  24. KnighttimeJoe

    KnighttimeJoe Diamond Knight
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    W did plenty to bail the banks and shit out before he left office. Buhlieve me.
     
  25. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    I keep bringing it up because it was the only thing that keep us in positive numbers, but it wasn't real growth. We should have let things bottom out naturally and let the market reset itself. All that policy did was mortgage the future. We now have real growth in spite of Obama's monetary policies, not because of them.
     
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  26. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    This is just a bunch of partisan spin. Trump's economy is just a continuation of Obama's economy. And of course it was the only thing that kept us in positive #s. Obama inherited the worst economy since the depression. You would have been ok with him doing nothing and letting even more people lose money and having an even slower recovery? And keep in mind, we aren't talking about a run of the mill recession, we are talking about 12 of the largest banks in the country being on the verge of collapse. Which by the way, if that had happened, Trump wouldn't have the economy he does not either, which you have still yet to acknowledge.

    BTW, you realize Trump is for QE right? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/tru...rcent-and-urges-more-quantitative-easing.html
     
    26 Cubs79, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  27. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    How is it partisan to say that Obama had the "benefit" of QE and Trump doesn't?
     
  28. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    You are acting as if the economy starts over when a new president is sworn in. It doesn't. Trump inherited an economy that had benefited from QE, which for some reason you either wont acknowledge or don't understand. All the current trends we are seeing in the economy, are a continuation of what started with the Obama economy and QE. Unemployment started going down years ago, there were record breaking stock market #s while Obama was in office as well, etc etc. If there was no QE, the recovery would have been much different, and Trump would not have inherited the same economy that he did. Surely you realize that.
     
  29. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Geez. It isn't a continuation, we are now in a reversal. The FEDs balance sheet went from 900 billion to nearly 5 trillion during Obamas terms. Now the FED is allowing securities to mature without renewing them, or as they did for 7 years, create more. They are literally taking money out of the system now as opposed to pumping more in, and we are maintaining growth. There is no reasonable argument that can be made that our economy is healthier now than it was. If our monetary policy was static over the course of the last 10 years, we would see a spread of 5-6 points between the two administrations. If the FED was still pumping free money into the system we would be seeing 6-7% growth or more.
     
  30. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    You aren't getting my point. The trends are a continuation as far as unemployment, stock market, job growth, etc etc.

    Without QE in the previous administration, do you think Trump's economy would look like it does now? Simple yes or no question.
     
  31. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    Remember, Paul Krugman and very serious liberals assured everyone on November 6, 2016 that the election of Donald Trump would create the greatest economic collapse in modern history that would take decades to recover from, IF we ever recovered at all.
     
  32. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Without QE, the economy would have corrected itself by 2013 and we would have been seeing real growth since then. We would probably be a point or 2 higher right now than what we have, maybe more. You should look at the depression of 1920 and compare it to the recession of 2008. It was deeper than the great depression but shorter lived and led to larger growth thanks to monetary and fiscal policies being rational and consistent with proven market fundamentals.
     
  33. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    This is a lot of speculation with absolutely no evidence to back it up.

    Define what you mean by real growth. You keep using that term, but have yet to show any numbers or even actually define what you mean by that.

    And what you mean a point or 2 higher? In the stock market? Or GDP? Are you really going to quibble that a point or two in the market is a different economy than what we currently have?
     
    33 Cubs79, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  34. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    Since Trump took office, we've only had one quarter of GDP Growth less than 2%. And that was the 1Q 2017.

    Look at how many sub 2% quarters we had prior. Or in some cases, negative GDP growth.

    [​IMG]
     
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  35. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    Your chart shows peaks and valleys and then stability from about 2016 onward. I am not sure how this disproves my point that the Trump economy is a continuation of the Obama economy.
     
  36. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    Um you just answered it yourself, didn't you?
     
  37. Cubs79

    Cubs79 Bronze Knight
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    Huh?
     
  38. DaShuckster

    DaShuckster Silver Knight
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    The pungent odors of 85's daily efforts to French kiss Trump's fat ass evidently went to his head.
     
  39. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    You just pointed out that we're finally in an era of consistent growth that isn't wildly fluctuating. Over the last 5 quarters we are averaging 3% growth which is extremely good news.

    It's not healthy to have 4% GDP growth, then crash down to 1% the next quarter, and then get negative growth and flirt with recession.
     
  40. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Well, we can look at it from a micro level instead of a macro level.

    A person wants to buy a house worth double of what they had. They finance 100% of the value to buy it. By appearances, they are experiencing growth but their balance sheet hasn't changed. That's what we had for 7 years. We are now improving our balance sheet even though securities are finally maturing and being taken out of the economy. We are growing AND paying off debt, not floating at the status quo. Now the federal government is a totally different issue and they are not making forward progress but the country in general is.
     

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