Projected CFP Rankings & Scenarios

[GeniusParks]

The question is whether Michigan drops behind UCF or not. I take what the CFP chairman said honestly that the MM injury is not used against UCF and that UCF continued to dominate the game after his exit from the game. At first I thought Michigan would stay ahead of UCF, but now that LSU has lost that barn-burner to A&M I think UCF climbs to 7. I think UF climbs to 9 ahead of LSU based on the head to head and that the Top 10 looks like the following:

1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Clemson (12-0)
3. Notre Dame (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Oklahoma (11-1)
6. Ohio State (11-1)
7. UCF (12-0)
8. Michigan (10-2)
9. Florida (9-3)
10. LSU (9-3)

SCENARIOS:
Alabama is in the playoff with a win OR a close loss to UGA. With OU and tOSU being so close statistically, the committee would use Bama as a cop out of choosing 1 over the other.

Notre Dame has clinched a playoff spot.

Clemson is in with a win over Pitt. If they lose and both OU, tOSU win they could get left out of the playoff but it's really muddy.

Georgia is in with a win over Bama. A loss will send them to the Sugar Bowl.

Oklahoma is in if they beat Texas and Bama beats Georiga. They could also get in if Pitt

Ohio State is in if they beat Northwestern, Bama beats UGA, and OU loses to Texas

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

The other Nightmare Scenario
UGA, OU, tOSU, and UCF all lose. In that case I say just give Bama a bye into the Championship game.

Projected Bowls if the status quo goes next week. Taking guesses here:
Sugar: #5 UGA vrs #11/12 Penn State?
Rose: #11/12 Washington vrs # 6 Ohio State
Fiesta: #10 LSU vrs #8 Michigan
Peach: #9 Florida vrs #7 UCF

Cotton: #2 Clemson vrs #3 Notre Dame
Orange: #1 Bama vrs #4 Oklahoma

 

[MckenzieMilton10]

Still crazy to see UCF surrounded by those schools in the top 10.

Anything can happen. Hoping Mack balls out on Saturday so we can keep our part going.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

SCENARIOS:

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

Not happening

Also if we beat Memphis we are going to the Fiesta. Lock it in. The head of the Peach bowl already said he didn’t want UCF for a second year in a row, and this was before MM injury

 

[KnightNite]

Ah, I missed your thread. My top 10 guess is pretty close to yours with UCF also at #7.

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Georgia
5. OSU
6. Oklahoma
7. UCF
8. Michigan
9. Florida
10. Penn State

Thinking about your knightmare scenario

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

Bama will probably beat Georgia
Texas has already beat Oklahoma earlier and they don't look so great, so this is a toss up
That means the most probable path to keep the playoff all P5 is OSU winning the big ten.
Seems a little too close for comfort and makes me think they'll prop up some other P5 team.

 

[GoKnights2003]

Knightmare is totally possible imo! End of the the day..... UCF vs. UF. After all we've been through being home is not all that bad.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Not sure that I want to be in the playoff without KZ.

 

[anon_ki59ERik4csguoSd]

Not sure that I want to be in the playoff without KZ.

Ya, with KZ, I felt we had a shot against anyone. Now, I'm not sure if we can even beat Memphis.

I know everyone is saying Mack will have all week with the starters, but those days will go by very quickly, and that's really not much time to develop anything that's much different from what we've already seen.

College football is so QB dependant, which is why on Gameday, Herbie said if Milton were at Miami, they'd be competing for a National Title right now.

KZ was our X-factor. Our fast moving offense has been key to our wins, and he knew how to drive the clown car. I can't count how many times we've caught teams offguard with our pace. It's resulted in penalties and touchdowns, just by being fast. Mack hasn't shown he can do even that, let alone be a passing threat.

Unless something magical clicks over the next 6 days, this won't be fun to watch next Saturday.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Still crazy to see UCF surrounded by those schools in the top 10.

Anything can happen. Hoping Mack balls out on Saturday so we can keep our part going.

Crazy but need to get used to it. At least for the rest of the decade.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Not happening

Also if we beat Memphis we are going to the Fiesta. Lock it in. The head of the Peach bowl already said he didn’t want UCF for a second year in a row, and this was before MM injury

Someone needs to get in their face and yell at them.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Ya, with KZ, I felt we had a shot against anyone. Now, I'm not sure if we can even beat Memphis.

I know everyone is saying Mack will have all week with the starters, but those days will go by very quickly, and that's really not much time to develop anything that's much different from what we've already seen.

College football is so QB dependant, which is why on Gameday, Herbie said if Milton were at Miami, they'd be competing for a National Title right now.

KZ was our X-factor. Our fast moving offense has been key to our wins, and he knew how to drive the clown car. I can't count how many times we've caught teams offguard with our pace. It's resulted in penalties and touchdowns, just by being fast. Mack hasn't shown he can do even that, let alone be a passing threat.

Unless something magical clicks over the next 6 days, this won't be fun to watch next Saturday.

some Memphis fan pretty much compared him to Michael Jordan. so he's definitely better than Cam Newton.
Geez and to think i thought Mike Hughes was our Cam Newton.

 

[Mikesi]

Still crazy to see UCF surrounded by those schools in the top 10.

It is, isn’t it

 

[UCFKNIGHTS88]

If all the favorites win next week: bama, ou, osu...that means osu the big ten champ will be out of playoff.

This might push for an expanded playoffdoen the road if the big 10 champ is out.

 

[SublimeKnight]

1. Alabama 2. Clemson 3. Notre Dame 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Ohio State 7. UCF 8. Michigan 9. Florida 10. LSU (9-3)

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

This is exactly why UCF can't be #7 this week. Then again they could always leave UGA ahead of UCF even with the scenario

 

[Knight Strength]

The question is whether Michigan drops behind UCF or not. I take what the CFP chairman said honestly that the MM injury is not used against UCF and that UCF continued to dominate the game after his exit from the game. At first I thought Michigan would stay ahead of UCF, but now that LSU has lost that barn-burner to A&M I think UCF climbs to 7. I think UF climbs to 9 ahead of LSU based on the head to head and that the Top 10 looks like the following:

1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Clemson (12-0)
3. Notre Dame (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Oklahoma (11-1)
6. Ohio State (11-1)
7. UCF (12-0)
8. Michigan (10-2)
9. Florida (9-3)
10. LSU (9-3)

SCENARIOS:
Alabama is in the playoff with a win OR a close loss to UGA. With OU and tOSU being so close statistically, the committee would use Bama as a cop out of choosing 1 over the other.

Notre Dame has clinched a playoff spot.

Clemson is in with a win over Pitt. If they lose and both OU, tOSU win they could get left out of the playoff but it's really muddy.

Georgia is in with a win over Bama. A loss will send them to the Sugar Bowl.

Oklahoma is in if they beat Texas and Bama beats Georiga. They could also get in if Pitt

Ohio State is in if they beat Northwestern, Bama beats UGA, and OU loses to Texas

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

The other Nightmare Scenario
UGA, OU, tOSU, and UCF all lose. In that case I say just give Bama a bye into the Championship game.

Projected Bowls if the status quo goes next week. Taking guesses here:
Sugar: #5 UGA vrs #11/12 Penn State?
Rose: #11/12 Washington vrs # 6 Ohio State
Fiesta: #10 LSU vrs #8 Michigan
Peach: #9 Florida vrs #7 UCF

Cotton: #2 Clemson vrs #3 Notre Dame
Orange: #1 Bama vrs #4 Oklahoma

If we're going by what Heather Dinsch tweeted, I don't think the CFI chair said Milton's injury won't be held against UCF. I think he said it will be held against us.

 

[HoseEmDown]

If we're going by what Heather Dinsch tweeted, I don't think the CFI chair said Milton's injury won't be held against UCF. I think he said it will be held against us.

Which goes against them a few years ago or was it last year. Clemson QB Bryant got hurt vs Syracuse and Clemson lost but they said that since he was hurt they didn't hold it against them that much.

 

[Knight Strength]

Which goes against them a few years ago or was it last year. Clemson QB Bryant got hurt vs Syracuse and Clemson lost but they said that since he was hurt they didn't hold it against them that much.

Their criteria for rankings is loaded with inconsistencies. They basically end up going by feel and imagination.

If the no. 4 team in 2017 can win the CFI, couldnt the no. 5 team? Last years CFI and their rankings for it went as wrong as possible. They claim to use the eye test but NOBODY thought we'd beat Auburn? These guys are clowns and the CFI is just designed to be entertainment for the purpose of making money.

This is not sport, its sports entertainment.

 

[Mikesi]

Since it’s UCF the committee has to use Milton’s injury against us. If it’s Clemson, it’s OK because their backup is a 5 Star and Mack is a 3 Star even if he runs for 200 yards.

I’m being facetious obviously

 

[GeniusParks]

The College Football Committee DOES NOT project results. There was nothing in the UCF-USF game to hold against UCF due to the MM injury. UCF won 38-10, a larger margin than the week before.

How UCF looks in the Memphis game would be important in the case OU & tOSU both lose.

Like I have said before, I'm primarily an FSU fan. But what has gained my interest in watching UCF is that your team is more than just a star QB and a hot receiver (which usually is the extent of previous G5 undefeated teams).

UCF has a field of talented backs with McRae, Killins, and Anderson that I'd say is on the same level (if not better) than Scarlett & Perine. You have SEC speed-type receivers all over the place so there isn't just 1 target. And you have playmakers on the D-Line that have started taking over the line of scrimmage in the last few games. If Mack can get the ball to those other players, take care of the football, and use his legs wisely, then this has the same potential to be the same well oiled machine it is with MM at the helm. And my guess is that if MM is able he will assist his team with whatever motivation or advice he can.

If the Status Quo holds, UCF's potential opponents in the Bowl are:
UF (I think this is a great matchup for UCF and can lead to more in-state bragging rights)
LSU (Cover Burrow & Jefferson and 75% of their offense is stopped)
Penn State (They're a different team from Happy Valley)

 

[Poolside Knight]

Ya, with KZ, I felt we had a shot against anyone. Now, I'm not sure if we can even beat Memphis.

I know everyone is saying Mack will have all week with the starters, but those days will go by very quickly, and that's really not much time to develop anything that's much different from what we've already seen.

College football is so QB dependant, which is why on Gameday, Herbie said if Milton were at Miami, they'd be competing for a National Title right now.

KZ was our X-factor. Our fast moving offense has been key to our wins, and he knew how to drive the clown car. I can't count how many times we've caught teams offguard with our pace. It's resulted in penalties and touchdowns, just by being fast. Mack hasn't shown he can do even that, let alone be a passing threat.

Unless something magical clicks over the next 6 days, this won't be fun to watch next Saturday.

Watching the UCF offense with Milton was like watching a video game offense. That first TD drive vs USF & Cincy was lightning quick efficiency

It is going to be one of the biggest what ifs in College Football History, Blue Bloods will laugh at us but UCF had a chance vs anyone with Milton

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

If we're going by what Heather Dinsch tweeted, I don't think the CFI chair said Milton's injury won't be held against UCF. I think he said it will be held against us.

No he didn’t. He said it would be taken into consideration if a team lost with a backup. They don’t try to predict what will happen. Just rank as to what happened already.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

The question is whether Michigan drops behind UCF or not. I take what the CFP chairman said honestly that the MM injury is not used against UCF and that UCF continued to dominate the game after his exit from the game. At first I thought Michigan would stay ahead of UCF, but now that LSU has lost that barn-burner to A&M I think UCF climbs to 7. I think UF climbs to 9 ahead of LSU based on the head to head and that the Top 10 looks like the following:

1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Clemson (12-0)
3. Notre Dame (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Oklahoma (11-1)
6. Ohio State (11-1)
7. UCF (12-0)
8. Michigan (10-2)
9. Florida (9-3)
10. LSU (9-3)

SCENARIOS:
Alabama is in the playoff with a win OR a close loss to UGA. With OU and tOSU being so close statistically, the committee would use Bama as a cop out of choosing 1 over the other.

Notre Dame has clinched a playoff spot.

Clemson is in with a win over Pitt. If they lose and both OU, tOSU win they could get left out of the playoff but it's really muddy.

Georgia is in with a win over Bama. A loss will send them to the Sugar Bowl.

Oklahoma is in if they beat Texas and Bama beats Georiga. They could also get in if Pitt

Ohio State is in if they beat Northwestern, Bama beats UGA, and OU loses to Texas

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

The other Nightmare Scenario
UGA, OU, tOSU, and UCF all lose. In that case I say just give Bama a bye into the Championship game.

Projected Bowls if the status quo goes next week. Taking guesses here:
Sugar: #5 UGA vrs #11/12 Penn State?
Rose: #11/12 Washington vrs # 6 Ohio State
Fiesta: #10 LSU vrs #8 Michigan
Peach: #9 Florida vrs #7 UCF

Cotton: #2 Clemson vrs #3 Notre Dame
Orange: #1 Bama vrs #4 Oklahoma

If Clemson loses and we win Clemson guaranteed would be out. They can’t have us beat Pitt by 31 and a team in that would have lost to them be in.

 

[Mikesi]

Blue Bloods will laugh at us but UCF had a chance vs anyone with Milton

Blue bloods can laugh all that they want. We were gong to lose eventually and now we have the perfect out. Perfect!!

I mean almost perfect Unfortunately, it took an injury to our star QB

In the end, who cares about the haters

Notre Dame, Florida, Michigan,LSU, Ohio State, NGEbraska, etc all had their asses handed to them at some point this year or soon will. We have that too.

 

[kb851]

If these four things happen...

UCF beats Memphis
Texas beats OK
Northwestern beats OSU
Alabama beats Georgia

UCF will make the playoffs and play Alabama.

All four must happen.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

If these four things happen...

UCF beats Memphis
Texas beats OK
Northwestern beats OSU
Alabama beats Georgia

UCF will make the playoffs and play Alabama.

All four must happen.

If Pitt beats Clemson we slide into 3rd and play ND. Best case scenario.

 

[PewPew-n-CrossFit]

http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html
Bias free, this is where we should be ranked 6th but I expect us to be ranked 7th

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html
Bias free, this is where we should be ranked 6th but I expect us to be ranked 7th

Watching halftime of a game yesterday, can’t remember game but think was Michigan game, one guys prediction had us at 6 and another at 7.

 

[PowerEye101]

http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html
Bias free, this is where we should be ranked 6th but I expect us to be ranked 7th

UCF missed #5 by only .0003 points less than Oklahoma. Top 4 is a done deal after the Memphis win. UCF would make a unbiased playoff.

 

[GeniusParks]

If these four things happen...

UCF beats Memphis
Texas beats OK
Northwestern beats OSU
Alabama beats Georgia

UCF will make the playoffs and play Alabama.

All four must happen.

Correct. And if this happens either the Peach or Fiesta would be very happy b/c one of them probably gets to host an Ohio State vrs Oklahoma bowl game with the other game getting UF and Michigan (I think).

 

[Mikesi]

We are 7th in the USA Today coaches poll

What’s the highest that we have ever been?

Does anyone think we should be higher?
Just asking

TBH, it’s kind of cool seeing us up there

 

[GeniusParks]

#7 is the fairest spot for UCF as of right now, but I will see this. Compared to OU & tOSU, UCF hasn't given up 50 points in a came all season. The most a team got on them was Temple (40). For all the crap UCF has taken about the defense, it does have a pulse.

 

[DrPhillipsKnight]

We are 7th in the USA Today coaches poll

What’s the highest that we have ever been?

Does anyone think we should be higher?
Just asking

TBH, it’s kind of cool seeing us up there

I mean if the CFP follows the same top 10, a northwestern and Texas win followed by a Alabama blow out win could jump us to 4. Fuuuuu we are unlucky

 

[Mikesi]

I’m hating to have to use this next week

 

[PowerEye101]

Don't like the qualifications that are being put on UCF to have a shot at the CFI. UCF should be in the Top 4 right now based on winning percentage. That would be 100% for those keeping score.

 

[KnightNite]

If these four things happen...

UCF beats Memphis
Texas beats OK
Northwestern beats OSU
Alabama beats Georgia

UCF will make the playoffs and play Alabama.

All four must happen.

We've been saying we want Bama, but I don't think we do anymore. This would have made an awesome storyline - 2 Hawaians who played each other in high school facing off in the playoffs... Now Alabama will just destroy us.

 

[Square Knight]

Little disappointing seeing people question our team with Mack at QB. I have NO doubt that UCF will win the AAC Champ game vs Memphis by 14+ and honestly think we will win by 21+.

We have too many quality receivers...someone is gonna be open. Because of our focus on downfield throws by Heuple, even Milton's completion percentage is lower this year. Mack showed he can hit those throws against USF. One of those long incompletions was only because of a great play by the defender.

Mack also hit two very good RPO bubble screens (one to each side of the field), and one or two of his incompletions were because of dropped balls.

 

[Knight_of_Parrish]

UCF (yes, UCF) is in if Bama beats UGA, Texas beats OU, and NW beats tOSU (call this the Knightmare Scenario).

The other Nightmare Scenario
UGA, OU, tOSU, and UCF all lose. In that case I say just give Bama a bye into the Championship game.

According to 538, UCF is the definite favorite under the "Knightmare Scenario" with a 32% chance of getting in. GA with 28% and Texas with 25%. Cant see the committee giving GA another chance to fail or a three-loss team jumping to #4.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

If UGA loses to Bama, there is zero chance they get in. They would need to be 4th and set up a rematch with Bama. If it was a close game, the CFI is not risking Bama losing in the semi final to a team they just beat.

 

[GeniusParks]

AP poll came out: 7

There was considerable gap b/w Michigan and UCF with only a handful of voters keeping Michigan above UCF

However, some guys like McMurphy (#10) and Williams (#17!) need their voting credentials removed. Looking at the AP folks that put UCF 8, 9, or 10 some of them have 3 Loss TEXAS & Washington, LSU, Florida ahead of us. They're trying to project which the CFP Committee doesn't do.

Honestly, I have to say the CFP Committee has actually done a fair job at ranking UCF so far this season (albeit they've had to with all the upsets to 2-loss teams). 7 is where UCF will be on Tuesday.

As for Bama, it's unlikely any team is going to beat them this year, but I'll say this that UCF would have a good chance to put up at least 30 in the game to keep that streak going. If you can put up that many points you're never really out of any game.

 

[anon_ki59ERik4csguoSd]

Little disappointing seeing people question our team with Mack at QB. I have NO doubt that UCF will win the AAC Champ game vs Memphis by 14+ and honestly think we will win by 21+.

We have too many quality receivers...someone is gonna be open. Because of our focus on downfield throws by Heuple, even Milton's completion percentage is lower this year. Mack showed he can hit those throws against USF. One of those long incompletions was only because of a great play by the defender.

Mack also hit two very good RPO bubble screens (one to each side of the field), and one or two of his incompletions were because of dropped balls.

MM has been injured in some form since before the Memphis game. Even after sitting out for ECU, you could see in his play that he was being hesitant and second guessing his runs. Still, he produced the big passes when needed.

Mack was at what, 30% completion at the USF game? He's played against 2 struggling defenses, and has no passing TDs. He had one nice completion downfield against USF. One. On top of that, he can't run tempo.

You might feel disappointed that we're not all as confident as you are in Mack's ability, but from our point of view, he really hasn't done anything except hand off.

 

[Square Knight]

MM has been injured in some form since before the Memphis game. Even after sitting out for ECU, you could see in his play that he was being hesitant and second guessing his runs. Still, he produced the big passes when needed.

Mack was at what, 30% completion at the USF game? He's played against 2 struggling defenses, and has no passing TDs. He had one nice completion downfield against USF. One. On top of that, he can't run tempo.

You might feel disappointed that we're not all as confident as you are in Mack's ability, but from our point of view, he really hasn't done anything except hand off.

Mack was 5 for 14...35%. Let's say that the USF DB doesn't make a fantastic play on one long pass, and just one of the two clear drops by UCF receivers is caught...now your at 7 for 14...or 50%. One or two attempts were just passes out of bounds to keep from getting sacked. I do remember 2-3 throws where Mack clearly missed the receiver...but I have seen KZ do exactly the same thing in multiple games.

Maybe it is just my perception...or a positive outlook personality, but I have no doubt that we can win the game convincingly vs Memphis. I also think we can be competitive with many teams currently in the Top 10 that we would likely play in a NY6 Bowl. Oklahoma would give us the most trouble because of the insane running ability of their QB. Alabama would be very difficult with Tua for the same reason, but I don't expect UCF to get into the Top 4.