Seriously, a 4 point favorite against ecu?
- Thread starter beelit47
- Start date
Don't jinx us and speak haughtily to the Vegas gods. They're more right than they are wrong imo.
What does one week spread have to do with another? We are 7-10 ATS the past 2 years. The only real road win we have over the past 2 years was over Temple. It’s not a gimmie.
At this point we know what were up against with ahlers. He is 36, fat as heupel, but throws good at times. I expect us to take over defensively at some point and gash them with runs
From a betting standpoint, this college football season has been bonkers. The transfer portal turned the betting world on its head in the early season, not even worth betting anymore until 3-4 games in. I always start with $1000 in a Bovada account, I’ve been almost all the way down and almost out, but back up so far with just over $1200 in the account. I think we beat ECU by a at least a TD, most likely more. I’m betting the house and if I lose oh well, 2022 CFB season of betting is drunk, but I’m not passing up a -5 vs ECU.
I think we are grooving, OL seems to have figured it out and it’s no secret that’s why JRP is ripping (he actually has time to make a throw). Harvey is also ripping, Hudson has synched and WRs are not dropping balls. Yeah, the team is jiving just in time for conference play and with the defense continuing to hold opponents to 20 points or leas in the last 9-10 games dating back to last year, that’s not a small sample size. I think we win big, 17+ points.
I think we are grooving, OL seems to have figured it out and it’s no secret that’s why JRP is ripping (he actually has time to make a throw). Harvey is also ripping, Hudson has synched and WRs are not dropping balls. Yeah, the team is jiving just in time for conference play and with the defense continuing to hold opponents to 20 points or leas in the last 9-10 games dating back to last year, that’s not a small sample size. I think we win big, 17+ points.
Im with you, part of the reason were not ranked is bc of all these weekday games. Nobody has seen past two games where we have looked legit. Road games are tough but i think our lines are better than their lines. Our skill guys are better than theres. Ahlers can ball but i think jrp plays well enough. We win 34-21
ucf has consistently had slow first quarters…on the road that can get you in trouble
1-4 last year on the road. Losing record overall on the road the last three years. Only road game this year was against a below .500 FAU.
wonder if this is the latest UCF has gone in a season before playing a game outside the State of Florida …October 22 crazy
I have a rule to never bet on UCF games, like I’m too close and also would rather enjoy my game without a bet on it. But anytime Vegas has UCF this f*d up and it’s within a score against a team you are way better than or like this week had a RIDICULOUS o/u of 46 against Temple, I’m thinking about it. If you didn’t see that o/u and not scratch your head, idk about you, don’t gamble. Every time we play FAU Vegas has it messed up at -10 or less and I always bet the account, easy win. However, Heupel ruined betting on UCF games, he seemed to always lose ATS and his inability to close out games would hit or miss the o/u or the spread. Last year Gus was handcuffed with Keene. Vegas thought we were better than we were based off the past, Keene always delivered an under and a loss ATS.
Anyways, this line to me is crazy. ECU isn’t great, we are clicking. Away game is only thing that I consider a challenge in this one, but Gus isn’t Heupel.
Anyways, this line to me is crazy. ECU isn’t great, we are clicking. Away game is only thing that I consider a challenge in this one, but Gus isn’t Heupel.
Can't overlook ECU at all. Rival, away, history.
They are better than Temple,
They are better than Temple,
ECU is a few plays away from being 6-1. They are no slouch.
Being this is the first real away game this won't be easy. It will be packed and loud and nothing the team has been in yet. Put the ball in the endzone early!
The team is going to be in for a wakeup call in B12, outside of maybe Cincinnati, the team hasn't played in hostile environments for years. Have to go back to 2016 against Michigan for anything on Oklahoma/Texas level.
Even for a seasoned staff and players, you can't say Tennessee 101k fans weren't a factor in disrupting Alabama.
Heupel was 18-18 ATS. Gus is 9-10. I don’t usually bet on UCF. Exception this year was against SMU I took UCF -3
Didn’t a Hurricane player say he preferred away games because of the crowd?
Yeah. They are generally pretty good over a long period. If you could just bet for or against a coach or team covering or not covering a spread over a long period there would be a bunch of people making money off of sports betting. Even the cow coach is 14-14 ATS since he arrived.
I tried to go lurk an ecu forum but didn't find much. One I did find the fans were complaining about attendance. Said the Memphis game was sparse crowd.
They aren't 50,000 strong anymore it sounds like. I imagine a couple early Td's by UCF and the crowd noise will leave.
Here's hoping for another 70 point score for UCF and the last time we play the Pirates in conference.
They aren't 50,000 strong anymore it sounds like. I imagine a couple early Td's by UCF and the crowd noise will leave.
Here's hoping for another 70 point score for UCF and the last time we play the Pirates in conference.
That's a bummer
We had a great rivalry with them for a few years. I always liked playing them.
Agree, UCF-ECU series thru multiple conferences have been entertaining.
But, really would like to see UCF slam dunk ECU one more time.
But, really would like to see UCF slam dunk ECU one more time.
Weird stat…how many teams have we actually played who finished 0.500 + 3?
None this year. Last year we played 2 and lost them both. 2020 we played 4 and those were the 4 losses.
That stat is nonsense. As one reply points out, 8-5 is not "3 games over .500," 10-3 is. Who decides that this is the bar, and how many college teams actually do meet this bar?
However, at a high level, yes, we haven't won a big game in a while. We all know that. Also, we (and most teams) don't have opportunity to play 10-win teams very many times in a season, and statistically, most of those matchups across the league are losses (10/13 of the time, or 76% of the time).
However, at a high level, yes, we haven't won a big game in a while. We all know that. Also, we (and most teams) don't have opportunity to play 10-win teams very many times in a season, and statistically, most of those matchups across the league are losses (10/13 of the time, or 76% of the time).
8-5 is 3 games over. 5-5 is .500 3 more wins is 3 games over.
I agree it's a nonsense stat for this year, since there isn't really enough games to qualify many teams for 3 games over, but it is relevant for the previous year to show we've struggled against the best teams on our schedule.
I take back my initial post, this ecu team should have beaten nc state and have played alot of people tight. -4/5 seems right from a betting standpoint though i see this being a game where we put up more than 30 and our defense holds them around 21-24
2020 most teams lost 3-4 games for the schedule. Many vs teams that would boost their record. UCF finishes at worst 8-5 and possibly 9-4 with full schedule that year. It’s a cute little stat, but kind of meaningless this year so far.
It’s meaningless for this year yes. But 9-4 and 8-5 is not where we need to be playing in the AAC. We were a 2nd tier AAC team in 2020-2021. To change that in 2022 we’ve gotta beat Cincy and Tulane this year. That’s all this stat is saying.
Seeing 5 point favorites now. So figuring in home field we're about a TD better? Seems fair based on what we've seen so far from both teams. Hope UCF can sustain this offensive momentum we saw in the 2nd half against SMU and the Temple game.
Cincy is only a 3 point favorite @SMU.
Cincy is only a 3 point favorite @SMU.
If you give any weight to Sagarin predictor we would be an 11 point favorite on a neutral field and 9 point favorite on the road. So I think from that standpoint it is a bit low. However the last time we actually left the state of Florida was literally 10 games ago against SMU last season. And it didn’t exactly go well. So I think they are taking a wait and see approach with the line.
So after doing some googling, apparently this is argued about frequently and people get angry and say "you can't change the outcome of games that have already been played!!" So I'll concede that my interpretation is not inline with what the majority thinks it means, but I'll also say that it's even more meaningless a stat then to call it this way at the end of the season where one could also say "there aren't any more games to be played (to get to .500)," and at the end of a 12 game season, in college football, we think of 6-6 as being a .500 season, not 5-5.
It’s not a term that’s used much in football, but other sports with longer seasons use it all the time. In baseball you’re 55-45 and you’re 10 games over .500.
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