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SIM TIME!!!! NAVY

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anon_x731qvsnsyb8i

Diamond Knight
Sep 1, 2006
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SIM TIME!!! NAVY.



Pardon delays of course, waited on CFP rankings to plug into the spreadsheets. Had to modify some discipline here and there...reduce UCF's defense a little (have to be honest here).

Last week's predictions were not close in score, but close in spread. A few models ran showed a high score...but I don't think we expected it to get THAT high in yards and score. Neither did the computer.

Anyway, 30% chance of rain on Saturday.

Milton starting, no rain: UCF 35-22
Milton starting, with rain: UCF 29-13
Milton starting, with wind: UCF 34-18
Avg: UCF 33-18
Avg Spread: UCF -15 (in this virtual universe)

I still think with Milton back, this can get to the 40s, low 50s...

BUT, each team UCF plays is going to "play up" to play spoiler and the math shows the results above if I factor that into player discipline.

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Awesome! For the sims that showed Navy winning, were there any circumstances you plugged in that helped make this happen? (whether, injury to key player, etc.)

Great work, once gain!
 
Renegade2007 said:
Awesome! For the sims that showed Navy winning, were there any circumstances you plugged in that helped make this happen? (whether, injury to key player, etc.)

Great work, once gain!
Click to expand...

Nothing special, only thing to keep in mind is UCF's capabilities against the run. Judging by Memphis' success, I think Navy could have similar success on the ground.

I average each line of scores. First is normal weather, second is rain, third is with wind.
 
Navy is dangerous, I don't care their record. Especially since our run defense has been exposed. Thank God we don't have to contend with a great passing attack.
 
Mr. Knightman said:
Nothing special, only thing to keep in mind is UCF's capabilities against the run. Judging by Memphis' success, I think Navy could have similar success on the ground.

I average each line of scores. First is normal weather, second is rain, third is with wind.
Click to expand...

Not withstanding Navy ball control why are UCF scores so low? Cinnci just hung 42 on them.......
 
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JAFFX2 said:
Not withstanding Navy ball control why are UCF scores so low? Cinnci just hung 42 on them.......
Click to expand...

Cincy is 13th in the nation against the run giving up 103 yards a game, Navy ranks 3rd in rushing averages 287 yards a game.

Navy rushed 52 times for 124 yards in that game.
 
Gwoz said:
Cincy is 13th in the nation against the run giving up 103 yards a game, Navy ranks 3rd in rushing averages 287 yards a game.

Navy rushed 52 times for 124 yards in that game.
Click to expand...
You really didn't address my question......Sure that is a consideration, but are you really suggesting that the #102 defense is gonna hold UCF to less than 40 points at home? Seriously????? We put up 31 on a much better Navy team on the road last year......
 
JAFFX2 said:
Not withstanding Navy ball control why are UCF scores so low? Cinnci just hung 42 on them.......
Click to expand...

There are a couple scores in there that are about that high. Could argue that as always a probable outcome. I do think UCF wins by more than 20, I also think more points are entirely possible in garbage time to put it in the 50s. Navy will want to spoil. I think they do play UCF close for a little while.
 
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JAFFX2 said:
You really didn't address my question......Sure that is a consideration, but are you really suggesting that the #102 defense is gonna hold UCF to less than 40 points at home? Seriously????? We put up 31 on a much better Navy team on the road last year......
Click to expand...

Navy's defense is keeping possession of the ball. Cincy split TOP in that game. Navy will be able to move the ball, and should really limit the possessions in the game.
 
Gwoz said:
Navy's defense is keeping possession of the ball. Cincy split TOP in that game. Navy will be able to move the ball, and should really limit the possessions in the game.
Click to expand...

I understand what you are trying to say, but Navy TOP should not limit UCF scoring as being projected in the simulations as I am contending.....Your logic doesn't support it either. Just look at the Temple game, UCF TOP was barely over 20 minutes, Temple TOP was 16 minutes more, yet our offense is so fast and potent that we put up 52 points against a much better defense than the Navy defense with limited TOP. Even playing the TOP game, Navy's defense should not hold our offense under 40. Sure it is possible, but certainly not logical...........
 
Reading about the Cincy game, they were embarrassed last year and spent all year working on revenge v. Navy. So, they formed a D that obviously worked. Here's hoping our coaches don't think Navy is just another team and form a new D like Cincy did. Somehow, I don't think our coaches are that stupid, so this will not even be close.
 
The Bearcats changed their defense for the rematch, adding a linebacker to put eight players up front, and they overpowered Navy’s running game while pulling away to a home victory on Saturday.

A 42-32 loss at Annapolis last year stuck with them all offseason. Coach Luke Fickell started preparing Cincinnati (8-1, 4-1 American) to face the option during spring and fall practice.
 
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JAFFX2 said:
The Bearcats changed their defense for the rematch, adding a linebacker to put eight players up front, and they overpowered Navy’s running game while pulling away to a home victory on Saturday.

A 42-32 loss at Annapolis last year stuck with them all offseason. Coach Luke Fickell started preparing Cincinnati (8-1, 4-1 American) to face the option during spring and fall practice.
Click to expand...
Who doesn’t play 8 players up front against navy?
 
80'sKnight said:
Reading about the Cincy game, they were embarrassed last year and spent all year working on revenge v. Navy. So, they formed a D that obviously worked. Here's hoping our coaches don't think Navy is just another team and form a new D like Cincy did. Somehow, I don't think our coaches are that stupid, so this will not even be close.
Click to expand...
The triple option can make any unprepared coaches look stupid. Navy averaged 6.1 yards per carry against Notre Dame. The loss against Cincinnati was the first game back for Navy QB Zach Abey who has the second highest single season rushing total in Navy football history. Navy's defense occasionally shows up, and held Temple to 24 points, Memphis 21. Classic trap game.
 
Mr. Knightman said:
Don't get me wrong now, I hope the score is 62-0....

That said, I see the spread closer to 15-20, if 25 or more it is from garbage time.
Click to expand...

I hope so also....I don't know what kind of models they use to establish the spreads but they are typically pretty damn accurate......right now it is at -25
 
My NCAA Football 13 sim has UCF winning this week 52-27 (said 49-21 UCF for the Temple game).
 
Poolside Knight said:
Your Sims don't think UCF is a Top 10 team apparently
Click to expand...

That's a subjective value. I will say each and every game we have been favored and won. Each and every game (using the math at this point ) is a UCF favor after tomorrow...from a 4-5 point spread with Cinci to 12 points with USF...(subject to change).

So if that holds true? One thing the media fails to do with all the SOS talk is account for teams playing up at the end of the season to play spoiler with undefeated teams or teams vying for spots in bowls. That is a very real phenomena that I consider.
 
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