Scenario to send UCF to the Playoff

[GeniusParks]

1. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and UCF all win out.
2. Texas or Iowa State wins the Big 12 & OU/WVU each have 2 loses somewhere along the way.
3. Wazzu loses either the Apple Cup or in the PAC-12 Title Game
4. LSU loses to Texas A&M

If all of this happens, UCF will be ranked no lower than #5 and will face #6 Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The ideal scenario for the playoff committee is that the Top 4 continue to win and if the other 3 items happen, they can naturally move UCF up while claiming they were given consideration and can even rank them in the final poll ahead of UGA because it wouldn't matter since the two would play in the Peach Bowl.

But....here is the new biggest game of the Year

Northwestern vrs Michigan - If Northwestern wins that game it's sets up a fascinating debate for the 4th spot b/w

1. UCF (Undefeated)
2. Michigan (upset by Northwestern - 2 loses)
3. Georgia (beaten by Alabama in the SECCG with 2 losses)
4. OU/WVU with 2 losses with one of those teams failing to make the Big 12 Title Game and the other losing to Texas or Iowa State in the Big 12 Title Game
5. Wazzu (2 loses)

In this scenario, UGA/Michigan have the edge over the other 2 loss teams, but would the playoff committee put UGA against Alabama after they just got beat in the SEC Title Game (especially if the game was lopsided)? This would make the SEC Title game look meaningless and send a bad message. But how can they justify keeping Michigan #4 after losing it's own Conference game?
This is where I think UCF would get the nod by default. Any other selection wouldn't make sense. OU/WVU would have been exposed with the same defensive weaknesses as UCF and as bad as UCF's schedule has supposedly been Wazzu in the PAC-12 is in just as bad a position with 2 losses.

UCF doesn't want chaos at the Top of the Big 3 because those teams will never drop far enough to take advantage so they might as well win out. ND is taking care of Cuse and give UCF a 3 game cushion in the loss column of all P5 teams behind them, and Michigan will take care of Ohio State (whom UCF should already be ranked ahead of after today) to remove the Buckeyes once and for all.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Pitt will be playing Clemson in the ACC Championship.

 

[Knight Strength]

These threads are exhausting. It's not happening guys. The system is designed to allow the use of subjective criteria like "most deserving" SPECIFICALLY to eliminate "G5" teams. Even if UCF were the #1 in every objective measure, we still wouldn't be invited.

 

[Knight Strength]

I do appreciate the positivity though

 

[goodknightfl]

The only way is UCF wins out and everyone else has 4 losses.

 

[Mikesi]

3 words

Fiesta Bowl

McCrae

 

[Nashville_Knight]

1. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and UCF all win out.
2. Texas or Iowa State wins the Big 12 & OU/WVU each have 2 loses somewhere along the way.
3. Wazzu loses either the Apple Cup or in the PAC-12 Title Game
4. LSU loses to Texas A&M

If all of this happens, UCF will be ranked no lower than #5 and will face #6 Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The ideal scenario for the playoff committee is that the Top 4 continue to win and if the other 3 items happen, they can naturally move UCF up while claiming they were given consideration and can even rank them in the final poll ahead of UGA because it wouldn't matter since the two would play in the Peach Bowl.

But....here is the new biggest game of the Year

Northwestern vrs Michigan - If Northwestern wins that game it's sets up a fascinating debate for the 4th spot b/w

1. UCF (Undefeated)
2. Michigan (upset by Northwestern - 2 loses)
3. Georgia (beaten by Alabama in the SECCG with 2 losses)
4. OU/WVU with 2 losses with one of those teams failing to make the Big 12 Title Game and the other losing to Texas or Iowa State in the Big 12 Title Game
5. Wazzu (2 loses)

In this scenario, UGA/Michigan have the edge over the other 2 loss teams, but would the playoff committee put UGA against Alabama after they just got beat in the SEC Title Game (especially if the game was lopsided)? This would make the SEC Title game look meaningless and send a bad message. But how can they justify keeping Michigan #4 after losing it's own Conference game?
This is where I think UCF would get the nod by default. Any other selection wouldn't make sense. OU/WVU would have been exposed with the same defensive weaknesses as UCF and as bad as UCF's schedule has supposedly been Wazzu in the PAC-12 is in just as bad a position with 2 losses.

UCF doesn't want chaos at the Top of the Big 3 because those teams will never drop far enough to take advantage so they might as well win out. ND is taking care of Cuse and give UCF a 3 game cushion in the loss column of all P5 teams behind them, and Michigan will take care of Ohio State (whom UCF should already be ranked ahead of after today) to remove the Buckeyes once and for all.

Poppycock

 

[Poolside Knight]

Little Marco *antitrust’* cough

 

[Shark19]

Meh, did you guys see the plastic Dr Pepper trophy on the telecast? Not worth the aggravation of having to grovel to the old P5 farts.

Did you know we are now tied for 2nd for longest 1A winning streak since 1936? That alone should be a ticket in....Dr Pepper scam.

 

[Knight Strength]

Really? Doesn't Oklahoma have a 35-40 game streak and FSU have a 29 game streak? I'm sure there's a couple more between 23 and 29 too.

 

[hendu1976fl]

OU with 47. I thought it was 56, but the run occurred between 53-57. Not sure about FSU. Miami had a pretty good run in the early 2000's.

 

[Knightlife77]

Meh, did you guys see the plastic Dr Pepper trophy on the telecast? Not worth the aggravation of having to grovel to the old P5 farts.

Did you know we are now tied for 2nd for longest 1A winning streak since 1936? That alone should be a ticket in....Dr Pepper scam.

I think you are referring to when they said the streak of scoring 30 of more points in a row.

 

[GeniusParks]

Poppycock

How is it poppycock?

Right now it looks very, very likely that Bama, Clemson, and ND will all win their remaining games.

The Big 12 is in danger of playing themselves out of the playoff thanks to their "Championship Game". Okie State knocking off WVU helped because it gave them a 2nd loss. Now there's a team to cheer for against OU to hand them their 2nd loss, which if that happens, OU won't make the Big 12 Title game which should end their plaoff chances with 2 losses. And even if OU wins that game, Texas showed that they could play with them. Texas winning the Big 12 would eliminate both WVU (if not already) & OU and an undefeated UCF team would be ranked ahead of them both.

The PAC-12 hasn't been as strong as thought. Wazzu has two games remaining against Washington (Apple Cup) & Utah, both ranked teams. It's possible Wazzu could lose to Washington where they wouldn't even get to the PAC12 title Game, ending their hopes with 2 losses, or they could get beat by Utah. An undefeated UCF > 2 loss Wazzu in just about every scenario.

Ohio State shouldn't be anywhere near the playoff. If they beat Michigan & Northwestern and get in, the CFP will never recover. How do you let a team in that gets drilled by 29 points? It shouldn't matter as long as Michigan takes care of business. The bigger issue will be Michigan vrs Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship game. I didn't realize Michigan only squeaked by 20-17 when they played a few weeks ago, so NW might have a decent shot in that game to pull the upset and hand Michigan a 2nd loss.

Texas A&M has an offense. LSU does not, but plays good defense. I think A&M can score enough points to win a 24-21 game and hand LSU it's 3rd loss removing them once and for all.

Then there's Bama vrs UGA. If Bama wins this game big, how fair is it to let Georgia back its way into the playoff getting another opportunity to get drilled by Bama? The SEC Title game has to mean something.

If the above happens and UCF takes care of business, I think that forces the committee's hand to put them in. UCF is better than a 2 loss PAC 12 or Big 12 team that doesn't win it's own conference. If the committee puts UGA or Michigan over UCF after dropping their Conference Championship games, that will make it clear that Conference Championship games don't matter and send a very, very bad signal that a team can back their way into the playoff despite losing on the last week of the season.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

If the committee had any interest in allowing UCF to participate we’d be in the 4-7 range already. We are at #11 for a reason

 

[GeniusParks]

Guys, it could very well happen. Even your detractors on Twitter are starting to come around to the idea of UCF in the playoff based on the scenario above. The fact UCF was on the verge of overtaking LSU in the AP Poll says a lot.

Joel Klatt has been on record this year saying UCF shouldn't be anywhere near the Top 4 or in the playoff discussion. Now he tweets this:

Joel Klatt‏Verified account@joelklatt 2h2 hours ago
- Pitt has gotten so much better on Offense this season...great job by OC Shawn Watson
- Alabama should not get a pass for their awful first half vs an FCS team on Nov. 17th
- Bama, Clem, Northwestern, Someone other than OU, and Utah win their Conference Champ games and UCF goes

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

Interested to see what the Committee does now that UCF has 4 wins against teams with at least 7 wins. That’s 3 more than either Oklahoma or Ohio State have and 1 more than Michigan.

 

[knight_tracker]

Interested to see what the Committee does now that UCF has 4 wins against teams with at least 7 wins. That’s 3 more than either Oklahoma or Ohio State have and 1 more than Michigan.

Ohio State looked bad they can't stop the run. They are very overrated.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Guys, it could very well happen. Even your detractors on Twitter are starting to come around to the idea of UCF in the playoff based on the scenario above. The fact UCF was on the verge of overtaking LSU in the AP Poll says a lot.

Joel Klatt has been on record this year saying UCF shouldn't be anywhere near the Top 4 or in the playoff discussion. Now he tweets this:

Joel Klatt‏Verified account@joelklatt 2h2 hours ago
- Pitt has gotten so much better on Offense this season...great job by OC Shawn Watson
- Alabama should not get a pass for their awful first half vs an FCS team on Nov. 17th
- Bama, Clem, Northwestern, Someone other than OU, and Utah win their Conference Champ games and UCF goes

You keep overlooking the fact that it’s a dozen old white guys, who are ADs at Power 5 schools, that pick the four invitational teams. It’s not like it’s an unbiased randomly selected people from across America making the picks. It’s not happening

 

[UCFandMizzou]

While very unlikely to happen, I think there is a very straight-forward way for UCF to get in.

I think if Pitt somehow beats Clemson for the ACC title UCF has an incredible chance to in. Obviously OU and Wazzu losing would help, but I'm not sure we would need any more help if Pitt somehow wins that game.

 

[firm_bizzle]

These threads are exhausting. It's not happening guys. The system is designed to allow the use of subjective criteria like "most deserving" SPECIFICALLY to eliminate "G5" teams. Even if UCF were the #1 in every objective measure, we still wouldn't be invited.

Oh it's happening and you better be ready for it. You may be tired of #winning but I'm not.

 

[Once a Knight...]

It certainly isn't happening this year, but it was nice to see the AP move us up to #8 (obviously they were watching and not just reading a box score). Problem we have is that none of our last two remaining games will be against ranked teams: USF (7-4) then Houston (9-3 if they win) or Memphis (8-4 if they win). Houston MIGHT be able to squeak back into the Top 25 in AP/Coaches poll with a dominating win over Memphis, but really don't see that happening. Best is to hope for Pitt to win the ACC, and SMU to win their last game to get bowl eligible at 6-6.

 

[Knight Strength]

Oh it's happening and you better be ready for it. You may be tired of #winning but I'm not.

Ok cool charge on!

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

Never underestimate the potential for chaos in the last 2 weeks of the season.