1. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and UCF all win out.
2. Texas or Iowa State wins the Big 12 & OU/WVU each have 2 loses somewhere along the way.
3. Wazzu loses either the Apple Cup or in the PAC-12 Title Game
4. LSU loses to Texas A&M
If all of this happens, UCF will be ranked no lower than #5 and will face #6 Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The ideal scenario for the playoff committee is that the Top 4 continue to win and if the other 3 items happen, they can naturally move UCF up while claiming they were given consideration and can even rank them in the final poll ahead of UGA because it wouldn't matter since the two would play in the Peach Bowl.
But....here is the new biggest game of the Year
Northwestern vrs Michigan - If Northwestern wins that game it's sets up a fascinating debate for the 4th spot b/w
1. UCF (Undefeated)
2. Michigan (upset by Northwestern - 2 loses)
3. Georgia (beaten by Alabama in the SECCG with 2 losses)
4. OU/WVU with 2 losses with one of those teams failing to make the Big 12 Title Game and the other losing to Texas or Iowa State in the Big 12 Title Game
5. Wazzu (2 loses)
In this scenario, UGA/Michigan have the edge over the other 2 loss teams, but would the playoff committee put UGA against Alabama after they just got beat in the SEC Title Game (especially if the game was lopsided)? This would make the SEC Title game look meaningless and send a bad message. But how can they justify keeping Michigan #4 after losing it's own Conference game?
This is where I think UCF would get the nod by default. Any other selection wouldn't make sense. OU/WVU would have been exposed with the same defensive weaknesses as UCF and as bad as UCF's schedule has supposedly been Wazzu in the PAC-12 is in just as bad a position with 2 losses.
UCF doesn't want chaos at the Top of the Big 3 because those teams will never drop far enough to take advantage so they might as well win out. ND is taking care of Cuse and give UCF a 3 game cushion in the loss column of all P5 teams behind them, and Michigan will take care of Ohio State (whom UCF should already be ranked ahead of after today) to remove the Buckeyes once and for all.
2. Texas or Iowa State wins the Big 12 & OU/WVU each have 2 loses somewhere along the way.
3. Wazzu loses either the Apple Cup or in the PAC-12 Title Game
4. LSU loses to Texas A&M
If all of this happens, UCF will be ranked no lower than #5 and will face #6 Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The ideal scenario for the playoff committee is that the Top 4 continue to win and if the other 3 items happen, they can naturally move UCF up while claiming they were given consideration and can even rank them in the final poll ahead of UGA because it wouldn't matter since the two would play in the Peach Bowl.
But....here is the new biggest game of the Year
Northwestern vrs Michigan - If Northwestern wins that game it's sets up a fascinating debate for the 4th spot b/w
1. UCF (Undefeated)
2. Michigan (upset by Northwestern - 2 loses)
3. Georgia (beaten by Alabama in the SECCG with 2 losses)
4. OU/WVU with 2 losses with one of those teams failing to make the Big 12 Title Game and the other losing to Texas or Iowa State in the Big 12 Title Game
5. Wazzu (2 loses)
In this scenario, UGA/Michigan have the edge over the other 2 loss teams, but would the playoff committee put UGA against Alabama after they just got beat in the SEC Title Game (especially if the game was lopsided)? This would make the SEC Title game look meaningless and send a bad message. But how can they justify keeping Michigan #4 after losing it's own Conference game?
This is where I think UCF would get the nod by default. Any other selection wouldn't make sense. OU/WVU would have been exposed with the same defensive weaknesses as UCF and as bad as UCF's schedule has supposedly been Wazzu in the PAC-12 is in just as bad a position with 2 losses.
UCF doesn't want chaos at the Top of the Big 3 because those teams will never drop far enough to take advantage so they might as well win out. ND is taking care of Cuse and give UCF a 3 game cushion in the loss column of all P5 teams behind them, and Michigan will take care of Ohio State (whom UCF should already be ranked ahead of after today) to remove the Buckeyes once and for all.