SIM TIME!!! Cinci. (added Notre Dame/SU, OSU/WV...)

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

SIM TIME!!! Cinci.
(Click on images to expand ALL scores)

Last week, My sim predicted 35-22 with Milton starting on a calm day. The real score was 35-24. I am of the belief that my math is pretty damn sound at this point now 8 games in and each has been close in score, where they weren't (SC state and Temple) it was close in terms of spread. Trends have been captured and applied to this week's sims.

Milton starting, no rain: UCF 33-20
Milton starting, rain: UCF 30-23
Milton starting, wind: UCF 30-17
Avg: UCF 31-20

MY Spread is UCF -11

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

So which of these is with the expected weather?

 

[Happy Hands]

I only like the ones where we win by 30. I'm tired of your sim being fairly accurate and making my Saturdays harder.

 

[thespiritof1976]

I only like the ones where we win by 30. I'm tired of your sim being fairly accurate and making my Saturdays harder.

yea, I'm a nervous wreck during these games. But thankfully my Sunday's make up a bit for it since the Bucs suck so I don't have to stress about how they continue to lose.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

So which of these is with the expected weather?

Saturday should be sunny and clear, would be first line of scores.

Second line is rain. Can tell it skews everything. Could go one way, or another...or nowhere at all.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

I'll take 33-20.

 

[SimpleJack53]

Awesome work. Thanks.

 

[beelit47]

For some reason this game has the feel of our first game against memphis last year. Big crowd, prime time, but with added emotion of whats on the line on prime time tv. I can see us trade blows for a quarter and the. A big run plus a big turnover putting the wheels in motion.

 

[Poolside Knight]

I only like the ones where we win by 30. I'm tired of your sim being fairly accurate and making my Saturdays harder.

+1

the nerves need a 45-17 sim

 

[bluechip12]

Looks good to me. Do you find your sim generally agrees with Vegas?

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Looks good to me. Do you find your sim generally agrees with Vegas?

Plus or minus a bit. Last week it didn't...Vegas had a -25, I was saying it was closer to -15 based on my averages. But the final came to be nearly identical to my "Milton-Calm Day" score, even less of a spread with a -11.

This week? 8-11 points I think is fair. I believe it will be low scoring with Cinci using ball-control similar to NAVY.

 

[akahotsizzle]

The weather is going to be epic from the forecast. Should be clear and in the upper 50's.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Houston/Tulane Sim:
1st line: Clear
2nd line: Rain
3rd line: Wind

 

[firm_bizzle]

Most of these require RS to hold them under 30. Is that possible?

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Most of these require RS to hold them under 30. Is that possible?

Absolutely...if Tulane goes run and uses ball control. Just like UCF/Navy. Even if UCF scored on each possession, that clock was running when Navy had the ball. It worked out how I expected. I see Houston/Tulane as similar. Houston is efficient, Tulane will try to keep them from having the ball.

 

[akahotsizzle]

Most of these require RS to hold them under 30. Is that possible?

No, no it is not. I think even if we play the RS adjustment game in the second half, we still give up 21-24 in the first half. I find it difficult to imagine we hold them to less than 10-14 in the second half. I feel it will be similar to the Temple game.

I'll say 49 - 38, with the Knights trailing in the first half but outpacing the Bearcats in the second half to ultimately win. This would also match @Mr. Knightman prediction of the 11 point spread.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Houston/Tulsa Sim:

Can you sim Houston vs Tulane, since that's who Houston is playing?

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Bwahaahah!!! Oops.

Damn schools that start with TU....

Most certainly...

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Bwahaahah!!! Oops.

Damn schools that start with TU....

Most certainly...

Fixed
And I was talking "SMU" above...need more coffee. Fixed that too...I fixed EVERYTHING.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Wow, the only pattern I can pick up on in the Tulane/UH sims is that Tulane is favored in a tight game, but expect it to be a blowout one way or the other.

Pivotal game on who will represent the West in the AAC CCG. It's basically an elimination game for one of those two teams. When you look at SMU's schedule and see that they have tie-breakers over both these teams.

BTW, could you run SMU/Memphis. That's the other piece of the West race.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

SMU/Memphis

 

[SublimeKnight]

Another toss up, with blowouts both directions. THIS is going to be a fun week of AAC football!!

 

[Knight Strength]

Another toss up, with blowouts both directions. THIS is going to be a fun week of AAC football!!

Or depressing

 

[bignow]

SIM TIME!!! Cinci.
(Click on images to expand ALL scores)

Last week, My sim predicted 35-22 with Milton starting on a calm day. The real score was 35-24. I am of the belief that my math is pretty damn sound at this point now 8 games in and each has been close in score, where they weren't (SC state and Temple) it was close in terms of spread. Trends have been captured and applied to this week's sims.

Milton starting, no rain: UCF 33-20
Milton starting, rain: UCF 30-23
Milton starting, wind: UCF 30-17
Avg: UCF 31-20

MY Spread is UCF -11

Knights 34-13 would be nice! The energy of the stadium should be higher than USF last year and absolutely rocking! I don't think Cinci knows what they are walking into.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]