No idea what this is saying but 1-1 is .500 or winning 50 % of games. Thats what .500 means. No one compares how many games left to a winning percentage. Just look at standings in most sports. They give you current winning percentage.
Seriously, a 4 point favorite against ecu?
- Thread starter beelit47
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It’s kind of pointless in football with so few games. Also high variance. For instance we lost to a Tulsa team 3 games over .500 (6-3) in 2020. But winning against them would have been a win over a team 1 game over .500 (5-4). Also we have had wins along the line over teams that finished 1 or 2 games above .500 that had we lost would have been 3 or 4 games above .500. So you are always going to lose a higher percentage of those games than you win simply based on your game result being part of the record. And with so few games played, a pretty significant part.
Of course all sports use winning percentage. I just don’t think you hear a football announcer refer to a 3-2 team as a game over .500 often. A baseball team that’s 80 games into their season will hear it all the time.
Yes, also nobody has ever beaten a team which finished undefeated.
I remember hearing "you beat a 4-loss Auburn team". Well kind of, except one of those was the loss we gave them, so you can't count that one against us, right?
I am glad the spread isn't very big. The players need to be kept humble for as long as possible. Cocky teams lose games.
The spread is appropriate. We suck at road games. ECU has a QB who has been there for like 10 years. And ECU is a pretty decent team, given their close losses.
Sounds like some CFP made up metric that would only apply to G5 schools. How many 8+ win teams did you beat?
I mean it does tell a story doesn't it?
Record against teams that finished 3 games over .500:
2017: 4-0
2018: 4-1
2019: 2-2
2020: 0-4
2021: 0-2
I'm just glad all this kind of talk hopefully goes away in the b12.
"You are what your record says you are," has not really been true in college football, and worst on the G5.
But even the story it tells, as Jeremy was trying to say, isn't consistent because if we had beaten one of those 8-5 teams then they'd have been 7-6 and would not have counted in the metric.
"You are what your record says you are," has not really been true in college football, and worst on the G5.
But even the story it tells, as Jeremy was trying to say, isn't consistent because if we had beaten one of those 8-5 teams then they'd have been 7-6 and would not have counted in the metric.
It’s misleading because it will always indicate a well below .500 record on average. Because winning a game decreases opponent winning percentage, and losing increases it.
Just take 2017 for example. We beat Navy and they were 7-6. So they don’t qualify for the stat in a win. If we had lost and they were 8-5 they would have. So this game can only ever count in the loss column. SMU 2017 also finished 7-6 that year. If we lose they are 8-5. Again, only qualifying for the “stat” in the case where we lose. Temple 2017. You guessed it 7-6 but would have been 8-5 with a loss.
Over time because of this phenomenon, the average record in these games will skew well below a .500 winning percentage. Which is why it’s not really that useful of a stat. Also, throwing out the unlikely scenario where a team just never loses, I think the preference would be losing to “good” teams over “bad” teams anyway.
The preference for UCF is not losing at all. Yes it's an arbitrary point to pick, but if you picked our record against teams with winning records it would tell essentially the same story. Pointing out that a 7-6 team would've been 8-5 if they beat us, well no shit. You can say that about every game on our schedule, our opponent's record would be one game better if they beat us. You're too hung up on the number that was chosen, and not picking up the overall point that we've been clearly inferior to the top teams on our schedule in the past couple years, which needs to change this year.
I think the real point is, the AAC usually only has 1 great team and then a bunch of ok teams. Then our OOC schedule hasnt had a bunch of good teams either. Pitt was decent but we’ve played teams in down years. GT and UL. If they were good, even a loss to us and they’d be well over .500. UL beats us and still a roughly .500 team. Doesn’t help perception.
Sure. Just pointing out that It is a useless stat. I showed you why. 3 games in 2017 could only go in the loss column. Look at Pitt 2019. They were 8-5 by virtue of winning the game. Otherwise 7-6 and it doesn’t count. Tulsa 2020 was 6-3 by virtue of winning the game otherwise 5-4. SMU 2021 was 8-4 by virtue of winning the game otherwise 7-5. It happens literally every year. Which is why looking at a “3 games over .500” opponent record is asinine.
The teams we beat losing 3,4,5 other times is the point. Its not losing to us. Its losing the other games that shows we didn’t beat a good team.
Have to agree. GT was falling apart at the seems and a coaching change motivated that team. Not sure how good SMU is either. UL is terrible and a game I wish they had back. I think it's funny though that by Beating Temple and ECU it might land us in the top 25 (no votes after beating SMU). They have a lot to prove still and the next 4 games will tell the season. Boneyard at night isn't easy. I been up for games before and it can get pretty loud (especially for a team that's only played in Florida all year). Hopefully we smash them!!
So removing the sc state game here is how weve performed:
loserville we were 3.5 favorite and lost by 6
FAU we were 9.5 favorite and won by 26
GT we were 19.5 favorite and won by 17
SMU we were 3.5 favorites and won by 22 (could have been 28 without the lame td at end)
Temple we were 23.5 favorites and won by 57
So far we are 3-2 ATS but some of our wins have far exceeded the spread. Offense was stagnant in the games where we didnt cover.
loserville we were 3.5 favorite and lost by 6
FAU we were 9.5 favorite and won by 26
GT we were 19.5 favorite and won by 17
SMU we were 3.5 favorites and won by 22 (could have been 28 without the lame td at end)
Temple we were 23.5 favorites and won by 57
So far we are 3-2 ATS but some of our wins have far exceeded the spread. Offense was stagnant in the games where we didnt cover.
I don't know how many ways there are to slice it, but we haven't been as good as we'd like to be. We've been in the pack for 3 years. We beat the teams worse than us and lost to the teams better.
What's always been frustrating about big-time college football is that the bar is perfection. If an NFL team is .750 you're looking at homefield advantage a lot of years and an amazing season. Around here, and in any p5 conference, we'd be lamenting the games we lost and watching the CCG on TV. There's never any room for any team to be "in the hunt."
What's always been frustrating about big-time college football is that the bar is perfection. If an NFL team is .750 you're looking at homefield advantage a lot of years and an amazing season. Around here, and in any p5 conference, we'd be lamenting the games we lost and watching the CCG on TV. There's never any room for any team to be "in the hunt."
‘Meaningless stat’ …it is a ucf fan account . The point is we haven’t beaten an above average team in a while and it needs to change . Our fans wonder why we get no mention or buzz this is one of the reasons
So Vegas not as good as people think. But they don’t want to be. They are trying to make money. Not be right.
Read the line is up to 5
Also according to ECU fans, Ahlers is playing with an injury that they think could get worse with some hits.
He is sooo inconsistent passing, but has always run well.
BTW, we have a 6 game win streak against them so Ahlers has only beaten us 3 times.
Also according to ECU fans, Ahlers is playing with an injury that they think could get worse with some hits.
He is sooo inconsistent passing, but has always run well.
BTW, we have a 6 game win streak against them so Ahlers has only beaten us 3 times.
Right Vegas will put lines in play that will entice you to bet.
Ahlers might be the 3rd best QB UCF has seen this year. He's been average at best for the 15 years he's been at ECU. What worries me more is that RB they have that has multiple 100+ games on the ground. Our D-Line is solid but if he gets going it will help Ahlers (who can be turnover prone).
I agree with the assessment that we haven’t beaten a good team in a while. But the stat is misleading. For the reasons I outlined.
We were 1-4 straight up and against the spread in road games last year. And the win/cover was against a historically bad Temple. We are in a prove it mode right now that we can actually travel and play well.
So coming off the 4OT win, I'm wondering if ECU will be a little gassed or pumped up?
A few info nuggets.
ECU defense is giving up an avg of 24.6 points a game
Rushing yards allowed per game is 109.
Passing yards allowed per game is 278.
Offensively
Rushing yards: 165/game
Passing yards: 309/game
#11 (Isaiah Winstead) is their top receiver at 719 yards this season
#2 (Keaton Mitchell is their leading rusher at 582 yards this season
Wins against:
Old Dominion (3-3, Sun Belt)
Campbell (4-2, Big South)
USF (1-6, AAC)
Memphis (4-3, AAC)
Losses Against:
NC State (5-2, ACC)
Tulane (5-1, AAC)
Navy (2-4, AAC)
Source EPSN.com
A few info nuggets.
ECU defense is giving up an avg of 24.6 points a game
Rushing yards allowed per game is 109.
Passing yards allowed per game is 278.
Offensively
Rushing yards: 165/game
Passing yards: 309/game
#11 (Isaiah Winstead) is their top receiver at 719 yards this season
#2 (Keaton Mitchell is their leading rusher at 582 yards this season
Wins against:
Old Dominion (3-3, Sun Belt)
Campbell (4-2, Big South)
USF (1-6, AAC)
Memphis (4-3, AAC)
Losses Against:
NC State (5-2, ACC)
Tulane (5-1, AAC)
Navy (2-4, AAC)
Source EPSN.com
I don’t think they will be gassed. 4 OTs is just 4 possessions. Equivalent to a quarter with no kicks or punts.
ECU is no slouch and this is a certified trap game for UCF. We are favored to win this but we are already looking ahead of our schedule. We are looking at Cinci and Tulane but we still have ECU in front of us. ECU at ECU. UCF and ECU have been rivals since 2005. If you have the opportunity, games in Dowdy Ficklin are a lot of fun and their fans have more class than FAU.
After this season, I want to see ECU, Memphis, and Temple being the bullies of our conference. I will watch a handful of the AAC games just to see some of the OG AAC teams knock some sense into the incoming teams. I think it will still be an exciting conference to watch.
After this season, I want to see ECU, Memphis, and Temple being the bullies of our conference. I will watch a handful of the AAC games just to see some of the OG AAC teams knock some sense into the incoming teams. I think it will still be an exciting conference to watch.
I agree. In a way I'm kind of sad to leave it. I wonder hypothetically with the 12 team playoff, if TX/OK had stayed in the b12 and it had not expanded, what the AAC's chances would be in getting into the playoff. With access for anyone who can get ranked high enough, and a bid for the top G5 winner, would recruiting improve dramatically for a hypothetical UCF still in the AAC?
Or would the new CFP ceiling for G5s just move from 7 to 15....
I felt the expanded playoff could be a real equalizer if done properly, but you know that means they'll do it in whatever alternate way that preserves the entrenched powers.
Ahler's separated his right shoulder in the first game and has been playing with the injury ever since. He's tuff as nails and plays thru the injury. We have a couple of portal transfers and ride receiver that have made a big impact. WInstead # 11 is NFL caliber (graduate student) 6'5 about 215 is a frisbee catching dog and Johnson a transfer has a knack of getting open. We have a true freshman from Louisiana that is had an impact Molton Gunn. Our # 1 RB MItchell has city speed and the moves to go with it.
Mitchell
The weather will be great mid 40's at K.O. so the football should mirror the weather.
Mitchell
The weather will be great mid 40's at K.O. so the football should mirror the weather.
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Thanks for the update….I think a lot of us miss you guys coming over here and participating. Your moderator on this site screwed everyone over. It was quite the turf war in the late 00’s. We need the W here.
Mid 40s is cold for our guys. Of course a night kickoff when a cold front moves through.
That’s a good point, weather could def hurt us more than it hurts them. Catching balls in cold weather just ain’t the same for these FL kids especially. Did anyone see the Devonta Smith clip a couple weeks ago when it got cold up there? He was on sidelines and warm up ball just bouncing off his hands lol. He kept complaining it was too cold, I’ll try to find it I was amazed and amused.
I want to say it shouldn’t matter, but I think I still PTSD from growing up with the Bucs (IN THE NFC NORTH BTW) couldn’t win a game in the 40s or below. God that sucked.
Game will start in the 60s and drop into the 50s as the night goes on. Sounds like perfect football weather.
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